ONS is not EAR

[leonidis]

Mar 16, 2018 18:21:02 GMT jackydee said:

Mar 16, 2018 18:04:48 GMT leonidis said:

There is a small possibility for anything. Run a t-test at p <.05, and let us know if the results are significant.

LE knows way more about this than they are letting us, or you, know for that matter. They are flat out saying that the MO is so unique that it has only been used during those crimes, and never again. Also, 2 very unique things were done, in addition to what we have been told. It would be beyond comprehension for another offender to just happen to be doing the same kind of crimes, in the same area, at the he same relative times, and using the same exact MO (including 2 very unique identifiers). I can't imagine what Belli could say that would make anyone feel otherwise. LE uses MO everyday, and it appears this MO is so strong, that some local, state, and FBI agree that it is the same guy.

I am sure that the there is a chance, but that chance is so infinitesimally small that 2 people could commit crimes in the the exact same way in multiple jurisdictions that are like carbon copies and include multiple unique identifiers, that it is almost mind boggling to calculate. If that is true, then why did both stop vomiting crimes, and if the MO is so easily replicated, then why wasn't it being used throughout the country? Afterall, it was extremely successful, it seems!

Sorry, you are not accurately reporting what Paul Holes said in that clip you posted. He did not say "2 very unique things were done". Holes simply said "there were two things he would do that we are not ready to share". At no point did Holes say these two things were unique. I would think these two things point to the same perp, but please don't exaggerate how unique these things were.

Interestingly Holes misspoke as he said it. He started to say two items instead of two things. I wonder if one of these unshared things was leaving or taking an item.

I posted the video of Belli saying EXACTLY what I told you.

youtu.be/Tdk9V0QSSj4

Here it is again. I would embed it, but what difference would that make. Look at the video, and start at 14:17. He makes all of this perfectly clear. People are asking the same questions you ask here, and he tells them exactly what I am referencing here. Look at it....or not! Either way, it is the same guy!

I referenced Belli...not Holes. However, they are in agreement.

[roberson]

Is the original post a really good troll, or just someone talking out of their butt? Congratulations, dude, either way.

[tt120]

Remember kids, if LE is so sure that all these crimes are connected to one guy and they have a bunch of evidence they are withholding from the public then why haven't they caught him? They have been "working" and I say that loosely, this angle for 40 years and still have nothing to show for it. Maybe it's time to look at other possibilities like what the OP has said.

Maybe, just maybe, LE doesn't have a clue what they're doing and it's going to take some outside the box thinking to solve this.

[jthou]

Mar 16, 2018 18:47:51 GMT tt120 said:

Remember kids, if LE is so sure that all these crimes are connected to one guy and they have a bunch of evidence they are withholding from the public then why haven't they caught him? They have been "working" and I say that loosely, this angle for 40 years and still have nothing to show for it. Maybe it's time to look at other possibilities like what the OP has said.

Maybe, just maybe, LE doesn't have a clue what they're doing and it's going to take some outside the box thinking to solve this.

So according to you the totally inept and utterly incompetent investigators who cannot catch one guy are now supposed to catch two despite having only one persons DNA? Good strategy. That is definitely thinking outside the box. Hopefully LE can catch the guy they have literally zero evidence against 40 years after the fact.

[leonidis]

Mar 16, 2018 19:01:09 GMT jthou said:

Mar 16, 2018 18:47:51 GMT tt120 said:

Remember kids, if LE is so sure that all these crimes are connected to one guy and they have a bunch of evidence they are withholding from the public then why haven't they caught him? They have been "working" and I say that loosely, this angle for 40 years and still have nothing to show for it. Maybe it's time to look at other possibilities like what the OP has said.

Maybe, just maybe, LE doesn't have a clue what they're doing and it's going to take some outside the box thinking to solve this.

So according to you the totally inept and utterly incompetent investigators who cannot catch one guy are now supposed to catch two despite having only one persons DNA? Good strategy. That is definitely thinking outside the box. Hopefully LE can catch the guy they have literally zero evidence against 40 years after the fact.

I can't seem to understand what exactly leads anyone to doubt that 1 goofball was committing the crimes. Now, I guess I can understand questioning the VR=EAR, but EAR=2EAR is a bit of a stretch.

[Drifter]

Mar 16, 2018 7:51:12 GMT tede said:

Uhhh they were connected by dna.

False.

The Original Night Stalker DNA was connected to the Contra Costa County rape attacks.

There is no DNA connection  between the EAR cases in Sacramento County and the rape attacks in Contra Costa County.

Drifter

[Drifter]

Mar 16, 2018 8:50:14 GMT drdoogie said:

I cannot say for certain that the Sac crimes were committed by the same perp as who committed the Bay Area and the SoCal crimes, but I believe they are close enough in MO to be the same guy. But if the OP is correct (and I cannot say with 100% certainty that he is incorrect), then EAR (the perp in the Sac crimes) willl never be caught - there is nothing to catch him with.

Okay, I am depressed now...

drdoogie said "... I believe they are close enought in MO ..."

