1973 Dawes Burglary in Rancho Cordova

[nick]

Jan 23, 2018 9:30:14 GMT sammyt said:

Jan 23, 2018 2:34:17 GMT nick said:

I don't know what the odds are of a single teenage girl being a victim of that strange burglary and then becoming a victim of EAR. How far ahead was EAR was prowling and burglarizing? Was there a victim that was attacked but not one of the first two or three that he had a close tie with? The victim in this attack may have had a much greater importance that LE believes since she was targeted so many years before. Could he have waited to attack her until after the series had started to draw the attention away from himself?

This victim was part of the early cluster of attacks within close proximity of each other (#1, #3, #6, #8).

If EAR was able to wait so patiently for over three years before attacking this victim, then why would he draw attention to a possible connection to her or the area, by leaving earlier RC attack scenes without his pants on?

Leaving crime scenes naked from the waist down screams of an offender leaving very close by.  Profiling 101 would also tell us that the rapist lived in a comfort zone close to his first attack scene.

We know EAR was a patient and calculating offender, but would he have had such patience and foreplanning as a burgeoning sexual terrorist at the start of his crime spree?

And if victim #6 was his main target all along then were the pant free exits in nearby attacks double bluffs?

It doesn't really make sense for EAR to be 'telling' LE that he lived nearby, if he has been harbouring a long term plan to attack his main target in the very same area.

Maybe like some other serial offenders (BTK made sure he had no links to victims until he decided to kill his neighbor a few doors down) EAR was just a weird mixture of extreme patience and planning, with the occasional impulsive and high risk attack thrown into the mix.

 

As we know comfort zones are a big reason serial offenders commit in certain places but also when you combine comfort with an obsessive-compulsive overdriven sexual fantasy involving particular victims he has been watching you get this type of pattern. The is evidence suggesting he had prowled these victims and he knew what he wanted and he was favoring a particular type of female. I also believe he may not have had an actual plan of being a serial offender I think he had some victims he wanted to engage in his fantasy and they lived near him in an area he knew quite well. He most likely spent many many hours walking and biking that particular area of Rancho and knew it quite well I did myself as a kid. As a kid, you can go as the crow flies roads are not the only way to get around. It becomes second nature and you feel safe in your own neighborhood so he grew up moving through those places and grew into an adult serial rapist. He was evidence aware somewhat because he wore gloves probably learned that before 1973 every kid knows that from TV and he didn't think they would catch him because he is the guy no one supects and we still don't.

[intuitiva]

Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT alphacentauri said:

Jan 22, 2018 22:55:16 GMT @simonf74 said:

The EAR-ONS and GSK are the same though aren't they,all Michelle Mcnamara did was study EAR-ONS' crimes but gave him a new moniker.Still undecided about VR.

Michelle Mcnamara was an amateur and just hoped to get "famous" by writing about EAR/ONS and rebranding him GSK.  I feel bad that she was never able to escape her drug addictions, and was unfortunately married to your typical Hollywood narcissist-but she was also a huge narcissist as well.

There were multiple rapists/sexual assaulter types in central CA in the early and mid 1970s, but only one of them is EAR/ONS.

C'mon man, that's a little much don't you think?

[Deleted]

Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT alphacentauri said:

Jan 22, 2018 22:55:16 GMT @simonf74 said:

The EAR-ONS and GSK are the same though aren't they,all Michelle Mcnamara did was study EAR-ONS' crimes but gave him a new moniker.Still undecided about VR.

Michelle Mcnamara was an amateur and just hoped to get "famous" by writing about EAR/ONS and rebranding him GSK.  I feel bad that she was never able to escape her drug addictions, and was unfortunately married to your typical Hollywood narcissist-but she was also a huge narcissist as well.

There were multiple rapists/sexual assaulter types in central CA in the early and mid 1970s, but only one of them is EAR/ONS.

I have to be honest i do not know a lot about Michelle McNamara but i very much doubt it was to get famous,there are far easier ways to do it than take on a mammoth task like she did.I intend to buy her book it may reveal something,also as far as i am aware she died from complications due to her heart,i get the meds she was on as i used to work in a pharmacy but i feel that should be private.I do believe personally that EAR's crimes are the same as ONS' it may in some only down to MO but i feel confident if the Detectives do.I trust Larry Cromptons,Shelby's and Jim Bevins gut instincts as they saw it all on the ground and had to turn up to the scenes,or witness the full crime scene photos.Also the newer guys Larry Pool etc.I don't know anything about Oswald Patton but i do not think it helps to speak ill of them both.We are just all trying to put this together and get this solved for those who remain.

