Post by Drifter on Dec 4, 2014 5:41:04 GMT
Contra Costa County Con Artist
In the confirmed EAR attacks in Sacramento and the surrounding areas 27% were Saturdays.
In the confirmed EAR attacks in the Bay Area 54% were Saturdays.
In fact attacks #38,#40,#41,#42,#43, and #45 were all on Saturdays.
Reasons for attacking in the Bay Area
1. Neutralize Sac LE. Out of sight out of mind, they would devote fewer resources to capturing him.
2. Neutralize Bay Are LE. All their canvassing would be near pointless since he had no connections to these neighborhoods.
3. Convince whoever had suspicions on him in Sac that he had left town. He purposely spoke to the rape victims in the Bay Area to make thm think that he had been following them. Det Crompton believes it. I do not. This offender selected neighborhoods to attack in and would not risk having him or his vehicle seen in broad daylight.
4. After the Sac Union article in Feb 1978 linking him to possible crimes in Visalia he would be too cautious to live in a third separate geographic location as where he committed the crimes.
I believe that he commuted to the Bay Area from Sacramento. The extra commuting time would explain the 100% increase in Saturday attacks.
5. I believe the fact that he did not change MO probably indicates it was a ruse. He had no concerns of being a recent transplant from Sacramento becuase he wasn't. I have come to the conclusion that since EAR/ONS changed MO in So Cal he most likely did relocate down there. (This will please SOE.)
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Edited by conquistador1521, 2 years ago
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By conquistador1521
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Conquistador, I think your theory is a possibility. Do you think he actually never left Sacramento and traveled down to Goleta, Ventura and Orange County but never actually moved?
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By Sandia
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2 years ago
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I Don't Think
I don't think he lived where he offended except perhaps very early on. EAR knew enpugh about police procedure to avoid the obvious. He knew the cops would be going door to door in the victims neighborhoods. I think that when the canvassing etc. was taking place EAR was somewhere else. Blending in. And I still think there's a reason why he offended 15 times in the jurisdiction of the Sac Sheriffs.
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By f1guyus
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
The possibility that the EAR was still living in Sacramento while traveling down to Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Orange counties to offend is out of the question. The only suchlike scenario that should be considered even remotely possible is that, if he never left Sacramento, there was a specific draw—either family or professional—the kept returning him to those areas in Southern CA. But even this is at the outer margins of possibility.
EAR felt a need to stage the Witthuhn scene to make it look like a burglary-gone-awry. Why?
Four years and eleven months elapsed between the penultimate known offense and the last known offense. Why?
The same dog was brought to two separate crime scenes, a half mile from each other, yet over a year and a half apart. Where did it come from? Whose dog was it? Why only those two scenes? The circumstances suggest that the dog was familiar with the perpetrator, and the dog was local to Goleta. Whom did he know in Goleta? And if he knew someone there, what kind of person would be oblivious (or worse, indifferent) to the parallels between their acquaintance/friend/relative's movements and multiple double homicides of a specific type?
I'm growing repetitive at this point, but: the murders of Ms. Witthuhn and Ms. Cruz were not recognizable as part of a series, and not recognizable as being connected to each other nor to anything else (though, if they'd occurred closer together in time, a link may have been made between the two). The EAR understood this. As with the early Sacramento crimes, he waited until each was alone: (a) when Witthuhn's husband was hospitalized overnight, and (b) when Cruz's mother was out of town, and her male companion had gone.
"In the early months, the sexual terrorist attacked women who were home alone, displaying an uncanny ability to find victims whose husbands were out of town for the night."
- The Modesto Bee, June 28, 1981
This recon was the EAR's "knack" at the very beginning, so I feel that it was no lucky accident that Witthuhn and Cruz happened to be alone. If the EAR wished to kill David along with Manuela, he'd have awaited that opportunity.