That's been LE's standard line for decades.  Again, there is no proof that the EAR was the CC rapist.

... then EAR (the perp in the Sac crimes) willl never be caught - there is nothing to catch him with.

Correct.  And whose fault is that?  Which LE agency failed to identify the EAR?

Drifter

[BoxersFracture]

Mar 16, 2018 17:35:41 GMT jackydee said:

Mar 16, 2018 17:25:39 GMT leonidis said:

youtu.be/Tdk9V0QSSj4

18:18

If you know more than what LE knows, then you should let them know about it. Can you tell us about those 2 little bits of info that was done at all the crime scenes because I, and everyone else, would like to know. Otherwise, I still plan on going with 1 perp!

Wow you're a snarky one. All I have stated for umpteen times now in this thread is the small POSSIBILITY that the Sac rapes were not done by the same guy who did the CCC rapes. Read that again, a small POSSIBILITY. Now, if these 2 things he did were so unique as to exclusively rule out the small POSSIBILITY of 2 different perps then I am gladly proven wrong on that small POSSIBILITY. Until I know more about these 2 things im not about to discount the small POSSIBILITY of two different perps.

We all know its utterly impossible for LE to get things wrong.

It’s too bad a few posters attacked your hypothesis with such vigor. I appreciate what you’re doing and will, to the extent that I can, explore the idea further.

Some people (a vocal minority) on the board are so invested and locked into their convictions about the case that any deviation from their ideas gets attacked and/or ridiculed.

We’re 40 years on and he’s still an unsub. That tells me this case is damn close to unsolvable or something about the way we’re looking at it is broken.

Apologies in advance for trotting out an old cliche: “Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

[Drifter]

huckfin ...

Haven't had time to read your entire original post nor all of the responses to it.

It appears you have successfully stirred up a hornet's nest, with your provocative theory that the ONS is not the EAR.

Congrats for thinking outside the box.

This case desperately needs some re-thinking, especially rethinking that challenges the stodgy, authoritarian pronouncements of a LE agency that even after for 40 years, can't solve the EAR/ONS case.

Again, congratulations.

Drifter

[Drifter]

Mar 16, 2018 19:29:00 GMT BoxersFracture said:

Mar 16, 2018 17:35:41 GMT jackydee said:

Wow you're a snarky one. All I have stated for umpteen times now in this thread is the small POSSIBILITY that the Sac rapes were not done by the same guy who did the CCC rapes. Read that again, a small POSSIBILITY. Now, if these 2 things he did were so unique as to exclusively rule out the small POSSIBILITY of 2 different perps then I am gladly proven wrong on that small POSSIBILITY. Until I know more about these 2 things im not about to discount the small POSSIBILITY of two different perps.

We all know its utterly impossible for LE to get things wrong.

It’s too bad a few posters attacked your hypothesis with such vigor. I appreciate what you’re doing and will, to the extent that I can, explore the idea further.

Some people (a vocal minority) on the board are so invested and locked into their convictions about the case that any deviation from their ideas gets attacked and/or ridiculed.

We’re 40 years on and he’s still an unsub. That tells me this case is damn close to unsolvable or something about the way we’re looking at it is broken.

Apologies in advance for trotting out an old cliche: “Insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Well said, BF.

For the most part, the people who are "so invested and locked into their convictions about the case" are badge bunnies, those people who hero worship a LE establishment that never solved the case.

Insanity ... doing the same thing over and over ... yes indeed.

D.

[leonidis]

Mar 16, 2018 19:23:16 GMT Drifter said:

Mar 16, 2018 8:50:14 GMT drdoogie said:

I cannot say for certain that the Sac crimes were committed by the same perp as who committed the Bay Area and the SoCal crimes, but I believe they are close enough in MO to be the same guy. But if the OP is correct (and I cannot say with 100% certainty that he is incorrect), then EAR (the perp in the Sac crimes) willl never be caught - there is nothing to catch him with.

Okay, I am depressed now...

drdoogie said "... I believe they are close enought in MO ..."

That's been LE's standard line for decades.  Again, there is no proof that the EAR was the CC rapist.

... then EAR (the perp in the Sac crimes) willl never be caught - there is nothing to catch him with.

Correct.  And whose fault is that?  Which LE agency failed to identify the EAR?

Drifter

The second quote is taken out of context. He said if there are 2 EAR perps, then...

However, Sacramento is in full agreement, and never have wavered, with 1 EAR being responsible for all via MO and tons of physical evidence pointing to 1 ofender DNA is a modern crime tool, and MO is still being used every day.

what-when-how.com/forensic-sciences/modus-operandi/

www.wired.com/insights/2013/08/predictive-policing-using-machine-learning-to-detect-patterns-of-crime/

We all know that there are possible issues with every investigation, but some things have to be considered to be reliable in order to move forward. Otherwise, there can be no concerted effort to apprehend anyone because the left hand won't know what right hand is doing. I know 40 years have past, but those crimes were committed in a time where computers were not linking files, departments did not work together, and, to be honest, it seems that the general public seemed to turn a blind eye to the goings on in their neoghborhoods by not calling the police at the slightest noise. Also, the idiot seemed to be extremely lucky, but his DNA will not change, and science has a way of finding the answers! The right person doing the searching might make all the difference.

