Serial Rapist profile can we apply it to EAR

[bobthebuilder]

This profile may tell us a reasonable amount about EAR

www.aic.gov.au/media_library/conferences/outlook97/manning.pdf

Residential Location


Much research has been carried out both in the United States and the United Kingdom  on the subject of serial rapists and the locations of their crimes. Of particular interest to the Operation Park investigation team was research carried out by Canter and  Gregory and published in a paper headed ‘Identifying the Residential Location of Rapists’ . About ten percent of the serial rapists studied fitted the commuter hypothesis, where the offender travelled from his home or base into a selected area from which he moved out when travelling to his offence venue or venues. The remaining (90% of) serial rapists fitted the marauder hypothesis, where the  offender moved out from his home or base to commit his crimes and then returned, going out on different directions on different occasions.

Essentially this research suggests that marauder rapists generally offend within the environment in which they live, that they have a defined criminal range beyond which they do not offend and that they often create a safety zone around their residential location or base within which they also do not offend.

Predicting Previous Criminal History

The Operation Park investigation team carried out an analysis of published US and  United Kingdom material available on serial rapists to determine whether or not serial
 stranger rapists have a common or predictable criminal background. It became immediately apparent that the typical American and United Kingdom stranger intruder rapist to all intents and purposes is identical in criminal background. The typical USA/UK stranger intruder rapist has the following general characteristics (inter alia).
 

1. First convicted of any criminal offence at the average age of 15 years.

2. First convicted for the crime of rape at the average age of 25 years

3. Approximately ninety percent fit the Canter and Gregory marauder hypothesis.

4. Almost invariably the rapist has a history of juvenile offending.

5. Almost invariably an intruder rapist has previous convictions for house burglary.

6. At the time of his arrest for the rape series for which he was responsible he is unlikely to have a previous rape or sexual related conviction.

7. The rapist’s victims are, in the vast majority of cases, strangers who have been identified as vulnerable by prowling activity.

8. The individual will generally continue to offend until arrested or prevented from offending by some other means.


Based on the profile above 

Looking at the profile I would propose the Sacramento spree looks like a marauder type offender (at least in this phase). I think therefore we have a hit for a residential location in Carmichael (although I wouldn't shut down Rancho Cordova completely).

I think its most likely he was a juvenile offender, but less likely an adult convict (although again I wouldn't shut it down). If he was an adult offender it doesn't seem he was well known to local LE (therefore he was probably a pretty successful burglar). He may have had reasonably well off parents to provide legal support should he have ended up in trouble for burglary.

As I have said before I think he was 24 years oldish. Prowling is a given.
I think he may have stopped offending due to family commitments (like James Lloyd or BTK) 

I am unsure if he was sexually abused as a child, baby lotion says yes, his treatment of young children tells me no. I think he was almost certainly mentally or physically abused. I wonder if he felt oppressed by a strick religeous mother ((SDA?) 

If the Police had a database it would be god to run the profile and mix some of the other suspected data such a likely employments and seventh day adventist

[bobthebuilder]

2005) - Linking stranger rapes 93

Characteristic Variable definition Percentagea

LivesArea The offender lived in the area of the crime                                               68.8
Alcohol The offender was under the influence of alcohol during the attack                   62.5
Children The offender had children                                                                          62.5
Divorced/Separated The offender had previously been married or cohabited              43.8
Employee The offender was an employee at the time of the                                      31.3
interrogation
Unemployed The offender was unemployed at the time of the                                   31.3
interrogation
Relationship The offender lived in a relationship                                                        31.3
Immigrant The offender was a foreigner, refugee, or immigrant                                   25.0
Married The offender was married or cohabited                                                          25.0
Prison The offender had been in prison                                                                      12.5
Alone The offender lived alone                                                                                  12.5
NoHome The offender had no home of his own                                                          12.5
Student The offender was a student, pupil or conscript                                                 6.3
Retired The offender was on old-age pension                                                               6.3
Homeless The offender had no accommodation at the time of the                                  6.3
interrogation
Roommate The offender lived together with a roommate/roommates                              6.3
Parents The offender lived with his parents                                                                  6.3
Rent The offender lived in a rented apartment                                                              6.3
Corners The offender used somebody else’s home as                                                    6.3
accommodation
aCharacteristic counted as present for the offender if present in at least one of the crime incidents in a series.

