Could another EAR type case ever exist?

[northernjustice]

And for that matter, could any of the known serial killers from the heyday in the 1970's and 80's operate successfully today?

- Almost all people, both rich and poor, carry cellphones, which not only make it easier to call for help, but they also transmit a signal that can indicate where someone is located, or at least their last known location.

- Traffic and security cameras. Many cities have stoplights with cameras on them and security cameras are outside and inside of most stores. There are also some homes, apartment complexes, etc. with them. The likelihood of a murderer or his car being identified on camera and pieced together with other bits of footage is probable in many areas.

- The proliferation of serial killer knowledge. There will always be naive people, but I believe the world was more naive about some of the potential evils that existed around them in past decades. Most people past a certain age have heard stories, seen documentaries, or otherwise absorbed cultural knowledge of serial killers and even some of their MOs, so in theory they may take greater precaution.

- More outlets for deviant behavior? I pose this one as a question because I don't know if it factors in or not. There have always been underground channels for some of the most extreme deviant behavior, sexual and otherwise, but it is much easier to access now and in wider variety. I'm not sure that any amount of pornography, music, art, movies, books, or other stimulating material could ever satiate someone who is driven by this level of darkness, though. It's also potentially controversial, as some could say that the proliferation of this type of material could encourage more people to act on it. I could see it going both ways.

- Better mental health care? Again , this one could be controversial, as some consider the state of mental health treatment today to be very poor. That may be true, but I still believe it is better than the type of care that would have been available to someone in the 1960's or early 70's, presumably when the EAR first began to exhibit problems inwardly if not outwardly.

- Urban sprawl. There are fewer and fewer areas untouched by people. This didn't matter to someone like the EAR, who thrived in populated areas, but many serial killers have used remote areas to their advantage and it's becoming harder to do that without inevitably running into some of what I've discussed in the points above.

- Forensic science. This is one of the biggest and most obvious, but it's amazing to think of how far it has come. Not just DNA and materials, but also digital forensics and forensic accounting. Everything is traceable and information databases can quickly do work that would have taken months or years otherwise -- if it was even possible at all.

While we may not be fully up to speed on solving past cases (the EAR being the best example), it's clear that the world is much less friendly for the lone predator. We have more mass shooters, but I don't believe they have the same pathology as serial killers. They lack the highly fetishized, ritualistic MO of virtually all lone wolf serial killers and their motivations are entirely different. They focus more on instant gratification and want to go out in a blaze of "glory", while the serial killer will spend insane amounts of time working his way through his various processes. The mass shooter also typically wants his name and face out there, and though some killers flirt with the media and taunt LE, they don't want to be known because that means being stopped.

It makes me wonder, too. Serial killers didn't just come out of a vacuum and there must still be a significant number of people with these traits what are they doing today? Are they not acting on their impulses because of some combination of the reasons I listed above? Are they getting caught in most cases before they're able to do more harm? I would never say that another EAR couldn't exist and we know that serial killers will unfortunately always exist in some form, but I suppose there is some peace in knowing it is a much harder road for them, assuming they don't find a way to take advantage of the same things that seem to stop them.

[tmacchallenger]

Off the top of my head, and I can't think of any specific names or cases to look up, but every once in awhile I'll come across a news article about how a guy has been arrested for murder. When reading about these recent homicides, the person is usually caught before too long by DNA, survillance cameras, or cell phone tracking. I always think to myself how lucky society is that modern technology stops a lot of the mutants before they can go on a real killing spree.

Just this last winter in Chicago, a young grade school girl was raped and beaten so badly that it was thought that she would die. This happened in the very early morning hours while she was on her way to school. Her neighbor found her in his yard, half naked and covered in her own blood. A little under two weeks later DNA came in and the scumbag was identified and arrested. He had a long rap sheet but only one sexual arrest that was a molestation charge that got thrown out in court. Lord only knows what this guy could have gotten away with without the DNA technology.

Assuming that was his only rape, he could have very well been on his way to becoming a serial rapist murderer if not caught. I believe he was in his late twenties.

