How Prolific Serial Rapists Tend to Be Caught

[Any of N]

In a word: cars.

This came up in the John Simonis discussion and may be worth a thread of its own. Recall the six prolific serial rapists that we often compare to the EAR: Delroy Grant, Robert Napper, Dennis Rabbitt, Ronnie Shelton, Simonis and Joe Thompson. Check out the table below for a synopsis of each and note particularly how the offenders were identified.

Offender	Major Crimes	How He Was Identified
Delroy Grant	Positively linked to four rapes and 30 other sexual assaults in South East London area over 19 years. Very likely more offenses.	Witnesses had seen a gunmetal gray Vauxhall Zafira near various crime scenes. A police stakeout noted such a vehicle and investigated.
Robert Napper	Officially 3 murders, 2 rapes and 1 attempted rape. Possibly committed another 70+ brutal sexual attacks as part of the Green Chain rape series of crimes. This spanned six years and occurred in and around London.	Fingerprints left at double-murder crime scene.
Dennis Rabbitt	Estimated to have raped more than 100 women over 25 years across three states (Missouri, Illinois, New Mexico).	Initially pulled over for having false license plates on his van near a crime scene. A detective later tracked him down following a lead to the plates.
Ronnie Shelton	At least 31 rape victims with 49 counts of rape in the Cleveland area in a crime spree that spanned six years.	The right rear quarter panel of his Monte Carlo was seen on an ATM camera when he used a stolen money card. A detective later spotted the car.
John Simonis	More than 75 rapes and sexual assaults covering at least 11 states spanning four years. (Includes Louisiana, Texas, Florida, Ohio).	His red Pontiac Trans Am stood out in a parking lot and was noticed by a police officer. After a rape occurred that night, the officer checked and found the victim's car where the Trans Am had been parked. LE eventually came across the car.
Joe Thompson	At least 68 sexual assault victims in South Auckland, New Zealand spanning 12 years.	Found as a result of a targeted DNA sweep. Prior burglary record made him a candidate for testing.

In four of the six cases it was about the offender's vehicle. In the other two cases, Napper and Thompson, the offender typically didn't drive to the victims' homes. So in all the cases above where the offender actually drove a car, it was the car that led to his undoing. That goes especially for the three Americans who were roughly contemporary to the EAR: Rabbitt, Shelton and Simonis. 

To answer that eternal question of how the EAR-ONS got away with his crimes for so long: He couldn't ever be traced back to a vehicle. Considering what happened to his highly successful peers, it would seem to be a big factor, wouldn't you say?

We have multiple threads already that discuss the EAR's possible strategies for untraceable transportation. I don't intend for this to be a re-re-rehash of that topic.  (Although it's relevant and can be included.)  Instead I'd like for the discussion to focus on a comparison among the offenders and what it may say about our guy.  

More to come. Looking forward to reading your thoughts.

[trabuco]

Sunny had a good description of the car that drove up to her house and she wrote down the plate number. I don't understand why Crompton allowed his personal opinion and thoughts become involved in her case. As for Sunny, it would not have mattered if she stared a maskless EAR in the face. If the lead detective has an issue with you and your credibility, the case is going no where and it didn't. I bet he never followed up on the car or the plates any further than finding them "salvaged". I'm not bashing LE I just wish they would have dug a little deeper into the salvaged car thing that EAR used as another mask. JMHO.

[intuitiva]

Feb 22, 2017 5:51:42 GMT Any of N said:

In a word: cars.

This came up in the John Simonis discussion and may be worth a thread of its own. Recall the six prolific serial rapists that we often compare to the EAR: Delroy Grant, Robert Napper, Dennis Rabbitt, Ronnie Shelton, Simonis and Joe Thompson. Check out the table below for a synopsis of each and note particularly how the offenders were identified.