A Finnish study

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.26/epdf

[bobthebuilder]

I am surprised by the restaurant data !

Table 5. Victim characteristics

Variable name Variable label % of victimse

VicRestaurant        Shortly before the attack, the victim left from a restaurant                                     60.5
Join Voluntarily*    The victim voluntarily joined the offender                                                              60.5
VicDrunk*             The victim was drunk during the attack                                                                 55.8
VicResistance        The victim had aggressively resisted the offender                                                   53.5
VicEmployee         The victim was an employee                                                                                 34.9
VicMemory            The victim cannot remember some aspects of the attack                                        32.6
VicStudent            The victim was a student/pupil/conscript                                                               27.9
TakeHome            The victim took the offender to her home                                                              20.9
VicChildren           The victim had children                                                                                        18.6
VicRetired             The victim was retired                                                                                         16.3
VicUnemployed     The victim was unemployed                                                                                   9.3
PreviousRape        The victim had previously been a victim of (attempted)                                           7
rape
BroughtHome       The offender came with somebody else to the victims                                             4.7
home
Vic . . . condom    The victim had given a condom to the offender                                                      4.7
Unconscious         The victim was unconscious during the attack                                                        2.3
DomesticViolence The victim had previously been a victim of domestic                                               2.3

Same Finnish study

[bobthebuilder]

Lots of mixed data here from a swedish study.

Distance Traveled by Rapists to Commit Crime

According to Brantingham and Brantingham (1993), offenders seek out places to offend where they feel comfortable and that fits with their mental template of what constitutes an appropriate crime site. “An offender searches for a ‘suitable target’, whether some object or some person, positioned in time and space in a ‘good’ crime site and situation” (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1993, p. 5). Furthermore, according to these authors, the search process for a suitable target is not random, but involves looking for targets along the criminal’s usual travel paths such as to/from the residence, work, school, or leisure activities. Studies on rape that have examined the distance
traveled by offenders from their residence to commit crime have found that rapists tend to travel rather short average distances: 1.84 km (Santtila, Laukkanen,
Zappala, & Bosco, 2008); 2.44 km (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007); 2.5 km (1.53 miles; Canter & Larkin, 1993); 4.0 km (2.5 miles; LeBeau, 1987b; 5.1 km (3.14 miles; Warren, Reboussin, Hazelwood, Cummings, Gibbs, & Trumbetta, 1998). Some studies have examined the relationship between different offender characteristics and the distance traveled to offend. For example, older rapists have been found to travel farther than younger rapists, and “white” rapists tend to travel farther than offenders
from other ethnic groups (Canter & Gregory, 1994; Davies, 1997; Warren et al., 1998). However, as has been pointed out by Beauregard, Proulx, and Rossmo (2005), surprisingly few studies have examined the relationship between sex offenders’ crime scene behavior and the distance traveled to offend (p. 600).

The few studies that have examined a relationship between offenders’ behavior and distance traveled to offend have found that some crime scene behaviors are related to rapists traveling longer distances. For example, LeBeau (1987b) found that the rapists’ method of approach (illegal entry, kidnap-attack, accept ride, meet outdoors, public building, or meet at a party/ bar) was related to the distance traveled to offend. Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, and Bosco, (2008) found that crime scene behaviors that involved planning (e.g., stealing from the victim or using a disguise), using weapons such as a gun, belt or scissors, and making verbal threats were significantly
related to the offender traveling longer distances. Warren et al. (1998) found 21 that rapists who used bindings or restraints in the offense tended to travel farther than offenders who did not, and offenders who burglarized their victims tended to travel farther than offenders who did not. Canter and Gregory (1994) found that offenders who attacked their victim outdoors traveled approximately  2.7 times as far to offend than offenders who committed their crime indoors. In addition, although not significant, trends of the data showed that offenders who committed their crimes during the weekend tended to travel farther (average minimum distance was 2.5 times greater) than
offenders who committed their crime during the week. On the other hand, crime scene features such as the crime occurring at night, and the offender kissing the victim, have been found to be significantly related to the rapists traveling shorter distances (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007).

www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:618687/FULLTEXT02.pdf

[sophierose]

Jun 3, 2016 14:29:19 GMT bobthebuilder said:

I am surprised by the restaurant data !

