Case Theories

[cleopatra]

Jan 11, 2021 20:37:56 GMT samisdad said:

Some thoughts on behavioral/ work/ changes/ changes in appearance , etc.
Smoker changes from cigs to chew or vice-versa. (Fear of possible evidence left.)
Change in appearance, (possible reasons).
Medical issue: (Cancer, chemo, vasectomy, Gastro operations/ weight loss, ED treatment)
Operation Possibly to overcome an injury sustained in attack.
Possibly why/if penetration or rape may not have been perpetuated.
Working out/ lack of exercise: To lose or gain weight,
Jobs: Trucker/ change in routes. Long/ short haul switch. Employer change.
Clothing style: From layered, with hoodie underneath to alternative. Heavier jacket lighter undershirt.
Sports team logos versus hunting sports logos or work apparel logos,
Bolder colors versus camo and earth tones Running shoes
versus boots.

Possible Student return or off at school. (University, Trade, etc.)
     Grades or major: Recent change from previous GPA or change in Major.
     Recent drop out, before or after incident. Transfer to different school.
     Loss of scholarship: Athletic or academic, loss of prestige.

Relational: Loss of custody of child(ren). {Retaliation of former CPS, child services building?}
     Recent financial change in Child support responsibility or paternity.
     Birth of child or awareness of an unwanted pregnancy.
     Anniversary of loss of children or event with Child Services.

IMO  - Valentine's Day.  Turned down by maybe more than one woman for a Valentine's Day dinner, which was the next day.

[elir]

Feb 6, 2021 9:15:43 GMT cleopatra said:

Jan 11, 2021 20:37:56 GMT samisdad said:

Some thoughts on behavioral/ work/ changes/ changes in appearance , etc.
Smoker changes from cigs to chew or vice-versa. (Fear of possible evidence left.)
Change in appearance, (possible reasons).
Medical issue: (Cancer, chemo, vasectomy, Gastro operations/ weight loss, ED treatment)
Operation Possibly to overcome an injury sustained in attack.
Possibly why/if penetration or rape may not have been perpetuated.
Working out/ lack of exercise: To lose or gain weight,
Jobs: Trucker/ change in routes. Long/ short haul switch. Employer change.
Clothing style: From layered, with hoodie underneath to alternative. Heavier jacket lighter undershirt.
Sports team logos versus hunting sports logos or work apparel logos,
Bolder colors versus camo and earth tones Running shoes
versus boots.

Possible Student return or off at school. (University, Trade, etc.)
     Grades or major: Recent change from previous GPA or change in Major.
     Recent drop out, before or after incident. Transfer to different school.
     Loss of scholarship: Athletic or academic, loss of prestige.

Relational: Loss of custody of child(ren). {Retaliation of former CPS, child services building?}
     Recent financial change in Child support responsibility or paternity.
     Birth of child or awareness of an unwanted pregnancy.
     Anniversary of loss of children or event with Child Services.

IMO  - Valentine's Day.  Turned down by maybe more than one woman for a Valentine's Day dinner, which was the next day.

Alot is us have wondered about the significance of the date.

[cleopatra]

Feb 6, 2021 17:44:40 GMT elir said:

Feb 6, 2021 9:15:43 GMT cleopatra said:

IMO  - Valentine's Day.  Turned down by maybe more than one woman for a Valentine's Day dinner, which was the next day.

Alot is us have wondered about the significance of the date.

I believe the date is significant.

[derby]

Cleo -- You may well be right about the date being significant to the killer(s) in terms of revenge for personal rejection. It's also possible the date is significant for another reason that you ... the Queen of ancient Egypt! ... should recognize. Kidding, of course, about your knowledge. But it's worth considering that the date was important to both the girls and the killer(s) because it coincided with the ancient pagan festival of Lupercalia. Apparently, some historians believe Valentine's Day arose as an offshoot of Lupercalia. As described on history.com, unlike Valentine’s Day, Lupercalia was a bloody, violent and sexually-charged celebration awash with animal sacrifice, random matchmaking and coupling in the hopes of warding off evil spirits and infertility. Lupercalia was observed in the city of Rome from the 13th to the 15th of February. If so, then the fact the murders took place in Delphi may have also been significant to the killer(s) because of its connection to ancient Delphi in Greece. If so, then the killer(s) might not be from the immediate area but, rather, travelled there due to it's symbolic significance. Pure speculation, but it's easy to picture two young girls getting caught up in the mystery/romance of all this ancient esoteric stuff without realizing that a very small number of people use these ideas as an excuse for horrendous acts.

