Frequency Of Attacks: EAR to ONS

[zforce]

Over the past couple weeks I've really been thinking about the huge drop off in attack frequency from NorCal to SoCal and what that might say about the offender.

Here is a guy who averages somewhere around 15 attacks a year up north, but while he elevates himself to murder down south, he only strikes on 7 occasions from 1979-1986....with a five year gap from 1981-1986. Even if you exclude Janelle and where he could have been for five years from the data, he's still down to an average of 2 attacks per year from 1979-1981. So why the massive drop off???

I know some people have theorized that work could have played a major factor, but it didnt seem to effect him in Sac, so I can't see why it would slow him down anywhere else especially to such a low attack frequency.

The fact that he's now killing his victims probably says a lot. Does killing his victims now quench his appetite for other crime? Or is it the fear he puts into his victims, coupled with the act of killing, enough to keep him at bay for months at a time?

The SoCal attack frequency dropoff along with the escalation to murder has also made me question the possibility that he may have known the murder victims to some degree. Interestingly, there are murder for hire angles in both the Smith and Cruz murders. Before DNA, the Harrington's always believed someone from Patty's past had committed the crime.

Maybe the most plausible explanation is that he did settle into some sort of family life. He does start to look a lot more like Dennis Rader on the SoCal end in terms of attack frequency, and he at least made some attempt to keep LE from linking his crimes, particularly in the Witthuhn case. To me that's indicative of a guy who now has more to lose than he did before.

It also didnt escape me that in the CCF episode Pool expressed his belief that ONS practiced rough sex with a consensual partner. I wouldn't say that exactly was LE tipping their hand, but it does concede their belief that he was capable of having a normal relationship.

Anyway, I think there's a lot more to cover in this conversation but I just wanted to get the ball rolling because I believe the attack frequency is telling us something major about him, and we just may be able to unearth a more concrete composite of our suspect.

[warren]

I lean to a couple of marriages in the mix. One very short and maybe another longer one. With kids, possibly. I also think he had a compliant, but not necessarily fully willing sex partner. I would think that that person might have written the "Afraid" letter, but one article alluded to that person being a "he", and I don't think ONS was a practicing gay.

[jigisup]

I agree with you both: Marriage and family life entered the picture, as well as a regular 8-5 job, which, combined with family life, really cut into his available time for recon. He still had his memories and trophies to scratch the fantasy itch.

Of course, we do not know the full extent of his crimes down south. There could also be a number of crimes unconnected to him at this point.

[mb]

Didn't the Harrington family believe the perpetrator was someone from Patty's past because in their view it couldn't possibly be from somebody in THEIR son's past? I read where they didn't know Patty very well and that their thought that it was related to her was that they couldn't link it to Keith or a stranger.

[zforce]

Nov 15, 2013 17:48:34 GMT mb said:

Didn't the Harrington family believe the perpetrator was someone from Patty's past because in their view it couldn't possibly be from somebody in THEIR son's past? I read where they didn't know Patty very well and that their thought that it was related to her was that they couldn't link it to Keith or a stranger.

Yeah we only did hear his family's side of the story fwiw.

Another interesting thing is how in Irvine he switches it up to women who are alone. In the Witthuhn case he goes to great lengths to make the scene look like a burglary, and IMO I think he had her get into a sleeping bag to further detract from the rape angle.

So it it does beg the question of why he would be so concerned with LE linking his Orange County activities, where in Goleta he makes no effort to hide his involvement? Did he have more to lose in OC?

[Deleted]

First, the frequency of the attacks. If this guy had been murdering people at the frequency he raped in NorCal the National Guard would have been patrolling the streets. Even though EAR/ONS/GSK/ABCDEFG made a serious effort to avoid giving law enforcement something to connect the SoCal murders even the most loyal Chamber of Commerce booster type would have had to admit there was a serial killer working SoCal.

Second, I yield to no one in my sympathy for the Harringtons and my gratitude for their contribution to California in working so hard to get the DNA rules changed. But I also understand that being the smart and substantial people they were it had to be very difficult to internalize the knowledge that your son and daughter in law had been murdered by someone simply because the killer saw her somewhere and she gave him a buzz. And that being smart people they knew that if the crime was totally random many of the tools law enforcement uses to catch the criminals were useless. Had to be really hard when nothing turned up after a month of so and it became obvious that the case had gone cold.