Table 5. Victim characteristics

Variable name Variable label % of victimse

VicRestaurant        Shortly before the attack, the victim left from a restaurant                                     60.5
Join Voluntarily*    The victim voluntarily joined the offender                                                              60.5
VicDrunk*             The victim was drunk during the attack                                                                 55.8
VicResistance        The victim had aggressively resisted the offender                                                   53.5
VicEmployee         The victim was an employee                                                                                 34.9
VicMemory            The victim cannot remember some aspects of the attack                                        32.6
VicStudent            The victim was a student/pupil/conscript                                                               27.9
TakeHome            The victim took the offender to her home                                                              20.9
VicChildren           The victim had children                                                                                        18.6
VicRetired             The victim was retired                                                                                         16.3
VicUnemployed     The victim was unemployed                                                                                   9.3
PreviousRape        The victim had previously been a victim of (attempted)                                           7
rape
BroughtHome       The offender came with somebody else to the victims                                             4.7
home
Vic . . . condom    The victim had given a condom to the offender                                                      4.7
Unconscious         The victim was unconscious during the attack                                                        2.3
DomesticViolence The victim had previously been a victim of domestic                                               2.3

Same Finnish study

I am unable to open your link, very useful information, thank you for posting it. to clarify, this data is on stranger rapes in general, not necessarily serial rapes? And this data if it is on stranger rapes excludes date/acquaintance rape? Asking because I, too, was suprised by the restaraunt numbers, and I immediately wondered if it was because the attacker had perhaps been in a out to dinner/first date situation.

[bobthebuilder]

Jun 3, 2016 14:52:30 GMT sophierose said:

Jun 3, 2016 14:29:19 GMT bobthebuilder said:

I am surprised by the restaurant data !

Table 5. Victim characteristics

Variable name Variable label % of victimse

VicRestaurant        Shortly before the attack, the victim left from a restaurant                                     60.5
Join Voluntarily*    The victim voluntarily joined the offender                                                              60.5
VicDrunk*             The victim was drunk during the attack                                                                 55.8
VicResistance        The victim had aggressively resisted the offender                                                   53.5
VicEmployee         The victim was an employee                                                                                 34.9
VicMemory            The victim cannot remember some aspects of the attack                                        32.6
VicStudent            The victim was a student/pupil/conscript                                                               27.9
TakeHome            The victim took the offender to her home                                                              20.9
VicChildren           The victim had children                                                                                        18.6
VicRetired             The victim was retired                                                                                         16.3
VicUnemployed     The victim was unemployed                                                                                   9.3
PreviousRape        The victim had previously been a victim of (attempted)                                           7
rape
BroughtHome       The offender came with somebody else to the victims                                             4.7
home
Vic . . . condom    The victim had given a condom to the offender                                                      4.7
Unconscious         The victim was unconscious during the attack                                                        2.3
DomesticViolence The victim had previously been a victim of domestic                                               2.3

Same Finnish study

I am unable to open your link, very useful information, thank you for posting it. to clarify, this data is on stranger rapes in general, not necessarily serial rapes? And this data if it is on stranger rapes excludes date/acquaintance rape? Asking because I, too, was suprised by the restaraunt numbers, and I immediately wondered if it was because the attacker had perhaps been in a out to dinner/first date situation.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.26/abstract try attached, yes it is stranger rapes, therefore you could be correct in that they had been at a restaurant with the victim.

[sophierose]

Jun 3, 2016 14:59:41 GMT bobthebuilder said:

Jun 3, 2016 14:52:30 GMT sophierose said:

I am unable to open your link, very useful information, thank you for posting it. to clarify, this data is on stranger rapes in general, not necessarily serial rapes? And this data if it is on stranger rapes excludes date/acquaintance rape? Asking because I, too, was suprised by the restaraunt numbers, and I immediately wondered if it was because the attacker had perhaps been in a out to dinner/first date situation.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.26/abstract try attached, yes it is stranger rapes, therefore you could be correct in that they had been at a restaurant with the victim.

Also interesting that the exact same percentage that "voluntary joined" were at a restaraunt prior. I'm struggling to think of what this means? Invited a stranger into their home/car/went in a strangers/home/car/etc? Seems like a very high number.... as a woman it is not a situation I would join in willingly, being alone (most likely) with a stranger... Not that it is in any way the victims fault, im just perplexed. Am I misinterpreting?

