Possible Connection between 1973 Sac and the VR?

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 22:49:54 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 22:24:52 GMT redding2 said:

It is a myth because the evidence says so.  So is detective Clark wrong when he concludes that the 1973 offender and the EAR are most likely the same guy?  Also where did the EAR come from and where did the VR go?  And what do you have against podcasts?  It is just a modern way to convey information.  It is the content that matters.  They used actual police reports.  What specifically did they get wrong?  With 15 matching MO items between the 1973 guy and the VR it is not more accurate to say that they are different offenders.  That in fact is bizarre conclusion to come to at this point.  Have you even listened to the podcast? 

Detective Clark found evidence of voyeuristic robberies around the epicenter of the EAR attacks that had a witness description (sketch) that looked almost identical to the Ripon Court shooting, so that's much more convincing to me than connecting it to Visalia.  EAR probably developed his MO and his urge to commit rapes and murder in the Rancho Cordova area - whether he lived there or around that area (i.e. Carmichael) could be up for debate.  If you read up on serial killers/rapist, they begin where they feel the most comfortable - usually where they live/work, etc.  I have nothing against podcasts, but I said I had an issue with the 12.26.75 podcast because it suffers from a huge confirmation bias (the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses).  They could have been using police reports and other original source material, but if you begin your search with the idea that VR = EAR, then you will interpret that original source material to confirm your preexisting belief that EAR = VR.  It doesn't matter if they used police reports (or as you put it, "content"), if they are dead set on the idea that VR = EAR from the gate - which is what I'm saying here.  By the way, my opinion is coming from someone who has read original source material.  Again, you should re-read my post, as I've stated that the connection between similar offenders is what should be looked at here, not the similarities between EAR and VR.  Because, most serial offenders like these 2 share a lot of common behavior patterns, MO and development in their maladaptive sexual behavior.  I think that's what is confusing everyone - the lack of knowledge of similar offenders and their similar behavior patterns.

I think that you are assuming that I don't understand how such comparisons are made, when in fact I understand the issues at play as well or better than you.  So theories aside what is your specific issue with the information in the 12.26.75 podcast?  Please be specific. 

I've got 15 distinctive MO characteristics, what do you have?  Let's hear it in plain and simple English. 

[intuitiva]

Mar 2, 2018 22:34:14 GMT sammyt said:

Mar 2, 2018 22:24:52 GMT redding2 said:

It is a myth because the evidence says so.  So is detective Clark wrong when he concludes that the 1973 offender and the EAR are most likely the same guy?  Also where did the EAR come from and where did the VR go?  And what do you have against podcasts?  It is just a modern way to convey information.  It is the content that matters.  They used actual police reports.  What specifically did they get wrong?

I think EAR probably was VR, but why doesn't Det. Clark doesn't he say it's definitely the same guy?

If he says it's only 'most likely' then he's admitting that there's some room for him to be wrong.

There's no proof of connecting the 2 other than trying to fill in for some missing timeline info...  Well, if there's no evidence of EAR doing anything and VR starts, then EAR and VR must be the same guy...  But, that as I've said to Winters once, is a Post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy - "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X".  Of course, it's possible for them to be the same offender, but you need to offer more proof through evidence to support that idea than a filling in the blanks on a timeline.  There's evidence that EAR probably started in Rancho Cordova, but there's not much evidence to support the connection(s) between EAR and VR.

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 22:58:29 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 22:34:14 GMT sammyt said:

I think EAR probably was VR, but why doesn't Det. Clark doesn't he say it's definitely the same guy?

If he says it's only 'most likely' then he's admitting that there's some room for him to be wrong.

There's no proof of connecting the 2 other than trying to fill in for some missing timeline info...  Well, if there's no evidence of EAR doing anything and VR starts, then EAR and VR must be the same guy...  But, that as I've said to Winters once, is a Post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy - "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X".  Of course, it's possible for them to be the same offender, but you need to offer more proof through evidence to support that idea than a filling in the blanks on a timeline.  There's evidence that EAR probably started in Rancho Cordova, but there's not much evidence to support the connection(s) between EAR and VR.

Boy are you way off.  The connections between the 1973 guy and the VR are as strong as any other connection in this case except DNA.  I think that you are forgetting about the 15 distinctive MO connections.  Why are you refusing to look at the actual evidence?