[thrax]

Sept 9, 2014 10:30:33 GMT @gofigure1 said:

GSK last murder was in 1986... Thats why he stopped... My question is -was DNA in the news in 1985? I dont remember.. GSK knew.. Which makes me think he was well aware of medical advances with DNA and solving crimes

There are a lot of major assumptions in those statements, and they aren't really required to explain what we see. The guy had already (apparently) stopped for years before the last murder. It's pretty clear that he had been slowing down a lot anyway. Is it possible that learning about DNA profiling caused him to stop? Sure. But when you have a massive flurry of activities that suddenly slows down a lot, then apparently stops, and then there's one more known incident, the more interesting in question in this case isn't what made him stop after 1986, but what happened after 1981...

Perhaps the guy had some sort of medical or scientific knowledge that made him stop due to fear of DNA testing. There's nothing here that makes it appear all that likely though.

[Deleted]

Sept 9, 2014 10:30:33 GMT @gofigure1 said:

So I just read an article about the history of DNA testing ... It all started in 1985 ---the first time it was used to convict someone was in 1987.. GSK last murder was in 1986... Thats why he stopped... My question is -was DNA in the news in 1985? I dont remember.. GSK knew.. Which makes me think he was well aware of medical advances with DNA and solving crimes..Was his dad a doctor? Or some faimly member (cant get away with rape and murders as easy) He probably has a hissy fit.. BIG TIME.. the crimes stopped.

Im thinking I heard information regarding in the early days of DNA testing that if a male had a vasectomy that he wouldnt have DNA in his semen.. But of course thats not true today or then I guess... If GSK stopped his crimes in 1986 due to DNA did he also get a vasectomy at some point because he thought his DNA wouldnt show up?


Its getting late and my mind starts thinking of all kind of scenarios... sorry

Correct me if I'm wrong, but being a non-secretor, his semen would not be viable for DNA testing. And if it were somehow, a vasectomy would eliminate any sperm from his ejaculate and therefore erase any means of collecting DNA. I think that blood would be the only way one could eliminate or identify him. 

[thrax]

No, it's still quite possible to generate a profile from someone who has had a vasectomy. This is true whether or not you're a secretor. It's more annoying to do, but absolutely possible if the lab is willingly go to the effort. And if a body turned up with a seven sample that didn't return anything useful when tested, you can just about guarantee the lab techs are going to get annoyed by this and take a closer look.

[pendleton]

Great post Northern, a lot of things to think about and discuss. My 2.5 cents on a few things you mentioned:

Cell Phones:

It's true that most people have cell phones these days and that cell phone records, tower pings and and the ability to call for help has prevented and solved a lot of murders. It always amazes me the number of murderers that kill someone, take their cell phone and use it to call their mother or girlfriend. Sometimes I forget that the reason why a lot of these people turn to crime is because they're just plain stupid. The problem with cell phones and in particular smart phones is that nobody looks up from them. Here in the city we have a problem with people getting run over because they step into traffic while looking at their phones and a recent report has indicated that using your smart phone while driving is as dangerous as driving drunk. It's hard for a a potential witness to describe a suspect when they never bothered to look up from their game of Candy Crush. Cell phones also provide offenders with a new level of anonymity. They can call and harass at will on a cell phone or burner phone without much fear of being identified/located. Cell phones would have been little use in the EAR/ONS attacks. He attacked people in their homes in their beds and no one seemed to get a good look at him. Something tells me that if cell phones were available back when EAR was offending, he would be calling his victims from their own backyard or rooftop. Just to watch their reaction.

Security Cameras:

Security cameras are incredible investigative tools. I'm amazed at some of the security camera installations they have in the UK. You can almost literally follow a person across the country with them. This was evident in the aftermath of the London bus and subway bombing where footage was collected tracking the suspects from outside London right to their targets and beyond. The only problem with security cameras is that most are still very low resolution (which is surprising in this age of dirt cheap technology). The number of times I've seen security camera footage or stills that are worse than the Paterson Gimilin film I can't count. But they're great for establishing timelines.

