EAR Story On Investigation Discovery Channel March 5th

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2018 21:57:02 GMT richporce said:

Mar 6, 2018 20:35:57 GMT @endoftheworld said:

This show just proceeds with a lot of unproven theories. How do they know for sure the sheets of paper with the Custer essay, etc. belonged to the EAR? Does it have his DNA on it? Then they go charging along with the unproven theory of Holes that this guy worked in the construction industry. It's possible, of course. But it's just one of many possibilities. 

For some reason they declined to utter the word "Goleta". It's inaccurate to say the Goleta attacks were in "Santa Barbara". They were in the county, yes, but when you just say "Santa Barbara" that means the city. 

Also, so far at least they don't bring up the fact that there is no DNA link to Sac, Stockton, Modesto, or Davis, so it's possible there were copycats. In fact it's possible the EAR was a completely different person than the ONS. 

They're not "unproven theories". They're potential CLUES. Do you understand that the nature of a clue is that it POSSIBLY leads to important information?  Occam's razor suggests that it is FAR more likely they are EAR's papers than they were just randomly dropped there. 

Paper-deniers have nothing better to go on than "well it's not a scientific fact that they're his!". 

We have a 40 year old cold case. No 100% scientific evidence other than a DNA profile. Therefore we have to go on what we have, in order to catch the guy. And the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that those are EAR's papers, and he dropped them by mistake. It absolutely blows my mind that people try to argue that the most likely scenario is that some random kid dropped those papers and the wind blew them there by chance. No, THAT is the out-there suggestion. 

We have a mentally ill, rambling essay written by a person with obvious psycho-pathologies, along with a hand drawn aerial map of an EAR style attack area with the word "PUNISHMENT" angrily scrawled on the back of it, found at the exact spot that a bloodhound tracked the scent of a serial rapist immediately after a home-invasion rape. The condition of the papers (no weather or animal damage) shows that they couldn't have been outdoors long.

The OVERWHELMINGLY likely conclusion here is that these were EAR's papers and he accidentally dropped them when he was putting his ski mask into his bag, or as he opened his vehicle door. AS far as I'm concerned it is the people who want to suggest that they are not EAR's papers that have the explaining to do. 

Yeah, little Larry down the block was drawing aerial plans of EAR type neighborhoods, scrawling the word "punishment" on the back of it randomly, before he decided to write a crazed essay about how much hatred he felt in his heart when he was in 6th grade, only for little Larry to lose those papers, and a big old gust of wind blow them completely coincidentally to the exact spot that a serial rapist, later that day (it had to have been within a near time frame due to the complete lack of weather/animal damage to the papers), would run to after committing a home invasion rape. Sure thing! That sure sounds likely! 

Could well be a red herring that the EAR dropped himself at a time when he knew he was being pursued. I asked a serious question: did the papers have his DNA? Or prints?

BTW, I am not criticizing Holes for following that lead if that's what he believes. I'm criticizing the tv show for devoting all that time to what is probably a dead end. They could have talked to a lot of other detectives current and former. Holes is a good-looking guy so they figure they will get more ratings with him than with some old codger like Shelby or Crompton. It's Hollywood.

And they should have gone into the complexity of the case: VR, possible copycats, DNA match for only a few locations, etc.

I think it was good that Carol Daly (?) said a lot of people thought it was a cop. 

[hain23x]

i think this is a case that for the most part is unknown to people outside of California areas and true crime circles so they have to dumb it down on some level for people unfamiliar to the case. A lot of you all know the details of this case backwards and forwards that just about anything they might show will be old info.

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2018 22:41:16 GMT @endoftheworld said:

Mar 6, 2018 21:57:02 GMT richporce said:

They're not "unproven theories". They're potential CLUES. Do you understand that the nature of a clue is that it POSSIBLY leads to important information?  Occam's razor suggests that it is FAR more likely they are EAR's papers than they were just randomly dropped there. 

Paper-deniers have nothing better to go on than "well it's not a scientific fact that they're his!". 