[intuitiva]

Mar 2, 2018 23:03:53 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 22:58:29 GMT intuitiva said:

There's no proof of connecting the 2 other than trying to fill in for some missing timeline info...  Well, if there's no evidence of EAR doing anything and VR starts, then EAR and VR must be the same guy...  But, that as I've said to Winters once, is a Post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy - "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X".  Of course, it's possible for them to be the same offender, but you need to offer more proof through evidence to support that idea than a filling in the blanks on a timeline.  There's evidence that EAR probably started in Rancho Cordova, but there's not much evidence to support the connection(s) between EAR and VR.

Boy are you way off.  The connects between the 1973 guy and the VR are as strong as any other connection in this case except DNA.  I think that you are forgetting about the 15 distinctive MO connections.  Why are you refusing to look at the actual evidence?

Talk about being "way off" saying that I'm refusing to look at the actual evidence....that's funny coming from someone who knows nothing about me or what I do...

What I'm saying again (for the 15th time), is that the distinctive MO connections aren't that distinct and are actually shared between similar sexual offenders - read the pdf I posted.  Do some research on similar offenders and you will find that they share similar behavior patterns.  Stealing ids, rummaging through women's undergarments, taking precautions to escape the house, stealing random items, ransacking, taking items and dumping them in random locations, etc. are all not uncommon for similar sexual offenders...

***Is redding2 a resurrection of the old "redding"

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 23:18:40 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:03:53 GMT redding2 said:

Boy are you way off.  The connects between the 1973 guy and the VR are as strong as any other connection in this case except DNA.  I think that you are forgetting about the 15 distinctive MO connections.  Why are you refusing to look at the actual evidence?

Talk about being "way off" saying that I'm refusing to look at the actual evidence....that's funny coming from someone who knows nothing about me or what I do...

What I'm saying again (for the 15th time), is that the distinctive MO connections aren't that distinct and are actually shared between similar sexual offenders - read the pdf I posted.  Do some research on similar offenders and you will find that they share similar behavior patterns.  Stealing ids, rummaging through women's undergarments, taking precautions to escape the house, stealing random items, ransacking, taking items and dumping them in random locations, etc. are all not uncommon for similar sexual offenders...

***Is redding2 a resurrection of the old "redding"

Then why do you think that the 1973 crimes are the EAR? 

[wovoka]

I'm sure others have too, but I've found a bunch in 72' that fit perfect with the 73' burglaries. Burglaries that involed just taking coins,banks,wallets,and a few dogs killed.
Wish i knew how to make a google map of them, like the ear attacks. It might help pin-point his location.

[trabuco]

I have read on this board somewhere that the VR stuffed pillows under his clothes to distort his actual description.

[intuitiva]

Mar 2, 2018 23:21:43 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:18:40 GMT intuitiva said:

Talk about being "way off" saying that I'm refusing to look at the actual evidence....that's funny coming from someone who knows nothing about me or what I do...

What I'm saying again (for the 15th time), is that the distinctive MO connections aren't that distinct and are actually shared between similar sexual offenders - read the pdf I posted.  Do some research on similar offenders and you will find that they share similar behavior patterns.  Stealing ids, rummaging through women's undergarments, taking precautions to escape the house, stealing random items, ransacking, taking items and dumping them in random locations, etc. are all not uncommon for similar sexual offenders...

***Is redding2 a resurrection of the old "redding"

Then why do you think that the 1973 crimes are the EAR?

Because if you read my previous posts with that study on similar offenders, you will see that there's a strong correlation between voyeuristic robberies and serial killers/rapists.  Also, EAR started in and continued to come back to Rancho Cordova.  A lot of serial offenders also start where they feel the most comfortable - close to where they grew up, where they live, where they work, etc.  My whole contention from the start was that EAR started in Rancho Cordova as a voyeuristic robber, and that there's evidence to support this.  There are the dog beatings, the 10/75 rape incident, and now there are other reported voyeuristic robberies, attempted rapes, and a sketch that matches the Ripon Court sketch.  That's more than enough evidence to support that those 1972 - 1973 crimes are connected to EAR.  I'm sure that there will be more crimes connected to EAR soon in the 1974 - 1975 range that will further eliminate the connection to VR.

