Post by Drifter on Dec 17, 2016 12:44:34 GMT
... I did a hurried, cheap, back-of-the-envelope analysis that took about 2 minutes to perform. I had no idea posters would take the numbers so literally.
... Using a computer, I suppose it might be possible to perform a multivariate analysis on the reasons, such that y = x1, x2, x3, x4 ... xn. But if posters can't accept the logic of a simple binary string operation, it's statistically "unlikely" that they will accept a far more complex math analysis. ...
you're arguing from a stance that can be formulated as: Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary causes.
Where's your extraordinary evidence?
The fact that some 40 rapes and 10 murders have gone unsolved for 30 to 40 years. That fact is evidence.
Similar circumstances in other cases turned out to have non-extraordinary causes.
So you are saying that there are other cases involving some 40 rapes that occurred in one jurisdiction and ~ 10 murders that occurred in three additional jurisdictions, committed by the same person, and wherein the perp went unidentified for at least 30 years?
Kindly name me those "similar" cases.
Any of N ... My impression is that you are in denial. As I have clearly said above, the chances for the perp being a generic criminal will always be greater than zero. Yet, those people who prefer and believe that the perp is generic will not admit that there is any statistical chance that the guy was a VIP; hence, the denial.
Many people are in denial, and those who are most in denial are those people who have some interaction with current law enforcement. Neither the people who hero worship LE nor LE people themselves seem able to accept the obvious fact of this case, namely that this prolific offender has not been identified in 40 years. That fact is not just some bookish footnote.
It's the entire case.
What would it take, exactly, for you to concede that the EAR/ONS might be a VIP? My guess is that you will never concede that, and even if you do, you will immediately come up with a reason why it almost certainly can't be true.
Maybe the circumstances aren't so terribly extraordinary after all.
In my opinion the circumstances are quite extraordinary. But maybe the perp is not so terribly extraordinary; time will tell ... if the case is ever solved.
Until such time that the guy is identified and prosecuted, there will remain a statistical chance that he is just another generic criminal. There will also remain a statistical chance that he is or was being protected.
Not to accept this mathematical reality is the very definition of denial.
Drifter