If the EAR had killed both Witthuhns, that event would have appeared on the radar of whatever parties were investigating or proposing a link among Goleta 1, Offerman/Manning, Lyman/Charlene Smith, and Keith/Patrice Harrington. Because EAR apparently wished to avert this connection being made with both the Cruz and Witthun murders, and both murders were a mile from each other in the same neighborhood, it's reasonable to then conclude that the EAR lived, worked, or had close ties to Irvine, and probably to Northwood. At the very least, Orange County.
And again, DNA profiling did not exist in 1986. The EAR likely would not have been aware of this advance until about 1990, when it really began to gain momentum. Into the 90s, as DNA profiling became standard, the EAR's pants must have slowly filled with liquishit, like they did in Danville. And those dams probably really broke about a decade ago. That's if he was still living. If he hadn't left Orange County by that point, I'd say there's a good chance that he did then, depending upon his family circumstances.
So, bottom line: as far as the EAR was concerned, at the time of perpetrating the Witthuhn and Cruz murders, those crimes would never be linked to any others.
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Edited by SpeakelOfEngrish, 2 years ago
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
I'll again point out the following, with respect to Dennis Rader:
Rader murdered seven people (and caused irreversible damage an eighth) in four separate incidents from 1974 to 1977. Largely thanks to Rader's own anonymous correspondence, these crimes were connected and regarded as a series.
All of these crimes took place in Wichita proper.
Up to 2003, all articles, news reports, and material about the BTK case attributed only these seven homicides to the BTK. The official investigative body of data attributed only these seven murders to BTK.
In 2004, BTK resumed communicating. In his first communication, BTK took credit for an eighth murder previously not considered a BTK crime: that of Vicki Wegerle in 1986.
The manner in which BTK took credit for this crime left no doubt that he was responsible; subsequent DNA sampling confirmed this link.
Wegerle's murder occurred in the same general areas as the previous BTK crimes, and the M.O. was the same.
Two additional murders, that of Marine Hedge in 1985 and that of Dolores Davis in 1991, were also committed by BTK. BTK, however, neither alluded to nor took credit for these murders until he was already captured and identified as Dennis Rader.
The murders of Marine Hedge and Dolores Davis did not occur in the general area of the other BTK crimes. They occurred closer to Rader's home, in his own town of Park City. In fact, Marine Hedge lived four doors down from Rader.
The modus operandi used in Marine Hedge and Dolores Davis homicides was different than that of the other BTK murders. Rader made sure that these murders appeared nothing like known BTK murders. In both cases, he removed the victims from their homes and dumped them some at distance away, in rural areas. In every other BTK strike, including the murder of Vicki Wegerle, the perpetrator left the victims inside their homes.
Rader was his own undoing. Unlike the jurisdictions involved with the EAR/ONS cases, Sedgwick County, KS did not revisit the Wegerle, Hedge, and Davis cases to seek viable DNA. That DNA did exist, however, as it was found after his arrest and used in part to bolster the state's case against Rader.
If Orange County had likewise not sought DNA profiles from the Witthuhn and Cruz murders, and uploaded those profiles into CODIS, we'd never know that the EAR/ONS committed these two murders. And we'd mostly be thinking that he lived in Santa Barbara and either died, moved away, or went to prison some point soon after July 27, 1981.
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Edited by SpeakelOfEngrish, 2 years ago
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
And I totally got away with using "liquishit" in a post.
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
SOE: "The murders of Marine Hedge and Dolores Davis did not occur in the general area of the other BTK crimes. They occurred closer to Rader's home, in his own town of Park City. In fact, Marine Hedge lived four doors down from Rader."
This is why I believe that EAR lived close to Janelle. Radar is not the only serial killer to begin killing close to his house after a prolonged absent. The closeness and time consuming killings are a process of human nature, especially after being on the killing lam.
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Edited by waterfrogger, 2 years ago
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By waterfrogger
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Re: Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Posted By: SpeakelOfEngrish
I'll again point out the following, with respect to Dennis Rader:
Rader murdered seven people (and caused irreversible damage an eighth) in four separate incidents from 1974 to 1977. Largely thanks to Rader's own anonymous correspondence, these crimes were connected and regarded as a series.
