Post by Drifter on Dec 2, 2014 5:43:05 GMT
Topic: October 13, 1978 - Victim #39
Poster: Arch
The EAR attacked his 39th victim 33 years ago today. It was the 2nd attack in Contra Costa County occurring 6 days after his first attack in Concord. I would like to know why he stopped attacking victims in Concord. Was it because the CCC investigators were more thorough in their canvassing and they unknowingly encountered the EAR?
His next attack in Contra Costa County will be two weeks from now, in San Ramon. After he was seen in the backyard of a witness in San Ramon (and it was confirmed that the EAR was in San Ramon) no more attacks in San Ramon.
This is why he left Sacramento. There was a witness who saw him on the Sacramento River levee. There was a witness who could ID him in San Ramon. That seems to be his reason for leaving an area for good.
Response from conquistador1521
EAST BAY ATTACKS
We must remember when EAR attacked in the Bay Area he hit all over. There were no tight clusters of attacks like you saw in Rancho Cordova. IMO it is unlikely that he had a connection to these areas like he did in Rancho Cordova.
Response from Sandia
To Arch re. San Ramon
I understand one of the sketches is from San Ramon, the one with the darker, longer, curlier hair. Is that correct? and if so is that sketch from the woman who saw him in her back yard?
Response from Arch
Sandia,
Unfortunately, the composite sketch from San Ramon did not come from the witness who saw the EAR in her backyard, during the day, without a ski mask on. It came from a witness who saw a suspicious person in the area. This person was later identified and determined not to be the EAR.
Response from Arch
C1521,
He did hit in clusters. He just abandoned the clusters once he was seen in those areas. The Concord attacks were very near each other. The San Jose attacks were very near each other. I believe this is the case with the Danville and Walnut Creek attacks. He continued his clusters in Goleta and Irvine.
The real question is why did he abandoned his clusters? It seems like once he was seen without his ski mask on (and could later be identified by a witness), he moved on, never to return.
Response from Sandia
Thank you Arch. I always thought that sketch looked very different from the rest. Have any other sketches that have been posted on this board been eliminated?
Also, about your theory that he abandoned the clusters once he had been clearly seen and vulnerable to being id'd if caught, I think you are right on. It fits his past history, as you said, and simply makes sense to me. Therefore, can you tell which sketches would coincide with these spottings that caused him to move on? It seems those would be the sketches to focus on.
Response from conquistador1521
Some of the Rancho Cordova attacks were practically on top of each other. You can barely throw a rock in RC and not hit a crime scene. These attacks were not only closely clustered but they were sustained for several years. If you add the confirmed EAR crimes and the probable EAR crimes in RC I believe the evidence is very compelling.
Is it likely in 1975 or 1976 EAR beleived that his crimes would be front page news and the subject of the most intensive manhunt in Sacramento history? I dont think so. The EMR crimes were barely reported. But by 1978 EAR knew he was being carefully watched and changed his strategy accordingly.
Hopefully when your website is updated later this year I hope that the confirmed and probable attacks will be reflected on the map. I think people will realize why I believe the that any potential POI with a RC background should be put on top of the list.
Response from Arch
Sandia,
I'll post which sketches are definitely not the EAR later when I get some time.
Response from Arch
Composite Sketches Eliminated
Sandia,
As usual, nothing is simple with this case. Of the witness sightings of the person who most likely was the EAR, no one in LE bothered getting a composite sketch from the witness. The sightings where there is high confidence was in Carmichael (Del Dayo) on 10/17/76, on the Sacramento levee on 4/14/78 and in San Ramon on Nov. 1, 1978. In each of these cases, a composite sketch was not created. I have no explanation as to why.
Every other sketch was of a suspicious person seen in the area of the attack sometimes days before the attack. So the confidence is low that any of the suspicious persons seen are the EAR. Some of the composite sketches can be eliminated as being the EAR.
This sketch, which I refer to as the "Michael Bolton" sketch (many thanks SOE), can be eliminated as being of the EAR. It came from a 261 one that had none of the EAR's M.O./Signature. Additionally, the suspect was not wearing a ski mask during the commission of the crime. That's not EAR.
