Results From "the best lead in 40 years", by drdoogie

[morf13]

Mar 3, 2017 4:56:39 GMT Any of N said:

Mar 3, 2017 3:38:45 GMT morf13 said:

The only way this case will be solved is via the DNA checks,it's a good thing they are doing so many. Hopefully,sooner or later, somebody's DNA is going to be run and come back as a familiar DNA hit, and then they will track down every family member that POI has until they find EAR. And don't forget, there are a ton of POI's being turned in not deemed worthy of DNA tests. Those being DNA tested have to pass some litmus test to make it to the DNA check.

I can see an exception however. Let's say EAR was born in 1956,and is the only child. His Parents wouldn't be turned in as POI's so their DNA will never be run. He has no siblings to be POI's,so no DNA from them. If he has kids of his own, they would be too young to be POI's so their DNA wouldn't be run. In this situation, it would have to come down to a cousin or somebody like that getting tested to link all the way back to EAR. And does a familial DNA hit link to a Cousin? How distant? I would think it did,since people are being linked on Ancestry.com to each other via DNA,and they are distant relatives.

What's to stop one cop from entering a sample of EAR's DNA into ancestry.com's DNA database,and claiming it as their own DNA? If they got links to other people, they would know what family they are looking for. Obviously they can't do this because of the laws and such forbidding that,but plain and simply, the laws suck. That brings me back to a point I made in another thread, if you commit a crime in our society, you forfeit your right as a normal citizen and both your DNA & prints go into a national database. This country is more hung up on people's privacy and rights then catching criminals and getting them off the streets. It should be a national law,not on a state to state level, then there would be no red tape. I can't help but think, if this serial killer had operated in another state besides liberal CA, then things might get done differently

I'm arguing on another thread that a familial search probably was done on either Ancestry.com or 23andMe. As you are conjecturing, it perhaps came up empty because our guy doesn't have a lot of relatives. I surmise that from Shelby's story about getting no hits when he expected about 400. Maybe I'm wrong on that count, but it seems likely that some LE agency ran familial searches on both databases with EAR-ONS DNA. 

Regarding the law, we already have offender databases, so what else do you want? Crime has decreased steadily since the early '90's (minus a small recent homicide uptick in a few cities) without those added invasions of privacy. Many people across the political spectrum disagree with you.

A familial search was not done on Ancestry or 23andme in regards to the EAR/ONS investigation

[morf13]

Mar 3, 2017 7:00:23 GMT Drifter said:

cloudofwitnesses wrote:

... So two things went wrong: bringing her up on the board; and relying on her account to establish POI's. This is unacceptable, and a reminder of what went wrong back in the 1970s.

No.

Bringing her up on the board was not the problem.

The problem was with Michelle McNamara and Richard Shelby who, like some of the original investigators, were unwilling to accept that the EAR/ONS might not be just another generic, low-life criminal.

Posters will continue to be disappointed so long as they follow false theories, most of which are perpetuated either by current LE or by posters' own stereotyped images of serial killers.

Drifter

I had the pleasure of dealing with Michelle on and off for years,so I know her somewhat well. Mr Shelby, I've never had the pleasure of meeting or corresponding with and don't know him at all. From what I can gather, and this is second hand info from a source I trust, her and Shelby had a falling out in regards to this suspect, and how to go about gathering info,if it was reliable,and if there were conclusions being jumped to hastily. From what I gather, Michelle was no longer wanting to go down whatever road this was going down,thus the falling out. It is what it is, it's done and this particular POI is eliminated,so I applaud all involved for the efforts.

Part of the reason I see for the big letdown is the dubbing of a POI as 'the best lead in 40 years'. Seems to me,you are pinning lots of hopes on a POI like this and asking for a big letdown if he is ruled out 

[ellebee]

Mar 3, 2017 3:57:11 GMT Any of N said:

Mar 2, 2017 18:43:04 GMT drdoogie said:

It was the strongest POI developed from the "best lead in 40 years".  I still believe the lead is valid (the 1973 corvette attack), but we focused on the wrong POI.  There are others who have dna testing in the works, but I must admit that this POI was our best shot (imho).

This brings up the question I've been hesitating to ask. If Green Corvette Guy was not actually our guy, how would you be able to establish that fact?  Lack of a DNA hit only eliminates the POI as the EAR-ONS, not as the perpetrator of the '73 attack.

Dr. D, I hope you're right and that you're on the right track. But I have this scenario running through my mind where you keep chasing a dead end. For years and years on end.  We'd all hate to see that.