We have a 40 year old cold case. No 100% scientific evidence other than a DNA profile. Therefore we have to go on what we have, in order to catch the guy. And the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that those are EAR's papers, and he dropped them by mistake. It absolutely blows my mind that people try to argue that the most likely scenario is that some random kid dropped those papers and the wind blew them there by chance. No, THAT is the out-there suggestion. 

We have a mentally ill, rambling essay written by a person with obvious psycho-pathologies, along with a hand drawn aerial map of an EAR style attack area with the word "PUNISHMENT" angrily scrawled on the back of it, found at the exact spot that a bloodhound tracked the scent of a serial rapist immediately after a home-invasion rape. The condition of the papers (no weather or animal damage) shows that they couldn't have been outdoors long.

The OVERWHELMINGLY likely conclusion here is that these were EAR's papers and he accidentally dropped them when he was putting his ski mask into his bag, or as he opened his vehicle door. AS far as I'm concerned it is the people who want to suggest that they are not EAR's papers that have the explaining to do. 

Yeah, little Larry down the block was drawing aerial plans of EAR type neighborhoods, scrawling the word "punishment" on the back of it randomly, before he decided to write a crazed essay about how much hatred he felt in his heart when he was in 6th grade, only for little Larry to lose those papers, and a big old gust of wind blow them completely coincidentally to the exact spot that a serial rapist, later that day (it had to have been within a near time frame due to the complete lack of weather/animal damage to the papers), would run to after committing a home invasion rape. Sure thing! That sure sounds likely! 

Could well be a red herring that the EAR dropped himself at a time when he knew he was being pursued. I asked a serious question: did the papers have his DNA? Or prints?

BTW, I am not criticizing Holes for following that lead if that's what he believes. I'm criticizing the tv show for devoting all that time to what is probably a dead end. They could have talked to a lot of other detectives current and former. Holes is a good-looking guy so they figure they will get more ratings with him than with some old codger like Shelby or Crompton. It's Hollywood.

And they should have gone into the complexity of the case: VR, possible copycats, DNA match for only a few locations, etc.

I think it was good that Carol Daly (?) said a lot of people thought it was a cop. 

BTW I don't buy the construction worker theory anyway. Sure most of his attacks were near a construction site, but the entire state of CA at that time was one big construction site, almost. If he was a construction worker, he worked with LOTS of people. Somebody would have turned in his name by now. If he was a construction worker during his Sac period, he would not have had the time to do all the stalking, prowling, and leisurely raping, and then take off his ski mask and go work a hard 10 hour day.

Anything's possible with the EAR. But if he was a construction worker in these general areas, why can't they get his name? I think he was more of a loner who had enough money from some source so that he didn't have to work. Who knows---maybe he pulled off one huge Brinks truck robbery or the like so he didn't have to work any more, and could devote his life to rape and murder?

[nocomment]

Mar 7, 2018 1:06:48 GMT @endoftheworld said:

Mar 6, 2018 22:41:16 GMT @endoftheworld said:

BTW I don't buy the construction worker theory anyway. Sure most of his attacks were near a construction site, but the entire state of CA at that time was one big construction site, almost. If he was a construction worker, he worked with LOTS of people. Somebody would have turned in his name by now. If he was a construction worker during his Sac period, he would not have had the time to do all the stalking, prowling, and leisurely raping, and then take off his ski mask and go work a hard 10 hour day.

Anything's possible with the EAR. But if he was a construction worker in these general areas, why can't they get his name? I think he was more of a loner who had enough money from some source so that he didn't have to work. Who knows---maybe he pulled off one huge Brinks truck robbery or the like so he didn't have to work any more, and could devote his life to rape and murder?

It is possible that nobody recognized him, that the composites are not accurate, or that he was above suspicion.

While I think you are correct in regards to construction generally, the number of coworkers is dependant on the builder, method and local convention - the number of concurrent sites, the size of those sites and how the builder sequences and schedules the construction process.