[Greg]

Nov 15, 2013 23:20:16 GMT f1guyus said:

First, the frequency of the attacks. If this guy had been murdering people at the frequency he raped in NorCal the National Guard would have been patrolling the streets. Even though EAR/ONS/GSK/ABCDEFG made a serious effort to avoid giving law enforcement something to connect the SoCal murders even the most loyal Chamber of Commerce booster type would have had to admit there was a serial killer working SoCal.

Second, I yield to no one in my sympathy for the Harringtons and my gratitude for their contribution to California in working so hard to get the DNA rules changed. But I also understand that being the smart and substantial people they were it had to be very difficult to internalize the knowledge that your son and daughter in law had been murdered by someone simply because the killer saw her somewhere and she gave him a buzz. And that being smart people they knew that if the crime was totally random many of the tools law enforcement uses to catch the criminals were useless. Had to be really hard when nothing turned up after a month of so and it became obvious that the case had gone cold.

Again an agreement. He got away with his rapes concentrated in a few areas due to a variety of factors. He was clever enough to spread his murders apart in terms of time and locations even though he returned to areas he had killed in before. Ventura being the exception I believe. As f1guyus said, if his murder rate was as high as his rape rate and as focused on one area, he would have been shutdown a lot quicker. He would have been reckless and sloppy to go down that route. Had his rate been higher his MO would have stood out like a sore thumb.

This might be an assumption, but the Smith case generated a lot of attention in Ventura, and even led to a wrongful arrest. I think he may have realised that striking in Ventura again would be a huge mistake as given the attention another killing may have brought to him.

[gobrewers]

I thought about this while re-reading some info and watching some shorts on youtube last night, and most of today. I have to assume the gratification for the murder and the possibilities of reliving it, along with the serious amount of coverage/fear in the area helped him take more time in between murders. I think the main question for me is the final gap, as i (along with many others) have an impossible time believing he took time off, outside of a tour (not long enough) and imprisonment (which would make sense if he re-offended shortly after release, as so many rapists/whatever he is do)

I hope he had a serious injury, or came down with some cancer after the last murder, but as stated before, i sincerely have a hard time believing it. I know there have been serial killers who have taken time off, which is one of the main reasons this is such an interesting case to continue to read/study.

[findgsk]

Great read! I've also wondered about the frequency of GSK's crimes.


Concerning SoCal, one theory I've had is that when the media, most likely through print, started informing the public about DNA and its utility to Law Enforcement GSK learned about this information within a year of it being released to the public. I then assume the worst such that GSK then found another way to commit his crimes by hiding his victims bodies. He definitely shows the ability to adapt, and does so many things to misdirect that very little genuine clues are left. I try to find GSK based on his actions so that I can create a profile based on the things he's done so as to not be thrown off track by his terror charade, his doctoring off the crime scene to make it look like a idiotic/desperate robbery, his constant lies to victims to get them tied up, his use of bicycles so as to not reveal his true vehicle of transportation etc

I don't see GSK as an emotionally driven person who does wild actions based on simple impulses. GSK prepares in a sense that if he chooses a victim he does so in a manner such that they are far removed from him. Concerning his personality and who he was. I think at a young age he was a bully came from a wealthy family and was educated well. He never stopped being a bully started stealing breaking into homes etc and it continued to escalate and never stopped. GSK may have been caught at a young age breaking into a neighborhood girls home. After that one early error possibly counciling but not real repercussions because of his families social status gsk decides these crimes will become something he does on a more proffesional level. He frequents the outdoors and owns bicycles.

I think he was in college , a phd or masters program, apprentice for specialized construction, had a job with the Forrest service , while committing his NorCal crimes. Then he moved down South. GSK is focused on not getting caught

[Greg]

Might be drifting slightly .....a lot of these individuals are seeking to "create" their perfect crime, i.e. everything in the fantasy comes together at that moment and "works" for them. It generally happens once, and then the circumstances are failed to be re-created again exactly. In the case of ONS, I think the Smith murders were his zenith. That appears to be the one situation where everything went "right". He was never able to repeat that.

As above murder to these individuals whilst being the ultimate objective takes a lot out of them. They are smart enough to "cool off" and have enough to vicariously live through until the urge strikes them again or they believe they have found a victim to make the fantasy real again.