Yep, this was my fear all along.  The victim has no closure.  A terrible crime was committed, but we are no closer to helping this victim yet we have dragged her through this EAR/ONS mess. I realize that the SOL on the '73 assault has run out but it would have been helpful to the victim to have been able to see him brought to justice for the ONS murders. Despite everyone's hopes, he apparently did not commit those murders.  

I'll also go out on a limb here and speculate that it's still possible the EAR and ONS are not the same person.  Perhaps we had the right person for the '73 crime, and he was EAR, but he was not ONS.  My understanding is that there's no DNA from any of the Sacto crimes.  What's the possibility that the CC crimes were perpetrated by a copycat?  I know, far-fetched and all of that, but obviously conventional thinking isn't getting us anywhere with this case.  So frustrating! 

[winters]

Mar 3, 2017 1:40:13 GMT Drifter said:

Mar 2, 2017 18:30:49 GMT winters said:

How terribly disappointing. Thank you so much for keeping us in the loop. It sucks to have our hopes dashed but each elimination brings us one step closer...

winters ... it's hard for me to think you really believe that.  Yes they can continue to DNA check person after person after person ... for the next thousand years.

As morf13 says above: "There are other POI fish in the sea".  The problem is that there will always be suspect fish in this suspect sea.

The point, however, is not to keep fishing DNA samples, but rather to make an arrest.

I do not wish to interject any further comments as I know this outcome is a disappointment.  I too would have preferred a DNA match.

Drifter

I can see how that might come off as thinking this was a solid step, or more optimistic or even more of a platitude than I meant it to be. This elimination doesn't move the investigation forward in any significant way. But I do feel that it's a step forward in the sense that anyone who was hanging on to hope for this lead can now let it go and move on to the next thing, as hard as that is to do sometimes.

The lead was promising in the sense that we had an offender who committed sex crimes and could be tied to the area and tied to the rough time period, and roughly matched the description. There are a finite amount of those, and while brute forcing our way through those is looking for a needle in a very large haystack, that's pretty much the only wheel on this case that is spinning, to my knowledge. The elimination of the more public ones allows us to focus on other areas, leads, and theories. Anytime we find out that the investigation is barking up the wrong tree, that's useful information, as long as we're able to accept the result.

[winters]

Mar 3, 2017 4:13:48 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Well apparently the victim's word is majorly unreliable, even though she spent 6 hours in a vette with an unmasked rapist.

I'm appalled by a couple of the comments here and this one really stood out. Something terrifying and traumatic happened to this woman and now she's getting blamed for her attacker not being EAR?

Calling the victim unreliable and hurling negativity her way is absolutely not okay, especially when your own logic is completely faulty (6 hours in a vette with an "unmasked rapist" does NOT equal six hours in a vette with EAR). This witness went to a lot of trouble to identify her attacker, NOT to identify the East Area Rapist. And she very well probably DID identify her attacker, which makes her unreliable... how???

She did the courageous and responsible thing and sent in a tip about a terrible thing that happened to her FORTY-THREE years ago and cooperated fully in helping flesh out this lead. If she looked at a contemporary line-up that police put together for her and identified someone who resembled her attacker who is now in his SIXTIES instead of his TWENTIES then I'm sure she did the absolute best that she could, and in all other aspects of working on this I'm sure everyone involved did the best that they could with this lead. The victim never once came here and claimed that she had found the EAR or anything like that, and no one working to connect this to the EAR ever presented this lead as a sure thing, so I'm not sure how ANYONE's reliability can be called into question.

[Brad]

Mar 3, 2017 16:43:12 GMT winters said:

Mar 3, 2017 4:13:48 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Well apparently the victim's word is majorly unreliable, even though she spent 6 hours in a vette with an unmasked rapist.

I'm appalled by a couple of the comments here and this one really stood out. Something terrifying and traumatic happened to this woman and now she's getting blamed for her attacker not being EAR?

Calling the victim unreliable and hurling negativity her way is absolutely not okay, especially when your own logic is completely faulty (6 hours in a vette with an "unmasked rapist" does NOT equal six hours in a vette with EAR). This witness went to a lot of trouble to identify her attacker, NOT to identify the East Area Rapist. And she very well probably DID identify her attacker, which makes her unreliable... how???

She did the courageous and responsible thing and sent in a tip about a terrible thing that happened to her FORTY-THREE years ago and cooperated fully in helping flesh out this lead. If she looked at a contemporary line-up that police put together for her and identified someone who resembled her attacker who is now in his SIXTIES instead of his TWENTIES then I'm sure she did the absolute best that she could, and in all other aspects of working on this I'm sure everyone involved did the best that they could with this lead. The victim never once came here and claimed that she had found the EAR or anything like that, and no one working to connect this to the EAR ever presented this lead as a sure thing, so I'm not sure how ANYONE's reliability can be called into question.