If the builder handles a small number of sites, that are on the smaller end of the spectrum, it is likely there are only 1-2 teams of specialists on site at any given time. Painters often work in small teams. And there are tasks that are often performed by individuals, for instance, Tilers and cleaners. Additionally, if a subcontractor only works for one builder, they may have a lot of spare time, or large breaks between jobs.

Episodes 1-3 of the ID show have been capped and released. Most piracy sites should pick them up soon. If you can't find them, inbox me.

[hain23x]

Maybe a contractor’s son and didn’t have to really “work” work. Very lax schedule . Check in places for a while BS a little ...

[Deleted]

Mar 7, 2018 2:12:23 GMT nocomment said:

Mar 7, 2018 1:06:48 GMT @endoftheworld said:

BTW I don't buy the construction worker theory anyway. Sure most of his attacks were near a construction site, but the entire state of CA at that time was one big construction site, almost. If he was a construction worker, he worked with LOTS of people. Somebody would have turned in his name by now. If he was a construction worker during his Sac period, he would not have had the time to do all the stalking, prowling, and leisurely raping, and then take off his ski mask and go work a hard 10 hour day.

Anything's possible with the EAR. But if he was a construction worker in these general areas, why can't they get his name? I think he was more of a loner who had enough money from some source so that he didn't have to work. Who knows---maybe he pulled off one huge Brinks truck robbery or the like so he didn't have to work any more, and could devote his life to rape and murder?

It is possible that nobody recognized him, that the composites are not accurate, or that he was above suspicion.

While I think you are correct in regards to construction generally, the number of coworkers is dependant on the builder, method and local convention - the number of concurrent sites, the size of those sites and how the builder sequences and schedules the construction process.

If the builder handles a small number of sites, that are on the smaller end of the spectrum, it is likely there are only 1-2 teams of specialists on site at any given time. Painters often work in small teams. And there are tasks that are often performed by individuals, for instance, Tilers and cleaners. Additionally, if a subcontractor only works for one builder, they may have a lot of spare time, or large breaks between jobs.

Episodes 1-3 of the ID show have been capped and released. Most piracy sites should pick them up soon. If you can't find them, inbox me.

During the entire time of his Sac activity, he could not have been working construction. However he did have non-raping periods during the summers, at which time he could have gone somewhere (anywhere) to go work during the peak construction period.

[Deleted]

BTW, one thing that the SB detective said got my attention. He noted that basically in all his earlier rapes he had no trouble with the victims escaping. But when he got near the ocean he did have this problem. The detective said maybe he lost his skill, or words to that effect. But another possibility is he was not the same guy. The EAR tied the victims TIGHT, and they didn't escape.

When his troubles started maybe it was some copycat who did not have the tightness technique down.

The point being we don't know for sure the EAR was the same guy.

[Deleted]

Is Stan Los still alive?

[ElfinEars]

Can someone do a thread of any new or interesting bits from the show?

[Ranger71]

FindOns posted this in another thread specifically on Elliott Homes:



"H.C. Elliot was a client of the computer company I worked for in Sacramento in 1977-1980 - they had old card readers at the time and converted to some of the first computer systems for business out there. Our company was downtown at Capitol Mall. Worked mostly with Contractors and Medical Offices. They also (if I recall correctly) had state accounts or did work for the State downtown. I have an old friend who would know more and who worked with them downtown."

This seems to incorporate alot of possible avenues together in one..Construction, downtown Sac Capitol area, computers, worked with contractors/medical offices. Seems like there should be some way to work with this.

[locard]

Mar 6, 2018 22:41:16 GMT @endoftheworld said:

Mar 6, 2018 21:57:02 GMT richporce said:

They're not "unproven theories". They're potential CLUES. Do you understand that the nature of a clue is that it POSSIBLY leads to important information?  Occam's razor suggests that it is FAR more likely they are EAR's papers than they were just randomly dropped there. 