All of these crimes took place in Wichita proper.
Up to 2003, all articles, news reports, and material about the BTK case attributed only these seven homicides to the BTK. The official investigative body of data attributed only these seven murders to BTK.
In 2004, BTK resumed communicating. In his first communication, BTK took credit for an eighth murder previously not considered a BTK crime: that of Vicki Wegerle in 1986.
The manner in which BTK took credit for this crime left no doubt that he was responsible; subsequent DNA sampling confirmed this link.
Wegerle's murder occurred in the same general areas as the previous BTK crimes, and the M.O. was the same.
Two additional murders, that of Marine Hedge in 1985 and that of Dolores Davis in 1991, were also committed by BTK. BTK, however, neither alluded to nor took credit for these murders until he was already captured and identified as Dennis Rader.
The murders of Marine Hedge and Dolores Davis did not occur in the general area of the other BTK crimes. They occurred closer to Rader's home, in his own town of Park City. In fact, Marine Hedge lived four doors down from Rader.
The modus operandi used in Marine Hedge and Dolores Davis homicides was different than that of the other BTK murders. Rader made sure that these murders appeared nothing like known BTK murders. In both cases, he removed the victims from their homes and dumped them some at distance away, in rural areas. In every other BTK strike, including the murder of Vicki Wegerle, the perpetrator left the victims inside their homes.
Rader was his own undoing. Unlike the jurisdictions involved with the EAR/ONS cases, Sedgwick County, KS did not revisit the Wegerle, Hedge, and Davis cases to seek viable DNA. That DNA did exist, however, as it was found after his arrest and used in part to bolster the state's case against Rader.
If Orange County had likewise not sought DNA profiles from the Witthuhn and Cruz murders, and uploaded those profiles into CODIS, we'd never know that the EAR/ONS committed these two murders. And we'd mostly be thinking that he lived in Santa Barbara and either died, moved away, or went to prison some point soon after July 27, 1981.
An Interesting and well summarized argument ........I guess the moral of the story is that with offenders like EAR there are probably more skeletons in his closet so to speak, I would suspect maybe he did some crimes especially the period between 1981 and 1986 which have not been linked or may never be linked to him and also considering that Radr and EAR started their infamous activities at a broadly similar time maybe they are similar in age....... ; another thing is Rader offended into the early 90s which got me thinking maybe EAR also did stuff in the late 80s before he got wind of DNA , That 1990/91 phone call suggests our guy was out there in the early 90s at least hence maybe he did something that we dont yet know about I doubt he went from the brutal murder of Janelle to completely law abiding citizen
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By DanCartell
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa con artist
Your argument makes a lot of sense looking at the frequency of Saturday attacks and the areas involved; I would also agree that he probably lived in the Sacramento area when he hit as far afield as the bay area . it makes sense that he started offending elsewere after he whipped up Sacramento into a frenzy so as to give the impression that he was gone and was now some one elses problem. Its quite ironinc that this guy wanted to terrorise (Sacramento) and when he achieved this this inadvertantly led to so much heat it drove him away elsewere. Point number 4 and the publicity fom the Maggiore murders would also explain why he struck in various locations outside Sacramento - this would be the perfect way to get LE run around carrying out investigations all over the place diverting the heat away from Scaramento which suggests that Sacramento was his back yard so to speak. After Sacramento the guy seems to have learned not to soil in his back yard which could possibly explain the pattern of attacks afterwards in other jusridictions. As for whether he still lived in Sacramento when he hit further south in places like Goleta, Ventura and Irvine I would not be inclined to think so............
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By DanCartell
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2 years ago
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Having put it that way..........
....point number 5 makes a lot of sense, brilliant summary and conclusion!
Do you know if the full text of the Sac Union article of Feb 1978 is availabe online?
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By DanCartell
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
I am from the camp that believes that EAR/ONS lived in Sacramento throughout the active years and likely still lives there. He may have resided for short periods in Southern Califotrnia while working, possibly on construction worksites, but his permanent residence was Sac.