EAR_LongHair
This sketch below most likely is not of the EAR. This suspect is too young to be the EAR, IMO. There is a small chance that I am wrong on this. This is definitely of a prowler seen on at least two occasions.
Young EAR
The San Ramon sketch below is of a suspicious person who was later identified and cleared of any involvement. I thought this came from the witness who saw the EAR in her backyard. Unfortunately, it did not. The San Ramon PD was too busy trying to convince this witness that she saw a teenager in the area and that is why no sketch exists of the person she saw who most likely was the EAR.
San Ramon Composite Sketch
The enhanced Maggiore composite below released 4/16/78 is not of the Maggiore's shooter and therefore cannot be of the EAR (if the EAR committed the murders).
Enhanced Composite Sketch
As of now, there is no composite sketch that can be considered with high confidence to be the EAR. There is a 1976 sketch that resembles the 1977 sketch below. I do not have enough infomation about the 1976 sketch but the 1977 sketch seen below is of a person seen in the area of the #24 EAR attack on 10/1/77.
Suspicious Person 1977
It is possible that the 1977 sketch is the EAR because he may have been emboldened by the phony artist's conception released on 5/17/77. Also, there is a resemblance to the Maggiore sketch seen below released on 2/16/77. It may be of the same person, or the resemblance could have been enough to make the EAR avoid Rancho Cordova.
Maggiore/EAR
Response from Arch
Arch
If you do not believe that a composite is the EAR then why is that composite on your website? Please let me know if I am not reading the above post correctly.
Response from Junkhead
Re: October 13, 1978 - Victim #39
Does this board have a "sticky" feature like other message boards? It would be nice for all this good information coming out to be stuck to the top and not fall off the page. We could have a huge thread of "known case facts" then we could spend more time discussing and less time clearing things up.
Response from SpeakelofEngrish
I've wondered the same. I don't think this forum platform does, unfortunately, but it would certainly be very welcome.
Response from SammyT
Thanks for the composite info Arch
I have a good feeling about the way things are moving lately - although it is true that this board is not the easiest to navigate.
The zodiackiller message board is a fine example of how a case should be presented online - I wish that I had the skills to create a more user-friendly board for this tragic case.
I still cannot believe that LE failed to get a sketch from ALL THREE of the witnesses who actually saw EAR-ONS!!
It also almost defies belief that 1970s California was releasing serial rapists from jail after a few years, yet LE did not bother to investigate known sexual offenders!!!
IMHO when solved, the EAR-ONS case will ultimately become known in true-crime circles as 'THE CASE' and we will all look back at the many missed opportunities and seemingly moronic approach of LE.
Response from Sandia
Arch, thanks and another question about the sketches
Thank you Arch for clearing up the sketch situation. There previously was put up on the board all of the sketches. There were 5 little sketches posted side by side that I think looked quite similar. I am not sure if you know which ones I am referring to. If not, I will try to find them. I was wondering where they were from and if they were different versions of the same incident or from different incidents. They all look rather similar to the one above (which I refer to the dreamy eyed one, or the one with the vague look in the eyes, the one you thinks probably was too young.) They all had the exact same hair style and all appeared to be blond. One of them was wearing a plaid shirt and had a squarer face and a more evil glint in the eyes. Anyway do you have any info on those can you share. Thanks again Arch for all you do.
Response from Arch
Because I haven't updated the website as you well know. And one or more of them may well be the EAR. When I update the website, ALL of the composites will be posted with my OPINION about each of them. Because the deficiencies in the investigation, we cannot say with any certitude that any of the composites are or are not the EAR.
The only composite that is actually of the perpetrator is the first Visalia Ransacker composite. If the Ransacker is also the EAR/ONS (which we cannot say with any certitude) than he looked like a fatboy in Dec. of 1975.
That, unfortunately, is as good as it gets. As mentioned, all of the other opportunities to get an accurate composite of the EAR were inexplicalby missed.
Response from Arch
There are many more composite sketches of "suspicious persons" seen prowling in areas frequented by the EAR. Some I do not have enough background information on and others have not been ok'd for release. Those that have been ok'd for release will be posted on the updated website.