[TheBelt]

You have my tacit agreement until such time as I revoke it.

[locard]

Mar 16, 2018 9:50:22 GMT claudius_2014 said:

Mar 16, 2018 7:40:04 GMT huckfinn said:

EAR = Visalia Ransacker
Rapes: #1-36 (July 6, 1978)

ONS Rapes & Murders: #37- 39; #42-48
- #40 & 41 in SJ are copy cats

1. ONS was violent with women and men beyond rape. EAR merely threatened people.
- Big difference in psychological makeup
- The only time EAR killed was when he was threatened or his identity known (Prof. Snelling & Maggiores)

2. ONS murdered for the sexual thrill

3. ONS rapes escalated quickly into murder. EAR’s never did.

4. Everything about EAR’s MO was printed in the newspaper or broadcast on the news.
- Ligatures, method of entry, knife & gun, dishes, crying, hissing, clenching teeth while speaking, shoelaces, verbiage, lotion, etc.

5. ONS stole money and items of value. EAR rarely did.

6. Penis size was different according to victims.

If you compare the details of the rapes from 6/76 thru 7/78 vs. the East Bay ones from 10/78 - 7/81 + 5/86 you will see
they are clearly two different perpetrators with extremely different motives, MOs and signature.

ONS killed for sexual gratification.

It’s time we separate these two, start anew and begin a new suspect pool that is based on evidence that is completely separate for both monsters.

ONS DNA has been identified. EAR’s has not.

Since Sacramento’s Finest tossed out all the rape kits there will never be DNA for convicting the EAR. Additionally, if there are no fingerprints from the Maggiore murders or Prof. Snelling, then LE will be hard pressed to get a conviction even if they do find the culprit.

ONS is the scarier monster and he was clearly incarcerated from 81-86 for an unknown felony that did not require a DNA sample. Once released, he unleashed hell on Janelle Cruz.

Rapists & Killers don’t take breaks unless they are caught or are living out their fantasies with their partner in some way or another.

Start thinking of this case as two separate UNSUBS and the pieces will start to fall into place quickly.

Hint: They both have a long history of violent crimes.

why ons didn t continue crime after janelle ?

Research shows that most violent crimes are committed by men in their 20's. There are men, as we all know, who commit crimes in their 30's and beyond. 

Aging and life's responsibilities (work and family) usually leave little energy left for criminal activity. And that's a good thing. 

[Drifter]

leonidis wrote:

those crimes were committed in a time where computers were not linking files, departments did not work together, and, to be honest, it seems that the general public seemed to turn a blind eye to the goings on in their neoghborhoods by not calling the police at the slightest noise. Also, the idiot seemed to be extremely lucky

Leonidis ... With the supposedly antiquated technology LE had during the 1970s and early 80s ... LE everywhere, including Sacramento, were still identifying, prosecuting, and convicting criminals. Some posters will accept LE's meaningless excuses no matter how illogical those excuses are.

... the general public seemed to turn a blind eye to the goings on in their neoghborhoods by not calling the police at the slightest noise...

Heaven forbid that we hold LE accountable. Let's blame prospective victims instead.

Luck? You want to call a 100 percent evasion of some 40 rape attacks luck? You want to call a 100 percent evasion of 6 murder scenes ... luck?

With all due respect, leonidis, you need to consider taking a college level course in statistical probability theory. 

D.

[leonidis]

Mar 16, 2018 19:48:44 GMT Drifter said:

leonidis wrote:

those crimes were committed in a time where computers were not linking files, departments did not work together, and, to be honest, it seems that the general public seemed to turn a blind eye to the goings on in their neoghborhoods by not calling the police at the slightest noise. Also, the idiot seemed to be extremely lucky

Leonidis ... With the supposedly antiquated technology LE had during the 1970s and early 80s ... LE everywhere, including Sacramento, were still identifying, prosecuting, and convicting criminals. Some posters will accept LE's meaningless excuses no matter how illogical those excuses are.

... the general public seemed to turn a blind eye to the goings on in their neoghborhoods by not calling the police at the slightest noise...

Heaven forbid that we hold LE accountable. Let's blame prospective victims instead.

Luck? You want to call a 100 percent evasion of some 40 rape attacks luck? You want to call a 100 percent evasion of 6 murder scenes ... luck?

With all due respect, leonidis, you need to consider taking a college level course in statistical probability theory. 

D.

I am not even going to address your last point because I would actually blow your mind. I just got finished crunching 38 million data points dealing with a 4 year study that I have been working on with my daughter. I have performed every statistical analysis that is currently available. T-tests, F-tests, Standard Error, Regression, ANOVA you name it. Multiple millions of data sets and have the files to prove it. You can insult my ideas, and even insult me. I am not going to insult you. I can tell you that the person short on stats here is not me!