Paper-deniers have nothing better to go on than "well it's not a scientific fact that they're his!". 

We have a 40 year old cold case. No 100% scientific evidence other than a DNA profile. Therefore we have to go on what we have, in order to catch the guy. And the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that those are EAR's papers, and he dropped them by mistake. It absolutely blows my mind that people try to argue that the most likely scenario is that some random kid dropped those papers and the wind blew them there by chance. No, THAT is the out-there suggestion. 

We have a mentally ill, rambling essay written by a person with obvious psycho-pathologies, along with a hand drawn aerial map of an EAR style attack area with the word "PUNISHMENT" angrily scrawled on the back of it, found at the exact spot that a bloodhound tracked the scent of a serial rapist immediately after a home-invasion rape. The condition of the papers (no weather or animal damage) shows that they couldn't have been outdoors long.

The OVERWHELMINGLY likely conclusion here is that these were EAR's papers and he accidentally dropped them when he was putting his ski mask into his bag, or as he opened his vehicle door. AS far as I'm concerned it is the people who want to suggest that they are not EAR's papers that have the explaining to do. 

Yeah, little Larry down the block was drawing aerial plans of EAR type neighborhoods, scrawling the word "punishment" on the back of it randomly, before he decided to write a crazed essay about how much hatred he felt in his heart when he was in 6th grade, only for little Larry to lose those papers, and a big old gust of wind blow them completely coincidentally to the exact spot that a serial rapist, later that day (it had to have been within a near time frame due to the complete lack of weather/animal damage to the papers), would run to after committing a home invasion rape. Sure thing! That sure sounds likely! 

Could well be a red herring that the EAR dropped himself at a time when he knew he was being pursued. I asked a serious question: did the papers have his DNA? Or prints?

BTW, I am not criticizing Holes for following that lead if that's what he believes. I'm criticizing the tv show for devoting all that time to what is probably a dead end. They could have talked to a lot of other detectives current and former. Holes is a good-looking guy so they figure they will get more ratings with him than with some old codger like Shelby or Crompton. It's Hollywood.

And they should have gone into the complexity of the case: VR, possible copycats, DNA match for only a few locations, etc.

I think it was good that Carol Daly (?) said a lot of people thought it was a cop. 

I also think that EAR planted a red herring. He could have stolen the notebook from a kid's bedroom (ransacking or even a family member, after all he stole kids' piggy banks), drawn a map of a development (which shows some level of sophistication and it could be a profession that he learned from a parent). This guy was a pretty methodical offender. I just don't buy that the papers were "an accident". I think if he is responsible for them, he planted them.

[locard]

Mar 7, 2018 2:28:14 GMT @endoftheworld said:

BTW, one thing that the SB detective said got my attention. He noted that basically in all his earlier rapes he had no trouble with the victims escaping. But when he got near the ocean he did have this problem. The detective said maybe he lost his skill, or words to that effect. But another possibility is he was not the same guy. The EAR tied the victims TIGHT, and they didn't escape.

When his troubles started maybe it was some copycat who did not have the tightness technique down.

The point being we don't know for sure the EAR was the same guy.

True enough, since Sacramento LE tossed out all of their DNA kits (and whatever other biological evidence they had on the EAR), tossed out the files, and on and on. The heads of Sac LE should have devoted entire rooms and lab space to the EAR. It's not rocket science to figure out that science develops and there will be advances that can later be used. 

I really wish some obssessive compulsive hoarder was in charge at Sac LE during the day. 

[Ranger71]

Did Elliot Homes build part of Calle Real as well as homes in Goleta/SB?

[missd]

I'm just watching this show, and had never heard about this case until this month. I had a strong feeling this guy was a surveyor. The map triggered this thought, and I googled the case and found this forum. Does anyone really notice a surveyor? It's the kind of job you can "survey" an area an no one is going to question you. I think when you sell a house, you need a current survey? Has this been discussed?

[antioch1978]

Really enjoying the crime scene visits...VR attention too....Thumbs waaaaay up