Response from guessting
Hi..found another composite today. It should be up tomorrow with the details surrounding it's origination.
Poster: Arch
The EAR attacked his 39th victim 33 years ago today. It was the 2nd attack in Contra Costa County occurring 6 days after his first attack in Concord. I would like to know why he stopped attacking victims in Concord. Was it because the CCC investigators were more thorough in their canvassing and they unknowingly encountered the EAR?
His next attack in Contra Costa County will be two weeks from now, in San Ramon. After he was seen in the backyard of a witness in San Ramon (and it was confirmed that the EAR was in San Ramon) no more attacks in San Ramon.
This is why he left Sacramento. There was a witness who saw him on the Sacramento River levee. There was a witness who could ID him in San Ramon. That seems to be his reason for leaving an area for good.
Response from conquistador1521
EAST BAY ATTACKS
We must remember when EAR attacked in the Bay Area he hit all over. There were no tight clusters of attacks like you saw in Rancho Cordova. IMO it is unlikely that he had a connection to these areas like he did in Rancho Cordova.
Response from Sandia
To Arch re. San Ramon
I understand one of the sketches is from San Ramon, the one with the darker, longer, curlier hair. Is that correct? and if so is that sketch from the woman who saw him in her back yard?
Response from Arch
Sandia,
Unfortunately, the composite sketch from San Ramon did not come from the witness who saw the EAR in her backyard, during the day, without a ski mask on. It came from a witness who saw a suspicious person in the area. This person was later identified and determined not to be the EAR.
Response from Arch
C1521,
He did hit in clusters. He just abandoned the clusters once he was seen in those areas. The Concord attacks were very near each other. The San Jose attacks were very near each other. I believe this is the case with the Danville and Walnut Creek attacks. He continued his clusters in Goleta and Irvine.
The real question is why did he abandoned his clusters? It seems like once he was seen without his ski mask on (and could later be identified by a witness), he moved on, never to return.
Response from Sandia
Thank you Arch. I always thought that sketch looked very different from the rest. Have any other sketches that have been posted on this board been eliminated?
Also, about your theory that he abandoned the clusters once he had been clearly seen and vulnerable to being id'd if caught, I think you are right on. It fits his past history, as you said, and simply makes sense to me. Therefore, can you tell which sketches would coincide with these spottings that caused him to move on? It seems those would be the sketches to focus on.
Response from conquistador1521
Some of the Rancho Cordova attacks were practically on top of each other. You can barely throw a rock in RC and not hit a crime scene. These attacks were not only closely clustered but they were sustained for several years. If you add the confirmed EAR crimes and the probable EAR crimes in RC I believe the evidence is very compelling.
Is it likely in 1975 or 1976 EAR beleived that his crimes would be front page news and the subject of the most intensive manhunt in Sacramento history? I dont think so. The EMR crimes were barely reported. But by 1978 EAR knew he was being carefully watched and changed his strategy accordingly.
Hopefully when your website is updated later this year I hope that the confirmed and probable attacks will be reflected on the map. I think people will realize why I believe the that any potential POI with a RC background should be put on top of the list.
Response from Arch
Sandia,
I'll post which sketches are definitely not the EAR later when I get some time.
Response from Arch
Composite Sketches Eliminated
Sandia,
As usual, nothing is simple with this case. Of the witness sightings of the person who most likely was the EAR, no one in LE bothered getting a composite sketch from the witness. The sightings where there is high confidence was in Carmichael (Del Dayo) on 10/17/76, on the Sacramento levee on 4/14/78 and in San Ramon on Nov. 1, 1978. In each of these cases, a composite sketch was not created. I have no explanation as to why.
Every other sketch was of a suspicious person seen in the area of the attack sometimes days before the attack. So the confidence is low that any of the suspicious persons seen are the EAR. Some of the composite sketches can be eliminated as being the EAR.
This sketch, which I refer to as the "Michael Bolton" sketch (many thanks SOE), can be eliminated as being of the EAR. It came from a 261 one that had none of the EAR's M.O./Signature. Additionally, the suspect was not wearing a ski mask during the commission of the crime. That's not EAR.