The Proliferation of serial killer knowledge:

This has to make a difference. In less than 40 years we've gone from the average person or even LE asking, "What the heck's a serial killer?" to every other single woman living alone naming their dog Dexter. There are problems with this wealth of information though. First, it's available to offenders too. With all the information on crimes, forensics, investigations and investigative techniques available to anyone I think it would be very difficult to say, "This offender has had some form of LE or military training". The chances are that a serial offender is going to be far more knowledgable about the subject than the average LE officer simply because that is his obsession and these types of offences are too rare for the average LE to have much experience in. Another problem with the modern obsession with serial killers and crime comes up in the courtroom. I can't count the number of detectives and lawyers I've heard express their extreme exasperation with shows like CSI. Every jury wants DNA and blood splatter evidence and ballistics to all be available and all point to the offender. In many cases it's simply not there. Also LE and those in forensics have had to admit that most of forensic science isn't science at all. It's an art form. This is why the FBI's BSU (Behavioural Science Unit) has changed it's name to the BAU (Behaviour Analysis Unit) and an NSA report released in 2009 went further to point out that many forensic investigative tools are far from scientific and are open to much speculation and personal opinion. That being said, DNA has been an incredible forensic tool and the technology seems to be coming along in leaps and bounds. Hopefully uncovering the flaws in forensics will lead to the overhauling or fine tuning of those techniques. I've already seen some amazing advancements in fingerprint technology that use bioreplication to better read fingerprints on irregular surfaces.

More Outlets for Deviant Behaviour:

This is a tough one. It seems everything is on the internet. Every fetish, kink, paraphilia, morbid obsession and hate group has numerous websites now. What's that rule they say about the internet? If you can think of it, there's already a website devoted to it? I think the internet is going a long way towards both desensitizing people to extreme real violence and pornography. I also think that it's causing people to become much more fetish oriented. The internet allows people to explore their sexuality and sexual interests online with anonymity in the relative comfort of their own homes. Although I'd say this same phenomenon has given rise to more social tolerance towards other's sexual identity I wonder what the fallout will be for a generation that has been allowed to explore every facet of their own sexuality to a point that their sexual tastes become so specific they become fetishized. I recently read a good example of this in a study of teenage sexuality that reported more teenage girls were being pressured into anal sex by boys who had become obsessed with it from watching internet pornography and pressure from other male friends who were also interested in it. One of the problems with the internet age is that even people with the most deviant fantasies and behaviours can almost instantly find a peer group that shares their disturbing fantasies and promotes them. One of the most mainstream examples of these groups is pedophiles. Does the internet provide a less harmful outlet for child sex fantasies or does it create networks of offenders who work together to exploit children? Also does the internet help catch more of these predators because it lures them into the open and makes their actions traceable? I don't think we'll ever have proper statistics on that. There are just too many variables.

Better Mental Health Care:

I would say that mental health care today is better than it used to be (but keep in mind I'm Canadian). I think the stigma and the shame associated with mental health problems is finally starting to abate in society. Many high profile people are speaking about it and that trickles down. The biggest problem with mental health care is identifying that someone has a problem and then convincing them and those around them that it is a problem. I do think great strides have been made though. Especially with children. Teaching methods and support for children in schools has changed dramatically in the past 50 years and I think we're starting to see the results. Children appear much less violent then they used to be and they are more able to speak about their feelings. But the pace of the modern world provides new challenges to mental health. People are living their life in a very fast paced environment today. They seem to want to cram as much living into their day as they can. And with the rise of social surrogates like Facebook, the concept of a fulfilling life has become increasingly superficial. It remains to be seen what type of mental health problems our knew, technology driven society will create.

I can't really comment on urban sprawl. Being Canadian I live in the third largest city in North America yet I'm about an hours drive away from remote wilderness. I will say that an offender like EAR/ONS can definitely operate in modern society and their are many offenders doing just that. An easy example right here on this board is the West End Prowler we're experiencing here in Toronto. His MO is very similar to EAR and he is escalating. Interestingly enough and to come full circle back to some of your original ideas, here's a link to a security camera video shot last year showing this same West End Prowler entering a neighbour's yard while on his cell phone!

www.torontosun.com/2013/07/10/toronto-police-release-video-of-suspect-in-etobicoke-break-ins

Overall I'd say that advancements in technology does change the rules of the game for these offenders (hopefully in LE's favour) but I don't think it will stop them from offending. The idea that EAR/ONS had some knowledge of DNA testing when it was still in it's infancy in 1986 is an interesting concept and even plausible but I doubt it is what caused him to stop. He was so driven by his obsession and fantasies that he was willing to risk his life over and over to satiate himself. He may have adapted but I don't think there's any way he would have willing stopped on his own. Another wonderful trait of the human animal; adaptability.