Offender	Major Crimes	How He Was Identified
Delroy Grant	Positively linked to four rapes and 30 other sexual assaults in South East London area over 19 years. Very likely more offenses.	Witnesses had seen a gunmetal gray Vauxhall Zafira near various crime scenes. A police stakeout noted such a vehicle and investigated.
Robert Napper	Officially 3 murders, 2 rapes and 1 attempted rape. Possibly committed another 70+ brutal sexual attacks as part of the Green Chain rape series of crimes. This spanned six years and occurred in and around London.	Fingerprints left at double-murder crime scene.
Dennis Rabbitt	Estimated to have raped more than 100 women over 25 years across three states (Missouri, Illinois, New Mexico).	Initially pulled over for having false license plates on his van near a crime scene. A detective later tracked him down following a lead to the plates.
Ronnie Shelton	At least 31 rape victims with 49 counts of rape in the Cleveland area in a crime spree that spanned six years.	The right rear quarter panel of his Monte Carlo was seen on an ATM camera when he used a stolen money card. A detective later spotted the car.
John Simonis	More than 75 rapes and sexual assaults covering at least 11 states spanning four years. (Includes Louisiana, Texas, Florida, Ohio).	His red Pontiac Trans Am stood out in a parking lot and was noticed by a police officer. After a rape occurred that night, the officer checked and found the victim's car where the Trans Am had been parked. LE eventually came across the car.
Joe Thompson	At least 68 sexual assault victims in South Auckland, New Zealand spanning 12 years.	Found as a result of a targeted DNA sweep. Prior burglary record made him a candidate for testing.

In four of the six cases it was about the offender's vehicle. In the other two cases, Napper and Thompson, the offender typically didn't drive to the victims' homes. So in all the cases above where the offender actually drove a car, it was the car that led to his undoing. That goes especially for the three Americans who were roughly contemporary to the EAR: Rabbitt, Shelton and Simonis. 

To answer that eternal question of how the EAR-ONS got away with his crimes for so long: He couldn't ever be traced back to a vehicle. Considering what happened to his highly successful peers, it would seem to be a big factor, wouldn't you say?

We have multiple threads already that discuss the EAR's possible strategies for untraceable transportation. I don't intend for this to be a re-re-rehash of that topic.  (Although it's relevant and can be included.)  Instead I'd like for the discussion to focus on a comparison among the offenders and what it may say about our guy.  

More to come. Looking forward to reading your thoughts.

I would add: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Williams_(criminal)

[Drifter]

It's amazing how dumb generic criminals can be. And cops are no dummies.

Considering what happened to his highly successful peers, it would seem to be a big factor, wouldn't you say?

No, I would not.

You're making the same assumption that other posters make about childhood abuse. Since other serial criminals were abused as children, the EAR/ONS must also have been abused as a child.

The person who committed the Sacramento rapes and the southern California murders has a brain, a personality, a childhood background that is unlike any other; it is unique. Comparing the EAR/ONS to other rapists or other murderers can lead to false conclusions about the perp.

But the topic of your thread is new, and I have no doubt that other posters will agree with your analysis.

So continue.

Drifter 

[winters]

I don't see this car angle so much as a commentary on actual characteristics of the perpetrators, as much as I see it a commentary on which types of witness descriptions or physical evidence can be most useful if the usual methods fail.

I agree that this offender clearly did something right in regards to his vehicle (and with a LOT of potential physical evidence), which made this method of discovery (among many other methods of investigation) worthless. Whether he rotated vehicles like he did ski masks, traveled exclusively on foot or bicycle, or was dropped off by someone or something else I don't know. Whatever he did, his vehicle ended up not being a liability to him.

[Any of N]

Intuitiva, thanks for the reminder about Russell Williams. To that we can apparently add the Early Bird Rapist,  who Shelby believes he identified in part through a sighting of the offender's van.  (Thanks to Bob for the info, here.)

Winters, what I think I'm seeing is that this is the primary method of discovery for elusive serial rapists. Why not toy around with making some deductions about our guy? It's like a subset of profiling but it's focused on one specific aspect of the case. Maybe it was as simple as him knowing a few things, maybe not.

In all due respect, Drifter, you're totally missing the point. What I am decidedly not saying is this: All these other prolific serial rapists were caught because they were linked to their vehicles, ergo the EAR-ONS will be caught that way. No, it's more like the opposite. What was different about the EAR-ONS that allowed him to avoid that fate?

In the very good Car Stuff  thread, the poster Xiulan had this to say:

I also remind myself EAR did have a normal life. School maybe, perhaps a part-time job, long hours of stalking, and he had to sleep sometime. I just can't see putting all these additional hours into running all over the place stealing cars perpetually, or even buying a new cheap one every couple of days or weeks. It just doesn't track for me.

Xiulan in Car Stuff Thread

Well maybe it should track for us. It's probably not a simple thing to hide your connection to a car. If it was just a matter of lucky circumstance, then that's interesting, too.