[V]

Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT alphacentauri said:

Jan 22, 2018 22:55:16 GMT @simonf74 said:

The EAR-ONS and GSK are the same though aren't they,all Michelle Mcnamara did was study EAR-ONS' crimes but gave him a new moniker.Still undecided about VR.

Michelle Mcnamara was an amateur and just hoped to get "famous" by writing about EAR/ONS and rebranding him GSK.  I feel bad that she was never able to escape her drug addictions, and was unfortunately married to your typical Hollywood narcissist-but she was also a huge narcissist as well.

There were multiple rapists/sexual assaulter types in central CA in the early and mid 1970s, but only one of them is EAR/ONS.

That's brutal. You don't know these people personally and it's unfair to judge them like this. 

[morf13]

Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT alphacentauri said:

Jan 22, 2018 22:55:16 GMT @simonf74 said:

The EAR-ONS and GSK are the same though aren't they,all Michelle Mcnamara did was study EAR-ONS' crimes but gave him a new moniker.Still undecided about VR.

[comments deleted, by Drifter]

There were multiple rapists/sexual assaulter types in central CA in the early and mid 1970s, but only one of them is EAR/ONS.

Stupid & ignorant statement   how you make these statements without even knowing her? 

I was lucky enough to talk, and email with her for several years, and from the vibe I got and what she told me, you're dead wrong about the 'being famous' part. Her death was caused by an underlying,un-diagnosed heart condition, that was negatively affected by legal prescription drugs she was taking. 

[silentscreams]

Jan 26, 2018 0:07:34 GMT alphacentauri said:

Jan 22, 2018 22:55:16 GMT @simonf74 said:

The EAR-ONS and GSK are the same though aren't they,all Michelle Mcnamara did was study EAR-ONS' crimes but gave him a new moniker.Still undecided about VR.

[comments deleted, by Drifter]

There were multiple rapists/sexual assaulter types in central CA in the early and mid 1970s, but only one of them is EAR/ONS.

Wow you are terrible! 

[nick]

Okay back on topic....

This burglary could be a huge thing and certainly, in my opinion, makes the 6th victim very important in terms of identification of EAR. If this was EAR in pre-sexual assault mode and then he located this same teenager assaulted her years later it may help explain more if we can understand the connection. Did he know she had moved and the location or did he discover her on his prowling and stalking for victims? The word stalking is important here was it a case of stalking did he have a traceable connection to this particular victim, unlike the others? The connection between EAR and #6 and any or all plausible connections needs to be explored. Let's talk about that what are possible connections? Living in the area together? Attended Cordova Senior High School together?

Another thing to explore is how did he locate her after her family moved? Did he know her well enough that he knew because they were acquaintances or friends? Did he locate her while out prowling? Is that even practical that he came upon her by chance?

I would like to see some ideas on both of these topics let's think about the possibilities.

[MJP]

Jan 27, 2018 3:43:34 GMT nick said:

Okay back on topic....

This burglary could be a huge thing and certainly, in my opinion, makes the 6th victim very important in terms of identification of EAR. If this was EAR in pre-sexual assault mode and then he located this same teenager assaulted her years later it may help explain more if we can understand the connection. Did he know she had moved and the location or did he discover her on his prowling and stalking for victims? The word stalking is important here was it a case of stalking did he have a traceable connection to this particular victim, unlike the others? The connection between EAR and #6 and any or all plausible connections needs to be explored. Let's talk about that what are possible connections? Living in the area together? Attended Cordova Senior High School together?

Another thing to explore is how did he locate her after her family moved? Did he know her well enough that he knew because they were acquaintances or friends? Did he locate her while out prowling? Is that even practical that he came upon her by chance?

I would like to see some ideas on both of these topics let's think about the possibilities.

I'm inclined to think that the most straightforward explanation is the most likely --- they both lived in the same small area of RC and both attended the same HS.  

Both those factors would allow for EAR to be aware of the victim without ever having a direct connection to her.

[nyc123]

Jan 27, 2018 3:43:34 GMT nick said:

Okay back on topic....

This burglary could be a huge thing and certainly, in my opinion, makes the 6th victim very important in terms of identification of EAR. If this was EAR in pre-sexual assault mode and then he located this same teenager assaulted her years later it may help explain more if we can understand the connection. Did he know she had moved and the location or did he discover her on his prowling and stalking for victims? The word stalking is important here was it a case of stalking did he have a traceable connection to this particular victim, unlike the others? The connection between EAR and #6 and any or all plausible connections needs to be explored. Let's talk about that what are possible connections? Living in the area together? Attended Cordova Senior High School together?

Another thing to explore is how did he locate her after her family moved? Did he know her well enough that he knew because they were acquaintances or friends? Did he locate her while out prowling? Is that even practical that he came upon her by chance?