EAR_LongHair
This sketch below most likely is not of the EAR. This suspect is too young to be the EAR, IMO. There is a small chance that I am wrong on this. This is definitely of a prowler seen on at least two occasions.
Young EAR
The San Ramon sketch below is of a suspicious person who was later identified and cleared of any involvement. I thought this came from the witness who saw the EAR in her backyard. Unfortunately, it did not. The San Ramon PD was too busy trying to convince this witness that she saw a teenager in the area and that is why no sketch exists of the person she saw who most likely was the EAR.
San Ramon Composite Sketch
The enhanced Maggiore composite below released 4/16/78 is not of the Maggiore's shooter and therefore cannot be of the EAR (if the EAR committed the murders).
Enhanced Composite Sketch
As of now, there is no composite sketch that can be considered with high confidence to be the EAR. There is a 1976 sketch that resembles the 1977 sketch below. I do not have enough infomation about the 1976 sketch but the 1977 sketch seen below is of a person seen in the area of the #24 EAR attack on 10/1/77.
Suspicious Person 1977
It is possible that the 1977 sketch is the EAR because he may have been emboldened by the phony artist's conception released on 5/17/77. Also, there is a resemblance to the Maggiore sketch seen below released on 2/16/77. It may be of the same person, or the resemblance could have been enough to make the EAR avoid Rancho Cordova.
Maggiore/EAR
Response from Arch
Arch
If you do not believe that a composite is the EAR then why is that composite on your website? Please let me know if I am not reading the above post correctly.
Response from Junkhead
Re: October 13, 1978 - Victim #39
Does this board have a "sticky" feature like other message boards? It would be nice for all this good information coming out to be stuck to the top and not fall off the page. We could have a huge thread of "known case facts" then we could spend more time discussing and less time clearing things up.
Response from SpeakelofEngrish
I've wondered the same. I don't think this forum platform does, unfortunately, but it would certainly be very welcome.
Response from SammyT
Thanks for the composite info Arch
I have a good feeling about the way things are moving lately - although it is true that this board is not the easiest to navigate.
The zodiackiller message board is a fine example of how a case should be presented online - I wish that I had the skills to create a more user-friendly board for this tragic case.
I still cannot believe that LE failed to get a sketch from ALL THREE of the witnesses who actually saw EAR-ONS!!
It also almost defies belief that 1970s California was releasing serial rapists from jail after a few years, yet LE did not bother to investigate known sexual offenders!!!
IMHO when solved, the EAR-ONS case will ultimately become known in true-crime circles as 'THE CASE' and we will all look back at the many missed opportunities and seemingly moronic approach of LE.
Response from Sandia
Arch, thanks and another question about the sketches
Thank you Arch for clearing up the sketch situation. There previously was put up on the board all of the sketches. There were 5 little sketches posted side by side that I think looked quite similar. I am not sure if you know which ones I am referring to. If not, I will try to find them. I was wondering where they were from and if they were different versions of the same incident or from different incidents. They all look rather similar to the one above (which I refer to the dreamy eyed one, or the one with the vague look in the eyes, the one you thinks probably was too young.) They all had the exact same hair style and all appeared to be blond. One of them was wearing a plaid shirt and had a squarer face and a more evil glint in the eyes. Anyway do you have any info on those can you share. Thanks again Arch for all you do.
Response from Arch
Because I haven't updated the website as you well know. And one or more of them may well be the EAR. When I update the website, ALL of the composites will be posted with my OPINION about each of them. Because the deficiencies in the investigation, we cannot say with any certitude that any of the composites are or are not the EAR.
The only composite that is actually of the perpetrator is the first Visalia Ransacker composite. If the Ransacker is also the EAR/ONS (which we cannot say with any certitude) than he looked like a fatboy in Dec. of 1975.
That, unfortunately, is as good as it gets. As mentioned, all of the other opportunities to get an accurate composite of the EAR were inexplicalby missed.
Response from Arch
There are many more composite sketches of "suspicious persons" seen prowling in areas frequented by the EAR. Some I do not have enough background information on and others have not been ok'd for release. Those that have been ok'd for release will be posted on the updated website.
Response from guessting
Hi..found another composite today. It should be up tomorrow with the details surrounding it's origination.