I base this on the increased time between attacks the farther away from Sacrmanto they occured. I was not aware of the "Saturday angle", but that would correspond with the perp travelling to the crime scenes. While in Sacramento, he could strike anytime. When in other Northen California locales, he needed longer travel time and Saturdays were the most convient time to offend. Even more so with Southern California - the farther away, the longer the commute and the bigger gaps between crimes.
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By DougFrench
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2 years ago
79 Posts
Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Also, once he got far enough away from home, he may have decided to take the leap to murder, what he may have fantasized about doing for a long time, and felt being far from home was worth the risk of carrying it out. Why Goleta, did he have business in Goleta or family. If business, then that would support the idea that he was far enough from any family connection to risk taking the leap of murdering. If family, that would tie in with the connection to the 3 toed dog and possibly using the dog to throw suspicion elsewhere, -- to Glasby. I personally think he at least knew of Glasby to have used a dog that had a "connection" to Glasby. That was pretty convenient. I vote he had family. In addition there is a real possibility that another crime in Goleta many years earlier, when he may have been a teen, is connected. Did he originate in Goleta? Did he come back on occassion to visit grandma and grandpa, or auntie and uncle and cousins? I suspect he did. I think he had to have had a connection to Glasby --Glasby was patient of Offerman AND Manning, Glasby beat up Offerman's janitor, Glasby had a connection to the 3-toed dog. If Glasby is not EAR/ONS and we know he isn't, EAR/ONS was VERY successful in making LE believe it was Glasby all these years. He had to have known Glasby in my opinion.
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By Sandia
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
The greater length of time between attacks, during the "ONS" phase, is probably because the attacks entailed homicide. He'd not have been as prolific in Sac if he'd been killing his victims; otherwise, he'd have been apprehended rather quickly.
There should be little to no doubt that EAR resided in Southern CA. Multiple circumstances and data strongly support this.
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
I know that we disagree, but one other explaination for "upping the ante" to murder was precisely because it was more difficult to travel to SoCal from Sacramento and he wanted to get a "bigger bang for his buck" since he could not offend as often.
This issue is wxactly why I would like to see a new profile created since we now know that EAR was ONS - each previous profile was created with only half of the picture. Each profile theorizes that the perp resided in the general areas of the crimes and I wonder if now that we know that the two crime sprees were, in fact, one long spree, the profilers still believe that part of the profile.
Of course, there is always the possibility that I am completely wrong. I just toss this out for debate so others can chimne in with their opinions.
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By DougFrench
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2 years ago
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Re: Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Posted By: DougFrench
I am from the camp that believes that EAR/ONS lived in Sacramento throughout the active years and likely still lives there. He may have resided for short periods in Southern Califotrnia while working, possibly on construction worksites, but his permanent residence was Sac.
I base this on the increased time between attacks the farther away from Sacrmanto they occured. I was not aware of the "Saturday angle", but that would correspond with the perp travelling to the crime scenes. While in Sacramento, he could strike anytime. When in other Northen California locales, he needed longer travel time and Saturdays were the most convient time to offend. Even more so with Southern California - the farther away, the longer the commute and the bigger gaps between crimes.
I believe this too. The only thing I do feel certain of is that EAR did live in Sacramento during the EAR attacks. I am not convinced he was a resident in any of the other jurisdictions. He may or may not of been. g
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By guessting
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2 years ago
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Publicity campaign
If I could have my wish, I would wish Santa Barbara LE would launch a huge publicity campaign, newspaper articles, TV news interviews with LE, and Larry Crompton, someone like Colleen Cason writing a series of articles in the Santa Barbara News Press just making the public in Santa Barbara aware of this serial rapist/murderer that has never been caught and that he struck in their community. From what I can tell I really don't think many people in Santa Barbara even know of the killings there and don't know even about EAR/ONS and don't know of the connection to Sacramento. If a lot of noise and a big and extended publicity campaign taking place over the period of at least a week, a month, was mounted, it might get the communities attention. It's somewhat similar to as if the Zodiac struck in Santa Barbara and they don't know it.