[bobthebuilder]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBz61lCg9z4

Interesting video which I would suggest supports a home location of Carmichael (or I still wouldn't rule out Rancho Cadova)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu21OyKl6k4

www.youtube.com/watch?v=32X2GArKArM

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zzO2tTARBY

[newbie]

In Texas City,TX there was another brazen an arrogant serial rapist named Chad Price who attacked a couple and two women together. It is profiled on the Forensic Files episode Unmasked look it up. One of the investigators says most perpetrators in sexual assault cases don't want a witness present, but yet he was brazen enough to do that. I see that same kind of brazenness and arrogance with EAR

[almagata]

Jun 3, 2016 19:16:16 GMT bobthebuilder said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBz61lCg9z4

Interesting video which I would suggest supports a home location of Carmichael (or I still wouldn't rule out Rancho Cadova)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu21OyKl6k4

www.youtube.com/watch?v=32X2GArKArM

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zzO2tTARBY

David Canter is a very interesting guy.  It would be wonderful if he could study EARONS and provide some insight. 

Thanks for posting these videos. 

[almagata]

Jun 3, 2016 19:16:16 GMT bobthebuilder said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBz61lCg9z4

Interesting video which I would suggest supports a home location of Carmichael (or I still wouldn't rule out Rancho Cadova)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu21OyKl6k4

www.youtube.com/watch?v=32X2GArKArM

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zzO2tTARBY

This is a table from another study on marauder vs. commuter crime patterns that David Canter discuses in one of the videos.  Statistically EAR was likely  was a marauder. 

Attachments:

[sammyt]

Jun 4, 2016 7:44:41 GMT almagata said:

Jun 3, 2016 19:16:16 GMT bobthebuilder said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBz61lCg9z4

Interesting video which I would suggest supports a home location of Carmichael (or I still wouldn't rule out Rancho Cadova)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu21OyKl6k4

www.youtube.com/watch?v=32X2GArKArM

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zzO2tTARBY

David Canter is a very interesting guy.  It would be wonderful if he could study EARONS and provide some insight. 

Thanks for posting these videos. 

I have some issues with Canter's lofty reputation.

He is famous for his John Duffy profile, but why did he fail to predict that Duffy had an accomplice (the police knew there were two rapists)?

I may be mistaken, but I thought profilers were given crime scene photos and witness statements, so can't see how Canter failed to mention this.

Either the police were holding things back from Canter (which doesn't make sense as they asked him in to help) or Canter works with the bare minimum of information when compiling his profiles (I can't imagine he would refuse to see victim statements but who knows) or Canter was working in cahoots with the police to not create a public panic by declaring a team of rapists were on the loose.

IMO the police endangered public safety far more by acting as if there was a lone offender, and as such I have my suspicions about Canter's integrity.

He has a website if anyone is interested in seeing if Canter is willing to look at the EAR case - IMO he won't touch this case with a barge pole though anyway...

[Any of N]

Jun 4, 2016 8:32:05 GMT almagata said:

Jun 3, 2016 19:16:16 GMT bobthebuilder said:

This is a table from another study on marauder vs. commuter crime patterns that David Canter discuses in one of the videos.  Statistically EAR was likely  was a marauder. 

If I'm reading the table correctly, for sexual crimes the offender followed the marauder model 93% of the time.  That sounds eye-poppingly impressive, so I looked up the paper on Google Scholar.  Here is the bit about where the sample came from (NSW = New South Wales).

The database of the NSW Police Service does not use the terminology ‘rape’, rather crimes of a serious sexual nature are categorised as ‘sexual offences’ therefore this terminology will be used throughout the present study. The sample of 32 serial sexual offenders consisted of 30 males and two females who had committed a combined total of 88 offences. The average number of crimes per series was approximately three (M = 2.75, SD = 0.92), with a minimum of two offences and a maximum of six. The sex offenders ranged between 12 and 67 years in age, with a mean age of 32.5, (SD = 14.60). Four of the sexual offenders were juveniles, 26 of the total sex offenders were reported as having a Caucasian racial background and six were Indigenous. Eleven offenders had been intoxicated at the time of the offences and 16 of the sex offenders had committed their sexual assaults in Armidale and the Tamworth area whilst the other 16 were in located in Gosford.