[samisdad]

Jan 11, 2021 20:37:56 GMT samisdad said:

Some thoughts on behavioral/ work/ changes/ changes in appearance , etc.
Smoker changes from cigs to chew or vice-versa. (Fear of possible evidence left.)
Change in appearance, (possible reasons).
Medical issue: (Cancer, chemo, vasectomy, Gastro operations/ weight loss, ED treatment)
Operation Possibly to overcome an injury sustained in attack.
Possibly why/if penetration or rape may not have been perpetuated.
Working out/ lack of exercise: To lose or gain weight,
Jobs: Trucker/ change in routes. Long/ short haul switch. Employer change.
Clothing style: From layered, with hoodie underneath to alternative. Heavier jacket lighter undershirt.
Sports team logos versus hunting sports logos or work apparel logos,
Bolder colors versus camo and earth tones Running shoes
versus boots.

Possible Student return or off at school. (University, Trade, etc.)
     Grades or major: Recent change from previous GPA or change in Major.
     Recent drop out, before or after incident. Transfer to different school.
     Loss of scholarship: Athletic or academic, loss of prestige.

Relational: Loss of custody of child(ren). {Retaliation of former CPS, child services building?}
     Recent financial change in Child support responsibility or paternity.
     Birth of child or awareness of an unwanted pregnancy.
     Anniversary of loss of children or event with Child Services.

[samisdad]

After viewing the "Boots on the ground" series I had a lot better grasp of the terrain, for sure. It is a lot more steep than I had envisioned.
I began wondering if onenof the girls broke away across the river and was caught up to or returned under threat of harm to the other girl.Crossing a stream/river while trying to maintain control of a person is way risky. Whether using a gun or a knife.
If the perp had this place picked out before then he had most likely been there before. The best path to exfiltrate would've been up the gully and to the cemetary area. Video is not clear if any trail exist from that area back to town. A vehicle could've been parked at the back of the cemetery and been unobserved from passerbys. To know says familiarity. Was the perp visiting a grave in the cemetery? Was it a hang out of some sort? If visiting a burial plot, is the date more significant of some one's death or burial than Valentine's Day. I wonder if the dates and names of burials was investigated?

[xiulan]

Just going to leave a few thoughts here. The hill the girls were directed down is not as steep as some have made out. It is a graded slope you can easily traverse standing up. I believe he was familiar with the trail and bridge, but not necessarily local to Delphi. There are several towns within 30 minutes' driving distance. He could have killed the girls and been home in any one of them by dinner. Lots of us in flyover country travel to go to parks and trails. It isn't uncommon. He also wouldn't have casually walked trails like normal people, he'd have been there with a singular purpose and focused on things like terrain, exit routes, etc.

From where he killed Abby and Libby, there is an indirect straightforward route back to the trail leading out of that area. LE are almost certain he parked at an abandoned CPS building that would have given him a nice secluded parking spot. When LE came to the scene en masse, they piled into the cemetery. Not only was there no evidence the perpetrator had left that way, there is ample evidence from witnesses that he walked the route back toward the CPS building.

I don't believe he had to have been a current resident of Delphi. He might have lived there previously or in a surrounding town from which he drove to Delphi to check out the park/trail. He was likely familiar with many trails in the region. I think he will be younger than people generally believe and/or he will have committed a murder or murders prior to this. He clearly went to the trail that day intending to kill someone, but I do not think he went there to kill Abby and Libby specifically.

Unfortunately, LE continues to act as though their last big press conference was the early days of the investigation. I believe there are significant details about the manner of Abby and Libby's deaths that would be that one thing someone needs to confirm to themselves that a specific friend or family member is this killer. I'm not sure I've ever seen LE beg so much for the public's assistance while giving them zero information to go on.

[samisdad]

Do we even know if the girls clothes were wet from the creek? I'm not sure of the relevancy, but if the girls clothes were wet we could then surmise that the perp's clothing was wet at some point. Muddy boots thrown out and new boots purchased, (Due to concern over blood stain or boot impressions on the ground.). Blood on one's person at that time of year would not have been explainable by deer hunting at that time of year, unless maybe Duck/Geese season. A explanation to an observer of blood may have required a confession of poaching to avoid further inquiry. But lack of evidence in the freezer would disrupt that story.
Would wetness, blood or mud have been noticeable to a passerby on the trail or in town,
or anyone picking the perp up from the creek area
or by a member of the perp's household?
Hunting partners may have discussed previous scouting out of the area without follow-up. Due to not wanting to place themselves in the area of the murders.