I just realized I've gone on a bit here but I really think there's some great points to talk about in Northernjustice's original post. We spend so much time delving into the past on this board that it's refreshing to contemplate the here and now and the future. Thanks again Northern. Great post.

[tmacchallenger]

Offenders like EAR will always exist. Could someone get away with all the crimes that he committed in these modern times? Not very likely. I believe he would have been caught back then if LE had the computer technology available to them like they do now.

IMHO pornography has probably helped keep a lot of the weirdos from doing the strange things that they do. Less violent peepers, stranger stalkers, and other deviants don't seem to be as prevelant as they once were. Why risk getting caught spying on your neighbor when you can just get your jollies on the internet? Unless you wanted to go to a sticky porno theater, options were far more limited back in the 1960's and 70's.

[tongue]

i highly doubt ONS would have made it too far into his rape phase with the way modern technology is..imo visalia ransacker was the Ear/Ons so to commit that many crimes without detection these days is unlikely..with the security systems avail, i dont see it happening..sure, this also means the offender is smarter but he can only have so much knowledge to help him against the arsenal that LE has..

you now seem to have your long-haul serial killers though, driving from state to state dumping bodies...

i also agree, the massive amount of fetish pornography found online is probably a good thing for normal citizens as it gives future serial killers a way to vent their sexual urges..

i also think that bigg pharma throwing out tons of ssris and other medications to 'troubled youths' has killed a lot of potential serial killers sex drives..if you would have given ONS a script for Paxil in his youth, he wouldnt have had any urge to rape or prowl...

[northernjustice]

Sept 9, 2014 15:49:57 GMT pendleton said:

Great post Northern, a lot of things to think about and discuss. My 2.5 cents on a few things you mentioned:

Wow, Pendleton, thank you for the thoughtful reply. This is exactly the kind of conversation I was hoping to bring out.

You did a great job pointing out many of the limitations within these technological/cultural developments and the double-edged sword that some of them create, despite the fact that we may be safer on the whole. One thing I always need to keep in mind is that the prolific serial killers and criminals have always been ahead of the curve and quite ingenuous. While it's hard for me to imagine someone being able to compete with modern technology and increased public awareness, the scary thing is that we never know the ways that someone can get around these things until it's too late. I am sure I will have more thoughts on this later, but for now I think we can look at this not just as it relates to the present and future, but also past cases. Would EAR have had less success because of these factors... would he have had to adjust his MO significantly, or was he just freaky enough to do what he wants regardless of the world around him?

I live in a fairly suburban area with older, middle class homes and sometimes when I'm walking home from the bar I will look around and be kind of amazed at how vulnerable people's homes are. Many of these homes have been around since the EAR's time and aren't substantially different. Automatic lights might help keep some people away, but people have become used to animals and any other movement triggering these. The average person probably doesn't have an alarm system. Hell, I see people who leave the bottom of their garages open all the time to let their cats in and out. 

I was unfamiliar with this West End Prowler in your area and it's eerie seeing the video footage. I think many of us on here tend to have a more dramatized view of what the EAR did when he broke into a house, as few if any of us have actually seen a prowler in action and our vision is colored by fictional portrayals of criminals, but seeing a similar type of criminal prowling around a house so confidently like that brings it back to reality. 

[Deleted]

You can count on one thing, the police would be reviewing every bit of video footage from every camera in the area if a guy like EAR surfaced now. And somebody would use their cell phone to call the cops every time they saw someone suspicious in their neighborhood.

Good post.

[thrax]

Sept 9, 2014 20:20:24 GMT f1guyus said:

You can count on one thing, the police would be reviewing every bit of video footage from every camera in the area if a guy like EAR surfaced now. And somebody would use their cell phone to call the cops every time they saw someone suspicious in their neighborhood.

Good post.

Yup. Look at Dennis Rader. If he hadn't been so ignorant about metadata, he'd probably still have been busted eventually. In his day, a murderer didn't have to worry about surveillance cameras in every parking lot. The cops knew exactly what vehicle he was driving when he dropped off that package at the Home Depot.