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 23:28:39 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:21:43 GMT redding2 said:

Then why do you think that the 1973 crimes are the EAR?

Because if you read my previous posts with that study on similar offenders, you will see that there's a strong correlation between voyeuristic robberies and serial killers/rapists.  Also, EAR started in and continued to come back to Rancho Cordova.  A lot of serial offenders also start where they feel the most comfortable - close to where they grew up, where they live, where they work, etc.  My whole contention from the start was that EAR started in Rancho Cordova as a voyeuristic robber, and that there's evidence to support this.  There are the dog beatings, the 10/75 rape incident, and now there are other reported voyeuristic robberies, attempted rapes, and a sketch that matches the Ripon Court sketch.  That's more than enough evidence to support that those 1972 - 1973 crimes are connected to EAR.  I'm sure that there will be more crimes connected to EAR soon in the 1974 - 1975 range that will further eliminate the connection to VR.

Why is it so hard to believe that he moved?  People move.  Clark has already said that there is an "obvious gap"

[intuitiva]

Mar 2, 2018 23:30:26 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:28:39 GMT intuitiva said:

Because if you read my previous posts with that study on similar offenders, you will see that there's a strong correlation between voyeuristic robberies and serial killers/rapists.  Also, EAR started in and continued to come back to Rancho Cordova.  A lot of serial offenders also start where they feel the most comfortable - close to where they grew up, where they live, where they work, etc.  My whole contention from the start was that EAR started in Rancho Cordova as a voyeuristic robber, and that there's evidence to support this.  There are the dog beatings, the 10/75 rape incident, and now there are other reported voyeuristic robberies, attempted rapes, and a sketch that matches the Ripon Court sketch.  That's more than enough evidence to support that those 1972 - 1973 crimes are connected to EAR.  I'm sure that there will be more crimes connected to EAR soon in the 1974 - 1975 range that will further eliminate the connection to VR.

Why is it so hard to believe that he moved?  People move.  Clark has already said that there is an "obvious gap"

"obvious gap" if even accurate, which I don't think it is personally, doesn't mean that they are the same offender - we are circling back to my logical fallacy post - Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 23:34:09 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:30:26 GMT redding2 said:

Why is it so hard to believe that he moved?  People move.  Clark has already said that there is an "obvious gap"

"obvious gap" if even accurate, which I don't think it is personally, doesn't mean that they are the same offender - we are circling back to my logical fallacy post - Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.

single earrings stolen?

[intuitiva]

Mar 2, 2018 23:35:59 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:34:09 GMT intuitiva said:

"obvious gap" if even accurate, which I don't think it is personally, doesn't mean that they are the same offender - we are circling back to my logical fallacy post - Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.

single earrings stolen?

We are going in circles here redding, you really do sound like the "old" redding...arguing just to argue.  Again, that could be explained by looking at similar offenders and their similar behavior patterns.  I don't think that stealing single earrings or stealing ids or ransacking or rummaging through women's underwear, etc. is all that uncommon for voyeuristic robbers.

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 23:27:40 GMT wovoka said:

I'm sure others have too, but I've found a bunch in 72' that fit perfect with the 73' burglaries. Burglaries that involed just taking coins,banks,wallets,and a few dogs killed.
Wish i knew how to make a google map of them, like the ear attacks. It might help pin-point his location.

Just use google earth.  How did you get your hands on the police reports?

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 23:42:08 GMT intuitiva said:

Mar 2, 2018 23:35:59 GMT redding2 said:

single earrings stolen?

We are going in circles here redding, you really do sound like the "old" redding...arguing just to argue.  Again, that could be explained by looking at similar offenders and their similar behavior patterns.  I don't think that stealing single earrings or stealing ids or ransacking or rummaging through women's underwear, etc. is all that uncommon for voyeuristic robbers.

It really isn't a matter of what you think it is a matter of MO links that professional LE makes.  I never argue just to argue.  In fact I am not even arguing with you.  I am just noting how weak your arguments are, and how you refuse to see rather obvious MO links.  It is getting tiresome so I probably won't respond to any of your future posts since you seem to be insincere IMO.

[wovoka]

Not the police reports. Crime section in the grapevine lists the crimes every month. Lists the address and items taken. There were tons of burglaries back then.