[bltc2001]

Although I have been aware of this case for some time, this is the first deep-dive I've done into this crime. Just some quick thoughts. The extended audio released makes me believe this is someone who is used to working with children/young adults, or is authoritarian enough to be comfortable projecting a sense of authority. His voice is calm, clear, and decisive, I agree with whomever mentioned that he was projecting disappointment, or feigning for their safety. Very teacher/coach/LE-like, IMHO. "Guys? Down the hill." Very matter-of-fact.

www.in.gov/isp/files/Delphi_Audio_Edited_2019x3.wav

The fact he evidently back-tracked to the abandoned CPS building means he was comfortable with the risk - did he skirt the creek back under the bridge to evade tracking dogs? If so, he ran the risk of being spotted on bridge and trail from above, so he must have moved slowly and deliberately if that was the case. The now-demolished building is to the west east of and immediately adjacent to the two-lane highway. EDIT: The building was west of the crime scene, but just east of the highway.

storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/376b330912cf4e549d78dedfc54f7d32

He could have masqueraded as a fisherman which could explain why he was down by the river if seen. I haven't found the fishing seasons allowed on Deer Creek, but the DNR page for that area listed available fish to be "bluegill, crappie, bass and catfish" which, in our part of upstate NY, are very common and not governed by specific seasons as the trout and salmon are. One can find a wealth of information on fishing that stretch of the creek, so a local would not find someone on the creek during that time to be someone unusual, nor question anyone with wet boots and a pole coming off the trail. The fact no one has reported seeing anyone on the creek at that time suggests that, if he did use that as an escape route, he was very deliberate and careful in doing so. JMHO.

[bltc2001]

The Actus Reus website has an excellent timeline of the events surrounding Libby and Abby's case.

www.actus-reus.com/delphi-timeline

Some pertinent events:

1:38 p.m.
Phone records show sister Kelsi receives a call from her BF at 1:38 and drops off the girls at the one trail access while talking to him. Approximate time of the drop-off would be ~1:40 p.m.

2:05 p.m.
Libby uploads a picture of the Monon Bridge to her Snapchat.

2:07 p.m.
Libby uploads a picture of Abby on the Monon Bridge. Libby had been across the bridge before, but this was Abby's first crossing.

Unknown time
Libby begins recording video. (LE should know the exact time she started video, but we don't.) According to the People Mag and ID channel shows, the families were able to listen to the recordings and said most of the chatter was, "girl stuff', but they were paying attention to BG who was coming towards them across the bridge.

Unknown time
LE should know the exact time of the encounter when BG orders them down the hill. That information has not been released, but we can surmise it was in the 2:15 - 2:25 p.m. time range. BG was not on the bridge in the photo of Abby that Libby posted on Snapchat - one can see a dot on the trail on the other side of the bridge that may be him, but he wasn't there yet. According to those that have crossed, the bridge is a bit daunting and requires some deliberate steps. A fast crossing time would be 7 - 8 minutes, and most people take 10 - 15 minutes.

Why did Libby and Abby wait for BG to cross the bridge to them? Short of hiking down the hill, crossing Deer Creek and hiking through some dense woods, that was their expected path back to the trail access where Libby's father Derrick was going to pick them up. I believe they were waiting for him to go by so that they could re-cross, head to the trail access and wait for Libby's father.

3:11 p.m.
Phone records show father Derrick called Libby to tell her he was close and that they should start back to the trail access. The phone rang, but eventually went to voicemail.

At that point, one would surmise the girls were either under his control or, horribly, already passed.

3:14 p.m.
Derrick pulls into the parking lot.

3:15 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
Derrick searches the trails. Along the way, he encounters FSG (flannel shirt guy, someone who has since been interviewed and was one of the first witnesses interviewed) who says he hasn't seen the girls, but that there was a couple on the bridge. Derrick never finds the girls as they were not discovered until the next day.

I'll end my synopsis at this point, but I would encourage the gentle reader to review the Actus Reus timeline for the rest of the story.

BG knew the bridge was a gate - once someone crossed, the most likely exit from the trail to a ride home was to go back across the bridge. Short of the girls running down the hill, crossing Deer Creek in the shallow area (which they may or may not have known about), and running through a unknown wooded area to the road, they were essentially trapped. So, IMHO, they were creeped out by him, but waited to let him pass before returning to the trail access for their ride. They were 13 and 14 - they didn't assume the worst in people as us jaded older folks do.

