Man in the Window Talkback Thread

[eggirl]

Jun 21, 2019 6:09:33 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

The podcast highlights many of the tragic problems this case has been wrought with that are almost inconceivable to any rational thinking person.

There were those of us that discussed at length on this forum what our strong speculations were, as to why the EAR/GSK evaded capture for over forty years, but to hear we were correct in our speculations?

In my experience, I found it nauseating to hear that all of these "truths" that I strongly suspected, were scarily, indeed true.

I want to say, on the flip side, I am strongly encouraged that changes can be made, and the Merced Police Department is currently demonstrating that.

Merced, a city in the Central Valley, 115 miles south of Sacramento, and home to UC Merced, recently was in the news with a report of a rapist that broke into a woman's home and sexually assaulted her on June 12, 2019. Not waiting for a second rape to happen, the police proactively alerted the public to be vigilant, and to ensure their doors and windows were locked before they went to sleep at night. The police captain also warned, that in all of his years of experience, he knew that this type of rapist would not stop until apprehended. He strongly suggested that any additional victims report their rape to LE, to prevent any rapes in the future.

In addition, the news report also highlighted a sobering, troubling statistic from the Department of Justice: across the United States, only 23% of rapes are reported to the authorities, based on survey data. This is definitely an issue that needs to addressed in the public sphere, if we, as a society, are to reduce the current high number of rapes from reoccurring.Red,


EG Girl Here:  Red, excellent post, I had not heard of this recent crime in Merced.  The authorities there do seem to try to be learning.  On the matter of the early rape in Rancho that was first attributed to "another race." does ANYBODY remember reading this somewhere:  it was the Language used by the assailant--pretty awful I guess-that contributed to thinking the attacker was black.   I know I read that once.  ( I think all this implies is that the victims had never been around white people who cursed a lot?)

My (current) husband rode motorcycles for years and believes that it is entirely possible to hurt/kill a dog as Bonnie described JJD doing.  There would be no reason I can think of for her to make it up.  Have to be a pretty big bike, but I don't think JJD would ride around on a little "rice rocket"?

[Red909XMZ1]

Hi Eg Girl,

It is so good to hear from you.

It is so shocking to know that 77% of rapes in the U.S. are not reported. To know that the majority of rapists are walking around free, instead of sitting in a prison cell where they belong, is really an alarming problem.

Also, this statistic doesn't even take into account the rapes that were reported, but there was no arrest or conviction of the rapist. Combining those statistical percentages, one can only shudder to think how high the overall statistic likely is.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2019 0:04:26 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Hi Eg Girl,

It is so good to hear from you.

It is so shocking to know that 77% of rapes in the U S. are not reported. To know that the majority of rapists are walking around free, instead of sitting in a prison cell where they belong, is really an alarming problem.

Also, this statistic doesn't even take into account the rapes that were reported, but there was no arrest or conviction of the rapist. Combining those statistical percentages, one can only shudder to think how high the overall statistic likely is.

Yes it does take into account the ones that were reported. That's the point of the statistic. Reported Rapes.


How does it not take into account the ones that were reported but had no conviction? Where did you come up with that?

[Red909XMZ1]

Hi Eg Girl,

I just did some online research, and discovered that less than 1% of rapes in the U.S. result in a felony conviction.

I knew that the combined figures would be really dismal to show the overall rate of felony conviction, but 0.7% is so unbelievably unjust and tragic.

The research also shows that at least 89% of rape victims continue to suffer with various maladies after the rape has taken place: physical injury from the rape, depression, anxiety, PTSD, substance abuse, and so on.

What a horrible indictment on how rape is handled in our country.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2019 1:16:41 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Hi Eg Girl,

I just did some online research, and discovered that less than 1% of rapes in the U.S. result in a felony conviction.

I knew that the combined figures would be really dismal to show the overall rate of felony conviction, but 0.7% is so unbelievably unjust and tragic.