[westcoastcanuck]

Paul Bernardo should be on this list as well. 20ish rapes and at least three murders. Ultimately caught by DNA and by his wife/co-conspirator turning on him and cutting a deal. Should have been caught much earlier but wasn't due to police incompetence and him not looking the part.

[Any of N]

I haven't looked at Paul Bernardo yet, but I'll go with that, WCC. Our unofficial tally so far for serial rapists comparable to the EAR:

ID'ed via vehicles (7)	Grant, Rabbitt, Shelton, Simonis, Williams, Early Bird Rapist*
ID'ed by other means (3)	Bernardo, Napper, Thompson

_{* Not arrested and not made public, but Shelby believes they knew who EBR was.}

Over in another thread, Drifter asks us to carefully consider the "success in evasion." Fair enough. I've stated multiple times that I lean toward the EAR-ONS being a young knucklehead not much smarter than Shelton, but I'm willing to consider alternatives. So how did he did he pull it off and what might it say about him?

Methods for Vehicle Masking

Keep in mind that in California the license plates stay with the car for the life of the car.

The "Disposable Car" strategy that F1 describes (here) goes like this:

• Buy a cheap used car with cash from a private owner.
• Make sure the license tag still has a few months to go before it expires.
  
• Don't give the previous owner your real name.
• Don't fill out the paperwork to have the title transferred to your name.
• Viola, you now have a vehicle that can't be traced to you and won't get you pulled over.
  
• When the tag expires you can just get rid of the car and go buy a new one. Helps if you have plenty of money.
  

A different strategy was described by the short-time poster m22rockcrusher (here). We might call it "Plate Switcheroo."

• Steal the front plate from a car. Any old car; doesn't matter. We'll call it Stolen Plate #1.
• Find another car that matches the make, model and color of one you want to use in a crime. Swap front plates with the one you stole, above. The owner probably won't notice. Now you have Stolen Plate #2.
• Go to DMV and buy a tag for Stolen Plate #2 under pretense that the original tag was stolen.
• Put Stolen Plate #2 on the rear of your crime car.
• Viola, you now have a vehicle that can't be traced to you and won't get you pulled over.
  

In either scenario, everything will seem kosher if the police ever decide to run the plates. 

Then of course there's the decommissioned or "boneyard" plates strategy. See the post from guessting (here) where she quotes a detective who said, "the EAR seemed to have access to license plates on cars that were not registered."  In various threads, various posters expressed skepticism because unregistered plates would presumably get you pulled over.  A fair point, but our guy apparently employed that very strategy.

A Stray Thought

Driving with boneyard plates does seem odd as it entails much risk, and it got me to thinking. (And this is just me letting my imagination run wild.)

What if the EAR-ONS layered his strategies?  What if...  say... he took his precautions to such nerdy lengths that he swapped out three sets of plates per car? One set for when he had it parked at home. Another for when he drove it for nefarious purposes. A third for when he left it unattended near a targeted neighborhood. The boneyard plates would then be his thirds.

Surely everyone here has known a few of those people. Clever and passionate about their interests. Not autistic, but very knowledgeable and thorough. Always looking for a way to make it better. Don't let them get started talking or you'll never get away. Gets real nerdy real quick. I could cite examples but I'm sure you know what I mean. Often times they turn out to be engineers.

And that's an angle we might explore for a while. EAR-ONS: The Big Nerd.

[Any of N]

For a humorous example of the type, think Burt Gummer from the Tremors movies.

Cracked me up. I knew some guys from work like that.

[intuitiva]

Any - don't care what anyone says, Tremors is the best! lol

[Any of N]

Returning to this topic again. As Winters mentioned, we don't really know for sure how often the EAR drove a car. LE apparently thought he drove at least one type of vehicle regularly, as we learn from Richard Shelby who quote's from a consultant's report. From Chapter 49 of Hunting a Psychopath:

December 8, 1977
From Hugh S. Penn, Consultant
  
Subject: EAST AREA RAPIST

As noted before, almost every vehicle in the Blue Book has been sighted near the scenes of the crimes. However the only one that recurs with any degree of consistency is a Volkswagen. Two days before the −− case broke a neighbor, Charles Reynolds observed an old VW, dark green with gray rear wide fenders and wide tires, parked in the field behind the − residence at about 6:00 P.M. A neighborhood resident saw what he described as a silver blue VW without lights leaving the area sometime after 4 A.M. An investigating officer measured the width of the tire tracks and found them to be 4’ 9”. In the −- case footprints led across two fences to a dirt area, where tire tracks were found. These tracks measured 4’ 3” center to center. According to the officer who made the measurements VW wheels are 4’ 4 ¾”apart in front and 4” 3 ¾” in the rear. Assuming that the vehicle does have wide tires and the measurements in the −- case were from the edges of the tread instead of from the center, the two observations could be reconciled. In the Stockton incident Mr. −− heard what he identified as a VW engine start soon after the interloper left his house

Referring to ArKansas' very thorough spreadsheet, the various types of cars spotted near crime scenes are as follows. This is just a quick extraction of the car types.  For more details, see the spreadsheet.

Victim	FBI Map	Attack	Vehicle(s) Seen
EAR 1	1	1	dark, older American car
EAR 2	2	2	standard 4-speed
EAR 5	5	5	green 1952 Chevrolet coupe, possibly Chevrolet Vega
EAR 7	7	7	large American car
EAR 11	11	11	blue sedan
EAR 12	12	12	dark colored American car
EAR 13	13	13	white van; old yellow pickup (40's or early 50's)
EAR 14	15	14	yellow, older truck
EAR 15	16	15	White Chevy '72 or newer station wagon; older gray station wagon
EAR 16	17	16	dark (brown or purple) vehicle
EAR 17	18	17	light colored valiant
EAR 19	20	19	gray Plymouth
EAR 21	22	21	brown 60's or 70's Dodge Charger
EAR 22	23	22	Small VW or Porche
EAR 23	24	23	VW
EAR 26	27	26	large dark 4-door Dodge or Plymouth
EAR 28	29	28	van started up; dark blue van; beige station wagon; white station wagon; boxy white 2-door Datsun
EAR 31	33	30	old faded van; faded vw; old green Ford; '72 green Ford Pinto; early 60's tan or beige Toyota or Datsun
EAR 32	34	31	older Cadillac
EAR 33	35	32	sports car with deep exhaust
EAR 38	40	37	VW; white/aqua-green box-shaped van; older black or blue Ford Falcon; Green Fleetside Chevrolet pickup
EAR 40	42	39	cream colored Toyota Celica; '73 Chevrolet Vega
EAR 46	49	45	maroon Ranchero type car
EAR47	50	46	dark blue-green Chevy van, 3-5 yrs old
ONS 1-2	54	Off/Mann	white boxy Pinto or Honda
ONS 3-4	55	Smiths	white mid-70's Pontiac

We don't know how many of the vehicles were actually used by the EAR-ONS. Most of the above were merely suspicious vehicles seen or heard in the areas of the crimes. But I wanted to post the information here so we can refer back to it for the rest of the discussion.

[bobthebuilder]

In the 1970's even if you followed the vehicle, you didn't have the DNA to confirm you had the right guy.

[Any of N]

If I'm following you correctly, BtB, you're suggesting that, for all we know, EAR did indeed come to the attention of LE at least once via connection to a vehicle. Then he was wrongly eliminated as a suspect because they didn't have DNA testing back then.

Hadn't thought of that, to be honest. Where my mind goes is that a strong level of suspicion -- strong enough to warrant DNA testing if it were available -- would put the guy squarely on LE's radar.  Maybe they don't forget about him, so when he turns up again in the investigation they double-check his alibis.

Recall the Ronnie Shelton case again where the offender was known to have a wart on the end of his penis. LE officers back in the 80's not being as professional as they are now, they simply walked a suspect to the bathroom and had him drop his pants. You'd have a hard time convincing me that NorCal police in the 70's didn't do the same thing while looking for a... ahem... small clue. Not as definitive as DNA, but it's getting there.

[Any of N]

The basic facts of the case suggest that the EAR drove a vehicle frequently while planning and executing his crimes. Just consider the number, geographic spacing, and ordering of the attacks. It's not an absolute certainty, but it would be a big surprise if he didn't.

The more I think about it, the more remarkable it seems that he wasn't identified through a vehicle sighting. Cars and vans stand out. They make noise and leave evidence behind, like tire tracks. They also have to be registered and tagged. There should have been many, many opportunities for somebody to see something to pass along to LE. Something they could investigate.