I believe BG had a plan, he knew where to take them so that they would be out of sight. I also believe he took them in the direction of his intended exit from the crime scene. I know LE is very interested in the unknown car parked by the abandoned CPS building adjacent to the highway, but a Google map search shows that the building was approximately 4000 feet from the general area of the crime scene as the crow flies. On foot, depending upon BG's path back to the CPS building, it's a mile to a mile and a half away. I don't believe he re-crossed Deer Creek, hiked up the hill, re-crossed the bridge - it would have been a miracle that he didn't encounter Derrick or any other family member who had started to show up in the 4:00 - 5:00 p.m. timeframe. In addition, we know he was wearing blue jeans, and anyone who has gotten wet in jeans knows they stay noticeably wet for a long time.

We are not aware of anyone being reported to hike the river or the road back to the CPS building - LE is very closed-mouthed about this crime, so it's possible that someone was seen that we are not aware of, but I think that's unlikely as that information would have been good public information early in the investigation for BOLO notices/Amber alerts.

Google maps show the Delphi cemetery is approximately 550 feet from the assumed crime scene, just up the hill and through the woods. I know LE is focused on the unknown vehicle at the CPS building, and I could be completely wrong, but here is my best guess:

*BG knew the area and had scoped out the potential crime scene;
*He was on the prowl, he knew the bridge was a trap, and poor Libby and Abby were in the wrong place at the wrong time;
*There are a lot of secluded areas within walking distance off of that trail in several directions - why make it hard on ones self and have to double back? He had the direction picked out as it offered seclusion and a quick getaway.
*He parked in the back of the cemetery out of sight, after the crime, it was a quick 5 - 6 minute walk through secluded woods, and he was on the road less than 10 minutes after leaving the crime scene.

JMHO.

[elir]

Recent arrest of 42 year old male in Lafayette Indiana for abduction and sexual assault of a 9 year old .
Look at the arrest picture. Lives within an hour of the area, resembles one of the sketches. Goes after little girls. Hope LE takes a good look at him for the Delphi killings.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/crime/lafayette-man-arrested-after-missing-9-year-old-girl-found-injured-in-his-home/531-3f2a321f-9f88-4df5-a9e4-a94dc5e40a68

[elir]

Apr 27, 2021 3:05:23 GMT JayB130 said:

Apr 25, 2021 6:09:56 GMT elir said:

Recent arrest of 42 year old male in Lafayette Indiana for abduction and sexual assault of a 9 year old .
Look at the arrest picture. Lives within an hour of the area, resembles one of the sketches. Goes after little girls. Hope LE takes a good look at him for the Delphi killings.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/crime/lafayette-man-arrested-after-missing-9-year-old-girl-found-injured-in-his-home/531-3f2a321f-9f88-4df5-a9e4-a94dc5e40a68

Check out this creepy tattoo Chadwell has on one of his arms. Wow.

www.reddit.com/r/LibbyandAbby/comments/mz1h54/ive_had_a_few_requests_to_make_a_post_for_this/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Yikes! 

[elir]

Apr 27, 2021 3:57:01 GMT elir said:

Apr 27, 2021 3:05:23 GMT JayB130 said:

Check out this creepy tattoo Chadwell has on one of his arms. Wow.

www.reddit.com/r/LibbyandAbby/comments/mz1h54/ive_had_a_few_requests_to_make_a_post_for_this/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Yikes! 

He's been charged with attempted murder among other things in the assault on the 9 year old.
Here is his mugshot as compared to the two Delphi sketches.

[elir]

He is being investigated for potential links to Delphi:
www.jconline.com/story/news/crime/2021/04/27/attempted-murder-defendant-investigated-ties-delphi-murders/4852721001/

Really hoping this is it, but there have been other people of interest that appeared to be decent matches ( Daniel Nations, Paul Etter) that have been considered and dismissed from consideration.

[almagata]

Apr 27, 2021 17:06:05 GMT elir said:

He is being investigated for potential links to Delphi:
www.jconline.com/story/news/crime/2021/04/27/attempted-murder-defendant-investigated-ties-delphi-murders/4852721001/

Really hoping this is it, but there have been other people of interest that appeared to be decent matches ( Daniel Nations, Paul Etter) that have been considered and dismissed from consideration.

I'm beginning to think that 50% if the men in Indiana could be the Delphi Killer.  Let's hope LE will be able to rule out or in Caldwell fairly quickly through work or phone records. 

I don't happen to believe Caldwell is the right man.  Caldwell could not kill a 9 year old in the privacy of his home and Abby and Libby were killed quickly in a public place.