This is why I doubt that EAR would ever even consider communicating with the cops or posting on message boards or that sort of thing today. He probably is extremely aware of how many cold cases are being solved these days, and isn't about to do anything to hasten that. He's done, and will stay in hiding until he dies or gets caught.

[pendleton]

Sept 9, 2014 20:06:07 GMT northernjustice said:

Sept 9, 2014 15:49:57 GMT pendleton said:

Great post Northern, a lot of things to think about and discuss. My 2.5 cents on a few things you mentioned:

Wow, Pendleton, thank you for the thoughtful reply. This is exactly the kind of conversation I was hoping to bring out.

You did a great job pointing out many of the limitations within these technological/cultural developments and the double-edged sword that some of them create, despite the fact that we may be safer on the whole. One thing I always need to keep in mind is that the prolific serial killers and criminals have always been ahead of the curve and quite ingenuous. While it's hard for me to imagine someone being able to compete with modern technology and increased public awareness, the scary thing is that we never know the ways that someone can get around these things until it's too late. I am sure I will have more thoughts on this later, but for now I think we can look at this not just as it relates to the present and future, but also past cases. Would EAR have had less success because of these factors... would he have had to adjust his MO significantly, or was he just freaky enough to do what he wants regardless of the world around him?

I live in a fairly suburban area with older, middle class homes and sometimes when I'm walking home from the bar I will look around and be kind of amazed at how vulnerable people's homes are. Many of these homes have been around since the EAR's time and aren't substantially different. Automatic lights might help keep some people away, but people have become used to animals and any other movement triggering these. The average person probably doesn't have an alarm system. Hell, I see people who leave the bottom of their garages open all the time to let their cats in and out. 

I was unfamiliar with this West End Prowler in your area and it's eerie seeing the video footage. I think many of us on here tend to have a more dramatized view of what the EAR did when he broke into a house, as few if any of us have actually seen a prowler in action and our vision is colored by fictional portrayals of criminals, but seeing a similar type of criminal prowling around a house so confidently like that brings it back to reality. 

I agree with you that the increased security that modern technology brings about is definitely a benefit but I also agree with you that it's dependent on people actually using it. One of the most frightening similarities between the West End Prowler we have here and EAR is that the WEP tends to gain access to homes through unlocked doors and windows. 40 years on and that's still a viable MO, In a big city no less! It's like reading about all the neighbours back in CA who witnessed so much suspicious activity regarding the EAR but didn't call it in. Another thing I find maddening is how fractured LE still is on both sides of the border. In this modern information age criminal data should be available to LE world wide at the click of a mouse yet it's still so bogged down that the sharing of information between LE gets bogged down county to county, state to state in the US and province to province, region to region and even division to division here in Canada. I understand that a large part of it is the legal system but come on.

[IHateMiseryGimps]

With the Justin bibler type news we get,its a wonder we here anything of serial killers..we do here about people who disappear,or bones are found,but we never get a clear picture of whats going on,I remember the last total coverage of serial killings and it was wayne Williams,or maybe even Chandra levy missing,but those cases had race and politics going for them,but if you're just an average white girl who jumps in a VW for a ride and disappears? you'll probably just be a blurb on the news until someone figures it out..if they ever do!

FBI says 200+ active serial killers,and while that number is small?..the dead really add up..We only know about ONS since 2002..those cases were cold,and probably had suspects that the police really believed did the crimes..this case realty started when they matched the dna,time to put the evidence on tv and get this case solved..theres so much just in this forum that might jar some memories..

[pendleton]

Sept 9, 2014 22:15:22 GMT @gofigure1 said:

Im thinking he got married possibly...  Probably had a wife to fill his crazy a%% needs in the bedroom..

If EAR/ONS had a wife fulfilling his needs, she wouldn't have fulfilled them for long because she'd be dead.

[Deleted]

In my capacity as elderly curmudgeon I'll just point out that a system of global LE information sharing has real risks. Just deciding on an individual department basis what to share would be a real basket of snakes. Think Sac Sheriffs, Sac PD, and all the rest when EAR was offending. And the issue of corruption as well.