We know about a couple of possible near misses. The big one concerns the Oldsmobile Coup. Here's Archangel from the old A&E forum, preserved on this message board by Drifter:

Car License Number TOR 505 (Del Dayo Area, Sacramento), by Archangel76

October 17, 1976 - Keane Drive

Suspicious vehicle seen in the vicinity of Keane Drive in the Del Dayo area of Carmichael at approx. 6:30am 35 years ago today. The driver of the vehicle was described as a white male with straight blonde hair in his middle 20's but could be old as 30.

Vehicle license number TOR 505 came back to a mid-to-late 60's model Oldsmobile Coupe. Investigators determined (through Field Interrogation cards) that the driver of the vehicle was a drug trafficker who frequented the area. Based on that, they determined that he was not involved in the EAR attack that occurred the next day.

In trying to follow up on that information, it was determined that the "drug trafficker" [Michael Manier] died in February of 1976 and therefore could not possibly be the person driving the vehicle on 10/17/76. As mentioned in another post, the vehicle registration records no longer exist and ownership of the vehicle cannot be tracked.

There is a strong likelihood that it was the EAR driving that vehicle and he has, once again, escaped identification by the intervention of fate.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIohO5iDPr0

Misidentified Driver of Oldsmobile, by Archangel76

... I keep saying that he was dead 6 months prior to the Oct. 17, 1976 incident but it is actually 8 months. In the police report, this is the person identified as driving the Oldsmobile Coupe, license #TOR 505 on 10/17/76. So much for police reports and blind adherence to what was written down. It wouldn't have taken much work to determine this information back in 1976. And the case may have been solved in Oct. of 1976. The information that we've developed so far says that the Oldsmobile was sold shortly after Manier's death. In the police report, the vehicle still had the damage from the accident which occurred during the failed bank robbery.

If anyone knows of a way to determine the VIN number of this vehicle, you could very well provide the break that this case so desperately needs.

From: AETV Threads, Third Set

[Any of N]

Returning to the issue Xiulan raised in an old post I quoted above.

One much-discussed line of evidence suggests that the EAR-ONS spent gobs of time stalking and reconnoitering. Another is that he had access to multiple old vehicles which could not be traced back to him. As the strategies for making multiple cars untraceable involve time and effort, this raises a key issue. There's only so many hours in day. A guy has to eat and sleep, maybe even feign something of a personal life. How did he possibly manage it all?

One way out of this perplexity is to envision a clever, intelligent offender. Somebody who's very efficient in his activities. Somebody of above-average intelligence. (Doesn't have to be genius level or anything like that.) Somebody obsessive in his interests and who develops encyclopedic levels of knowledge on topics on which he speaks fluently. Somebody who goes to extremes in pursuing his hobbies. Not every hobby, but those that engage him the most.

In short, a big nerd. Not a Revenge of the Nerds nerd but rather a Tremors 2 Burt Gummer nerd. Yes, my dear forum compatriots, he was more than a bit like us.

Sorry if this hits too close to home for some... lol. Just having a little fun with this topic, and I'm not trying to allude to Autism Spectrum Disorder. But seriously, consider these known EAR-ONS behaviors and tell me if they don't sound nerdy.

• Ligatures tied with fancy knots.

• That Rube Goldberg alarm system he made with clothesline cord strung between doors. (Attack 6.)

• His fancy mask collection. Including one of the type worn by welders and at least one that looked homemade.

• Waffle Stompers? Puh-lease.

• "I'll be gone in the dark" and other stilted dialog.

• That time he filled two mukluks with coins and carried them out of the house.

• I dare you to try to look at this composite without screaming, neeeerrrd!

So maybe we should be looking for a nerd. Assuming that he really was a nerd, here are some of his possible characteristics. They've all come up before in discussion, BTW.

• Voracious reader. Fiction and non-fiction. Crime, soldiering, cars, electronics, firearms, coins. Books, magazines, comic books, newspapers.

• Collector. Coins, stamps, comic books, beer cans, guns, knives.

• Shortwave radio enthusiast. Possibly had a police scanner. Maybe ham radio. Much more likely: CB radio! In the age before home computers, nerds gravitated to those. Might have even assembled his own unit from a Heath Kit.

• Outdoorsy. Scouting, hunting, nature sighting.

• Mechanically inclined. Could easily inspect an old cars for proper operation and perform repairs.

And probably a lot more, but that's a start.