[Drifter]

Good topic for discussion, zforce, and some interesting, well thought out responses.

I just can't buy the marriage and family life bit, but I do think there was some specific reason for the drop-off in frequency. My best guess would be that he had the discipline to refrain from more frequent attacks because he knew the legal consequences of murder vis-a-vis rape. Which is also why he would dart around geographically, seemingly at random, from one county to another.

This guy seemed unusually aware of police protocol. He was also adaptable to rapidly changing situations as one would expect for someone in combat.

[lepke]

In a sense EAR/ONS was in combat, and whether he was a Vietnam veteran or not, especially a skilled one that went on missions behind enemy lines, there are certain similarities between what EAR/ONS was doing, and what an expert in guerrilla warfare would do.

Instead of the jungles of Vietnam, his battleground was the suburbs of California; instead of looking out for the Viet Cong, he was looking out for the members of the society he was surrounded by; just like a special forces soldier might, his objective was to observe a target without being noticed, attack the target, and evade capture after the attack.

[zforce]

Nov 16, 2013 7:00:56 GMT Drifter said:

Good topic for discussion, zforce, and some interesting, well thought out responses.

I just can't buy the marriage and family life bit, but I do think there was some specific reason for the drop-off in frequency. My best guess would be that he had the discipline to refrain from more frequent attacks because he knew the legal consequences of murder vis-a-vis rape. Which is also why he would dart around geographically, seemingly at random, from one county to another.

This guy seemed unusually aware of police protocol. He was also adaptable to rapidly changing situations as one would expect for someone in combat.

My thinking is this...if some time in 1981 he gets involved in his first real consensual relationship, or if that's when things started to progress in the relationship....then I could see him going on hiatus for five years with the Cruz case being a sort of relapse. He was bright enough to know the difference between right and wrong and I believe it to be possible said relapse could have made him extremely disappointed in himself to the point of not re-offending....however with DNA being just around the corner it's possible that by the time he was ready to offend again he was taking precautions such as Rader did, but in his case realized he would have to drastically change his MO. He had already attempted to do this with Witthuhn in 1981, so I wouldn't find that to be too far out of the realm of possibilities.

I still feel the circumstances of Janelle's life make her murder more unlikely as a random serial killing, especially after his own 5 year hiatus, thus he would have to be close enough to know her situation.

[sammyt]

Alternatively it's possible he was in prison for a good spell between 1981-86.

I think it was the 'Grim Sleeper' case where a long hiatus was later explained by a prison spell.

If not prison, then I agree that getting married would be a good 'explanation' - Ridgway slowed right down once he got married.

[tongue]

Nov 16, 2013 17:31:51 GMT zforce said:

Nov 16, 2013 7:00:56 GMT Drifter said:

Good topic for discussion, zforce, and some interesting, well thought out responses.

I just can't buy the marriage and family life bit, but I do think there was some specific reason for the drop-off in frequency. My best guess would be that he had the discipline to refrain from more frequent attacks because he knew the legal consequences of murder vis-a-vis rape. Which is also why he would dart around geographically, seemingly at random, from one county to another.

This guy seemed unusually aware of police protocol. He was also adaptable to rapidly changing situations as one would expect for someone in combat.

 
My thinking is this...if some time in 1981 he gets involved in his first real consensual relationship, or if that's when things started to progress in the relationship....then I could see him going on hiatus for five years with the Cruz case being a sort of relapse. He was bright enough to know the difference between right and wrong and I believe it to be possible said relapse could have made him extremely disappointed in himself to the point of not re-offending....however with DNA being just around the corner it's possible that by the time he was ready to offend again he was taking precautions such as Rader did, but in his case realized he would have to drastically change his MO. He had already attempted to do this with Witthuhn in 1981, so I wouldn't find that to be too far out of the realm of possibilities.

I still feel the circumstances of Janelle's life make her murder more unlikely as a random serial killing, especially after his own 5 year hiatus, thus he would have to be close enough to know her situation.

  you really think a man like ONS could become involved in a consensual relationship with a woman??after committing so many rapes/murders, i find it unlikely he would find a woman and settle down..his threshold in regards to sex would have to be off the scale...in fact, i dont think he could have normal sex..if the woman was completely submissive and naive it might work though..i just dont see ONS being the type of guy to even want to be in a relationship..