Meaney, Rebecca. "Commuters and marauders: An examination of the spatial behaviour of serial criminals." Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 1.2 (2004): 121-137. Link.

Who knows how well the stats generalize to the EAR-ONS, who was a young male rapist who committed over 30 full-blown rapes. The actual sample size that is more like him will be even smaller than 32, which is small to begin with.

I intend this as friendly debate and am not attacking you, almagata.  I'm neutral as to whether the EAR-ONS was a commuter or a marauder.

Great thread.  Enjoying the discussion and the research citations.

[Drifter]

Profile is too generalized to have any value to the EAR case. What the profile actually does is to pigeonhole one's perception of the EAR into the typical generic stereotype. It solidifies our own bias that the EAR was just another generic criminal, not much different than every other generic criminal.

These kinds of aggregate studies and profiles, which have nothing to do with the EAR, hurt our investigation more than they help.

Drifter

[bobthebuilder]

Jun 4, 2016 20:19:33 GMT Any of N said:

Jun 4, 2016 8:32:05 GMT almagata said:

This is a table from another study on marauder vs. commuter crime patterns that David Canter discuses in one of the videos.  Statistically EAR was likely  was a marauder. 

If I'm reading the table correctly, for sexual crimes the offender followed the marauder model 93% of the time.  That sounds eye-poppingly impressive, so I looked up the paper on Google Scholar.  Here is the bit about where the sample came from (NSW = New South Wales).

The database of the NSW Police Service does not use the terminology ‘rape’, rather crimes of a serious sexual nature are categorised as ‘sexual offences’ therefore this terminology will be used throughout the present study. The sample of 32 serial sexual offenders consisted of 30 males and two females who had committed a combined total of 88 offences. The average number of crimes per series was approximately three (M = 2.75, SD = 0.92), with a minimum of two offences and a maximum of six. The sex offenders ranged between 12 and 67 years in age, with a mean age of 32.5, (SD = 14.60). Four of the sexual offenders were juveniles, 26 of the total sex offenders were reported as having a Caucasian racial background and six were Indigenous. Eleven offenders had been intoxicated at the time of the offences and 16 of the sex offenders had committed their sexual assaults in Armidale and the Tamworth area whilst the other 16 were in located in Gosford.

Meaney, Rebecca. "Commuters and marauders: An examination of the spatial behaviour of serial criminals." Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 1.2 (2004): 121-137. Link.

Who knows how well the stats generalize to the EAR-ONS, who was a young male rapist who committed over 30 full-blown rapes. The actual sample size that is more like him will be even smaller than 32, which is small to begin with.

I intend this as friendly debate and am not attacking you, almagata.  I'm neutral as to whether the EAR-ONS was a commuter or a marauder.

Great thread.  Enjoying the discussion and the research citations.

Hi Any of N,

As always I am up for developing my knowledge, though debate and analysis. I still have to go through much of the information here and go back over the data on the EAR outside Sacramento.

I was principally interested in his likely location in Sacramento as that location I think is the best chance of catching our perpetrator. His offending profile there indicates a marauder (IMHO) with his base in Carmichael (or at a stretch Rancho Cordova). I don't think he was travelling into Sacramento. Its too early in his spree for him to do this IMHO. 

The studies seem to indicate that travellers have a tighter spacial grouping of victims, and later, we see much narrower distance between his hits, hence I think he was commuting. It appears we may have a marauder who realises the scale and frequency of his offending is going to get him caught and changes to a traveller profile. I also think he is becoming more mature in his non offending life by the time he decides to travel and therefore perhaps his work is taking him to new places, perhaps lending to a more traveller profile.

In Stockton he hits north, pretty close together near the 5, indicating to me he is heading back North (most likely to Sacramento), he avoids the city centre the same as he avoids it in Sacramento. One hit is near a school, naval comms base, golf course, and walking/runnning track, the other has a creek near by. I agree with QUESTER I think the second attack is a substitute.

In Modesto all three strikes are only a few streets away. All strikes are north of the city indicating he is heading north again, avoiding the centre. Back to Sac.

The clustering in Davis is almost remarkable, next to the University campus, with trails all over the area.

Thus I think we have a Sacramento base for a marauder (most likely Carmichael) and a developing traveller profile as we move to Stockton, Modesto and Davis.