The research also shows that at least 89% of rape victims continue to suffer with various maladies after the rape has taken place: physical injury from the rape, depression, anxiety, PTSD, substance abuse, and so on.

What a horrible indictment on how rape is handled in our country.

Thanks for your 13 minutes of online research. I agree Red. The conviction rate is low. We are still looking for my aunt's rapist. That's why I'm here. But less than 1% ? Your research is flawed, and you back it up with no citations.

Let me know if you want some links to facts. I've been on this mission for almost 20 years. I've got the citations and links if you want them.

[elir]

Jun 22, 2019 2:01:33 GMT @wonkybob said:

Jun 22, 2019 1:16:41 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Hi Eg Girl,

I just did some online research, and discovered that less than 1% of rapes in the U.S. result in a felony conviction.

I knew that the combined figures would be really dismal to show the overall rate of felony conviction, but 0.7% is so unbelievably unjust and tragic.

The research also shows that at least 89% of rape victims continue to suffer with various maladies after the rape has taken place: physical injury from the rape, depression, anxiety, PTSD, substance abuse, and so on.

What a horrible indictment on how rape is handled in our country.

Thanks for your 13 minutes of online research. I agree Red. The conviction rate is low. We are still looking for my aunt's rapist. That's why I'm here. But less than 1% ? Your research is flawed, and you back it up with no citations.

Let me know if you want some links to facts. I've been on this mission for almost 20 years. I've got the citations and links if you want them.

This was reported in the Washington Post in 2018, the results were from an analysis done by an advocacy group based on combining a number of years of data from the Department iof Justice.

Without seeing the data, the design of the evaluation, and how they did the analysts , I am skeptical of the percentages being reported but am open to accepting the result if everything checks out.

My skepticism on the results arent unique to this study or subject , rather it’s my approach to any high profile results- if you look into these cases, the analyses may not pan out.

[Red909XMZ1]

Hi Elir,

Yes, that is correct.

I understand your valid points; however, this is exactly what I was looking for in terms of combined data.

There is no other study with published data that I am currently aware of that is as recent as this 2018 study.

Most noteworthy, the DOJ would be the governing body that would have the most updated, on point, statistically correct analysis.

[elir]

Jun 23, 2019 3:29:51 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Hi Elir,

Yes, that is correct.

I understand your valid points; however, this is exactly what I was looking for in terms of combined data.

There is no other study with published data that I am currently aware of that is as recent as this 2018 study.

Most noteworthy, the DOJ would be the governing body that would have the most updated, on-point, statistically correct analysis.

The DOJ didn’t provide the analysis , the analysis was done by the advocacy group which took available data from the DOJ . And therein lies the problem. There is a saying , something like “Lies , Damn lies, and statistics “ .

Trust me , unless you can walk back through each step , from taking the raw data and converting it to a dataset, to learning how the advocacy group defined certain terms and what specific kind of analysis they did , you can’t be sure if the results actually valid.

It is appalling how people can twist data to fit their expectations.

[Red909XMZ1]

Elir,

I conducted the online research myself, so I am aware and educated on everything you stated.

There is nothing you stated that I do not already know.

Thank you, though, for your input. Have a super weekend.

[drivelikejehu]

Finding the podcast pretty interesting now. Once you accept that there are no real "aha!" moments, it's excellent. In particular the last episode, I was lying in bed with clenched fists every time Lt Root opened his mouth. There are even a couple moments where he chuckles, perhaps nervously, but they turned my stomach. Chain of command, chain of command, chain of command - YUCK. I think Shelby and Crompton come out of it fairly well. The former obviously kicking himself for not taking the profile of JJD home to put in his freezer, but understandable he didn't, and the man lived the case well after his retirement.