I am begging people... please read what you have written before you hit send. If you cannot put the time into doing this to be sure you are not typing something that is offensive or insulting to a crime victim, then you aren't ready to discuss crime on a message board.

The crimes discussed here have real victims, and real families of the victims who are not here any longer. In many instances, they are quite interested in this case and follow and read on the Internet just like we do. They deserve better than what has been written. Plus it is unfair, as Winters so ably pointed out.

[NaptimeNancy]

drdoogie As Leonidis mentioned, do you think it is possible that this guy could have really been Amy's abductor but just not EARONS? I'm not trying to discredit any of your work, Im just genuinely curious and care about Amy getting justice as well if we're dealing with two different rapists. Is there SOL on abduction? Thanks for sharing all of this with us and keeping us updated.

[winters]

Mar 3, 2017 17:39:50 GMT NaptimeNancy said:

drdoogie As Leonidis mentioned, do you think it is possible that this guy could have really been Amy's abductor but just not EARONS? I'm not trying to discredit any of your work, Im just genuinely curious and care about Amy getting justice as well if we're dealing with two different rapists. Is there SOL on abduction? Thanks for sharing all of this with us and keeping us updated.

Great questions, Mrs. B. My impression from following the posts about this lead for awhile is that they suspected this person's brother of being Amy's abductor, and they were hoping that he was the EAR. They've proven that he wasn't the EARONS, but I'm assuming that because they tested him that they're reasonably sure that he IS Amy's abductor. 

I believe SOL on abduction is California is 6 years.

[winters]

Mar 3, 2017 17:41:47 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

I am appalled by your knee jerk reaction to my post. I am actually defending the victim, who is being exploited by a retired detective who is desperate to solve this case. He has  major media knocking on his door begging to sell his story, and this just adds more drama to it. My POI got pulled into this, and he too was called the best suspect in 40 years--but I can't say any more. Now the details of the victim's account are written off by the one who interviewed her, and the only reliable sources are the 3 witnesses. Your comment that "no one working to connect this to the EAR ever presented this lead as a sure thing" is flat out false. PM me if you want to know more. 

I had wondered if you were being facetious, but the followup post:

Mar 3, 2017 6:12:13 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

The problem is, I did read the posts. "They" believe this is proto ear based on the victim's inconsistent testimony. How do you build a 43 year old case, and find additional witnesses, when your primary witness is not credible?

led me to believe that you yourself regarded the witness as not credible. Based on a couple PMs I received before I logged on I know I wasn't the only one who misunderstood. But truly, if I missed the nuance of your post and I was being oversensitive and reactionary then I sincerely apologize.

[NaptimeNancy]

Mar 3, 2017 17:44:14 GMT winters said:

Mar 3, 2017 17:39:50 GMT NaptimeNancy said:

drdoogie As Leonidis mentioned, do you think it is possible that this guy could have really been Amy's abductor but just not EARONS? I'm not trying to discredit any of your work, Im just genuinely curious and care about Amy getting justice as well if we're dealing with two different rapists. Is there SOL on abduction? Thanks for sharing all of this with us and keeping us updated.

Great questions, Mrs. B. My impression from following the posts about this lead for awhile is that they suspected this person's brother of being Amy's abductor, and they were hoping that he was the EAR. They've proven that he wasn't the EARONS, but I'm assuming that because they tested him that they're reasonably sure that he IS Amy's abductor. 

I believe SOL on abduction is California is 6 years.

Thank you for the clarification! Cannot imagine being able to finally track down an attacker of crimes fitting into the SOL category and not being able to press charges. I get why they're in place for more rare circumstances but I feel like this law unfortunately protects too many monsters.

[winters]

Mar 3, 2017 17:54:09 GMT NaptimeNancy said:

Mar 3, 2017 17:44:14 GMT winters said:

Great questions, Mrs. B. My impression from following the posts about this lead for awhile is that they suspected this person's brother of being Amy's abductor, and they were hoping that he was the EAR. They've proven that he wasn't the EARONS, but I'm assuming that because they tested him that they're reasonably sure that he IS Amy's abductor. 

I believe SOL on abduction is California is 6 years.

Thank you for the clarification! Cannot imagine being able to finally track down an attacker of crimes fitting into the SOL category and not being able to press charges. I get why they're in place for more rare circumstances but I feel like this law unfortunately protects too many monsters.