I would like to see some ideas on both of these topics let's think about the possibilities.

I bet he went to Cordova HS with her. If she was 19 on 10/9/76, that means she graduated in either '75 or '76, and I'm guessing he would have been the same year or maybe the year ahead of her. He could have started stalking her when she was a freshman, maybe moved up to entering her home and burglarizing it when she was a sophomore (she was 16 at the time of the '73 burglary), then graduated from CHS (either with her or a year ahead of her) and after a year or so, elevated the stalking and burglarizing to rape. They may even have been acquaintances or hung out with some of the same people in high school, which would have made it easy for him to know that she and her family had moved to another house (I don't think they moved very far, did they?). He could have actually been in the house legitimately at some point (maybe partying, just hanging out--do we know if she had any siblings who might have had someone over at some point?) which would explain how he knew which bedrooms were which, although he probably could have gotten that info from the burglary, too. I would bet that she was a long-term target for him (like a lot of his targets), and that he knew a lot about her and her family, even if they didn't actually know him, or only knew him in passing...

[trabuco]

Jan 27, 2018 3:43:34 GMT nick said:

Okay back on topic....

This burglary could be a huge thing and certainly, in my opinion, makes the 6th victim very important in terms of identification of EAR. If this was EAR in pre-sexual assault mode and then he located this same teenager assaulted her years later it may help explain more if we can understand the connection. Did he know she had moved and the location or did he discover her on his prowling and stalking for victims? The word stalking is important here was it a case of stalking did he have a traceable connection to this particular victim, unlike the others? The connection between EAR and #6 and any or all plausible connections needs to be explored. Let's talk about that what are possible connections? Living in the area together? Attended Cordova Senior High School together?

Another thing to explore is how did he locate her after her family moved? Did he know her well enough that he knew because they were acquaintances or friends? Did he locate her while out prowling? Is that even practical that he came upon her by chance?

I would like to see some ideas on both of these topics let's think about the possibilities.

I try to think of ways he could have kept up his acquaintance with her whether she moved down the street or across town. One possibility is they attended the same church. Some things about people can and will change but other things will stay the same. 

[nick]

All good thoughts what other connections are possible?

[ihavesomeideas]

He could’ve had an obsession with her pre dating 1973 (I tend to believe he was much older as the “New San Ramon” sketch suggest). He could have been friends with a sybling of hers ( does anyone know if she had siblings???) or even her father. Or he may have done work such as repairs or a delivery to her new residence and rediscovered her, or he may have followed her home from the local library, grocery store etc. I agree that there seems to be a long withstanding connection here and that it’s improbable that he just randomly stumbled upon her and TWICE made her a victim. Seems like a further look into this one may actually turn up something. As Nick and many others have obviously pointed out.....he was unsuspected for some reason. I always pictured him as the 30-35 year old home body that lived with a relative and only went out to stalk.

[trabuco]

I'm thinking he saw her just days before he attacked her.

What comes to mind is what he told victim #2. "I think I'm in love with it." "I'm in love with your effing body."

As it is in most cases with these predators, it just comes down to crossing paths with them and they see the opportunity.

It could be something as simple as purchasing gas at the same gas station or shopping at the same grocery store as mentioned in ihavesomeideas post.

[whereishe]

Jan 27, 2018 6:17:28 GMT nick said:

All good thoughts what other connections are possible?

If she was 16 in 1973 and 19 in 1976, did she work while in high school? If so, where?

[utahraptor]

Jan 21, 2018 6:32:59 GMT nick said:

The 1973 burglary on Dawes Street where a suspect that I consider to be EAR (Pre-sexual assault) broken in and stole a pair of earrings and coins from a teenager who lived there. This same teenager who had moved from that house to another in Rancho Cordova becomes victim #6 is that a coincidence? I do not believe that for one minute. To me, it shows a possible foundation for prooving EAR was in Rancho in 1973 and that is without all the other reports I have read. As a stand-alone case, 1973 burglary helps to support more than not that EAR was in Rancho as early as 1973.

This is without adding the other reports I have seen from the Sheriff's Department in and around the same time period that could be categorized as EAR type of activity. I believe this shows compelling evidence EAR was in Rancho during the time frame VR was active.

As anyone who has read my posts, I hunt EAR, VR, and GSK as three separate offenders it is just my opinion I do it because I don't want to combine evidence from the three cases and overlook any items that may be important to an individual case. It's my choice until I see something that convinces me otherwise.

I don't believe this is a coincidence either.  It could be that EAR was a long term stalker of this particular person.  And if he is, and this is one of his earliest targets, this person may have some other connection to him.  Perhaps he knew her personally in some way.  Or maybe he just had some type of "crush" obsession with her.  I think this is very significant.