Something I'd like some help on - the German Shepherd the lady and her mother encountered with the creep (her mother's words) - is that the dog who somebody kept letting out of the garden? It used to get out and drive the owner mad, as I recall (think there was possibly even an unrelated connection between Brett Glasby and the dog, he walked it sometimes or something like that; someone might correct me on that). But it's sort of fascinating if JJD was letting the dog out and walking around with it sometimes. Quite possibly the dog was out of its on accord that night, but still interesting!

[elir]

Jun 23, 2019 4:40:59 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Elir,

I conducted the online research myself, so I am aware and educated on everything you stated.

There is nothing you stated that I do not already know.

Thank you, though, for your input. Have a super weekend.

Then why did you say “Most noteworthy, the DOJ would be the governing body that would have the most updated, on point, statistically correct analysis”

which seems to imply that the analysis was done by the DOJ when it was done by an advocacy group called RAINN. And the data was culled from several sources with the major one being the DOJ’s NCVS.

According to the Washington Post
“Less than a third of rape incidents are reported to the police, according to an analysis by the nonprofit advocacy group RAINN (the Rape, Abuse and Incest National Network), which combined Justice Department National Crime Victimization Surveys from 2010 to 2014 with other federal data to track what happened to perpetrators.”

The analysis could be biased for a number of reasons. One reason could be bias in RAINN’s analysis . But if they did not substantially alter the data except to aggregate several years of data, then the data could still be biased despite the source.

The NCVS is supposed to be a representative survey covering a number of crimes not just sexual assault/rape. However, there are a number of potential sources of bias with the survey such as unequal response/nonresponse rates by age and geographic location.

The Post says RAINN’s conclusions were “ an estimate based on the best of the imperfect measures available.”

That is an understatement as we we don’t know for sure how non response might impact sexual assault reporting on the NCVS in other words if some people do not respond to the survey because they specifically do not wish to discuss sexual assault then the current rate might be an underestimate , even worse than 0.7 % . But if most people are not responding due to other issues ( distrust of surveys or bad experiences with law enforcement in general) then the rates for sexual assault might be unchanged or more favorable than present estimates .



The Post reviews another aspect of the study for which there is pretty solid supporting evidence in the literature . That the trauma of assault has long term consequences including physical problems likely related to the long term impacts of stress on the body.

In general RAINN did okay in terms of dealing with what they had but the NCVS is problematic . In my opinion the .trauma results are solid , but the numerical estimates are not reliable .

[Deleted]

About Man in the Window: What puzzles me is the way the writer declares a lot of details as facts that hitherto had not been known to have been proven e.g., that a seven year old child was sexually assaulted in attack #0 and that the EAR had indeed stabbed that german shepherd in Goleta. I think that the EAR stabbed that dog but I would have believed it unprovable at this point. The writer implies, however, that it has been proven that it was EARONS who stabbed the dog but doesn’t expose what the proof is.

That the article was released with the mistake that it was the son of Lyman Smith who found the bodies of Drs Manning and Offerman is unconscionable.

[Red909XMZ1]

Elir,

The reason I stated the "noteworthy" aspect of the DOJ is due to the fact that the data results are submitted directly to them from each state in the U.S.

Like I posted before, they would be the governing body that would have the most updated, on point figures.

If you desire to argue the statistical methods they or other sources have utilized, you are barking up the wrong tree.

Contact them, not me, to address those pertinent questions. Thank you.

[Red909XMZ1]

Hi Steel,

I really appreciate your post. I, too, have wondered the same things you have, and believe the author should have made a correction regarding the statement concerning the Smiths.

I also kept wondering who her sources were throughout the entire series, and how truly credible they were. I wish she would have provided that information throughout the entire podcast, instead of me consistently thinking every two minutes, "Gosh, where did she hear that?"

As a listener, I also found that the podcast itself was very disjointed, and not easy to listen to. It was not a seamless presentation by any means, and I believe it could of been arranged more methodically.

Just my two cents worth. Good to see you, Steel.

[kg]

Very discontinuous with all the very large time gaps, maybe the redaction rumor is true and that is why it seems disjointed.