One thing that I'm not clear on is why this wasn't resolved back when it happened. This was a horrendous crime and she easily could've been killed. Both Shelby and Dr. Doogie have shared the explanations that they've come across but it seems like if we can identify her attacker 44 years later, we sure as heck could've done it in 1973. But it was a different world then I suppose. I've had heated debates with my lawyer friend about the SOL. His argument is essentially that eliminating the SOL is "cruel". Not nearly as cruel as what this girl went through.

[NaptimeNancy]

Mar 3, 2017 17:59:32 GMT winters said:

Mar 3, 2017 17:54:09 GMT NaptimeNancy said:

Thank you for the clarification! Cannot imagine being able to finally track down an attacker of crimes fitting into the SOL category and not being able to press charges. I get why they're in place for more rare circumstances but I feel like this law unfortunately protects too many monsters.

One thing that I'm not clear on is why this wasn't resolved back when it happened. This was a horrendous crime and she easily could've been killed. Both Shelby and Dr. Doogie have shared the explanations that they've come across but it seems like if we can identify her attacker 44 years later, we sure as heck could've done it in 1973. But it was a different world then I suppose. I've had heated debates with my lawyer friend about the SOL. His argument is essentially that eliminating the SOL is "cruel". Not nearly as cruel as what this girl went through.

I cant get on board with the "cruel" explanation either. It should be at least 15-20 if at all given that it takes so many victims such a long time to seek help and stop blaming themselves. And you're absolutely right, this ball got dropped years ago and the old system let Amy down.

[travismcgee]

If there is enough evidence that this POI indeed is Amy's abductor and attacker perhaps she can sue him in civil court. She may not want the publicity and grueling experience but it would out this SOB publicly.

[submarine68]

Mar 3, 2017 4:18:51 GMT morf13 said:

Mar 3, 2017 4:13:48 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Well apparently the victim's word is majorly unreliable, even though she spent 6 hours in a vette with an unmasked rapist. So I don't know how you can begin to rely on other witnesses. For me, this incident has raised more questions than it has solved. I'm not sure why it was ever posted on the board.

My question is, how did green vette guy become the best lead in 40 years? The MO didn't match EAR's known MO. The details were sketchy on the part of the witness,etc. Not trying to second guess anybody or their efforts, but I have personally come across the names of multiple men in Sacramento that became rapists or had sex assaults. What is any different about them vs Green vette guy? 

Appraisal of the this lead in light of its outcome is advantageous for our causes certainly. Regardless, I am certainly bummed but have benefited from the fact that I did my best to keep my expectations of it tempered. I am no expert on this case by a long shot, merely an observer via this board. But, it's possible (as it always was) that the green corvette attack had NOTHING to do with EAR. Also, I could see this lead becoming the "best in 40 years" when you really don't have much of anything else! I mean c'mon, unless LE has something juicy they have kept close to the vest as I see it there aren't juicy leads -- just events shrouded in more mystery that lead to to foggy, dark-lit "corridors." The Maggiore murders, the Danville papers, the phone calls on and on and on...captivating pieces and events but nothing remotely solid at all about them. Heck, though it's not definitive by any means, and this could be woefully inaccurate, imagine if we still had the lone DNA sample from one of the Sac attacks (I do believe there was one) and it turned out that there was not a connection to the attacks in C.C.C. Again very unlikely, but wow would that be an about-face. Many (not all) LE back in those days made some horrifically poor choices during the time of EAR, and in fact there behavior really to some degree reinforced EAR's perception of them (sadly). I'm thankful this was explored, hoping that perhaps somewhere in the group of remaining POIs there is a miracle of some sort. Otherwise, my focus rests on the efforts of folks like Deb and Shelly to try and keep spreading the word on this case. More and more It seems to be narrowing to someone speaking out that knows something -- or learning and linking what they know to the case and speaking about it.

oh, and Claudius, personally, to me you seem to be presenting yourself as someone who is tied to this case and relevant to it in ways you really aren't -- just my OPINION. I could be wrong.

[morf13]

I can't speak for anybody else, but I hope I didn't come across as attacking the victim. From what I understand, the victim provided sketchy details as to precise details of who,what,where,etc,and who can blame her, it's been 40+ years. I am trying to grasp whether this Victim went to police back when it happened,and if so, what was done at that time? The details would have been fresher, and likely attacker easier to ID during that time period as opposed to 40+ years later. Whomever attacked her in the Corvette, EAR or not,deserved to go to jail and I am sorry that didn't happen