I really think something could come of it. For instance some relative that didn't realize there was a Sacramento and Contra Costa County connection might think back and realize that when their weird cousin from Sacramento came to visit is when the murders occurred. I think Santa Barbara would be a good place for this as Sacramento was very aware of EAR but new info could come from Santa Barbara once they realize a connection.
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By Sandia
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2 years ago
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Succinctly, here are some of the key reasons I feel the perp lived in Southern CA:
The Witthuhn scene was staged to look like a burglary, which is atypical behavior for EAR. The reason an offender usually does this is out of fear he'll be the focus of the investigation. Why would that have been the case with this, the first offense in Irvine?
Both Irvine crimes were different enough from all others as to be unlinkable.
Irvine crimes occurred five years apart, yet were under two miles away from each other.
1.5 years elapsed between two Goleta crimes which occurred within walking distance of each other. The same dog was brough to both (but to no other known EAR crime), suggesting a connection of some kind to the area.
Other activity in Goleta suggests the offender was in the area for some time (the entirety of Autumn, 1979).
Activity in Ventura suggests the offender had access to this area for a protracted period of time (of at least a week).
Nothing suggests the offender had access to a vehicle between September 1979 and February 1980 (note: there's good reason to believe the vehicle seen driving through the Avenida Pequena parking lot without its headlights, following the Offerman/Manning incident, was not connected to EAR)
If the offender lived in Sac throughout the early 80s and was commuting, crimes would not have been limited to two distinct Southern CA clusters. In the decade since the DNA links were made, no other homicides in California (between 1979 and 1986) have been linked, by either DNA or M.O., to EAR/ONS, with the exception of the Goleta crimes—which most of us knew were probably linked before it was confirmed. We've had many separate heads sleuthing up a variety of avenues, and I believe each has come up empty-handed in this regard. The best candidates, in my opinion, are the Portsmouth, NH murders of Laura Kempton (1981) and Tammy Little (1982), and the Aurora, CO bludgeon murders of 1984. In both series, there is DNA, which I assume has been nationally compared and does not match EAR's.
And some things to consider, also, with respect to the Contra Costa period:
San Jose, where EAR struck at least twice, is a long way to travel from Sac (over 2 hours by car).
If EAR was commuting as a ruse, why the 3/79 attack in Rancho Cordova?
Logically, there are many possibilities outside of Contra Costa for where the EAR may have lived during this period, if not Sac. Arguments could be made in favor of Alameda County (particularly Berkeley), San Francisco, elsewhere in the Bay Area, Tracy, Fairfield, or elsewhere in Contra Costa (e.g., Antioch or Orinda).
Conquistador's weekend theory is flawed in that it does not take into account other EAR activity in Contra Costa, such as aborted attacks, prowling, and recon.
Though the bulk of EAR's attacks during this period did occur on weekend days, there were several that did not, particularly toward the end of this phase (Thursday, Monday, Monday, and Thursday).
There are other explanations for why the EAR mostly struck on weekends, during this period, that do not incorporate commuting.
The EAR's prolificacy during this period did not seem relative to the distance traveled. I'll discuss this in a forthcoming post.
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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2 years ago
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Contra Costa period - relative prolificacy
There are multiple ways to approach the density of EAR's activity during any particular period. To just look at the timeline, and apply the same recurring window of time to calculate an average, is a flawed approach, because it does not take into an account the gap periods.
There are three gap periods associated with the Contra Costa period (which also makes it difficult to pinpoint when, precisely, he may have moved there, and then away from there, if indeed that was the case):
From 7/6/78 to 10/7/78 (a three-month period of inactivity).
From 12/9/78 to 4/5/79 (a four-month period of inactivity, not significantly altered when you incorporate the 3/20/79 Rancho Cordova attack.
From 4/5/79 (Fremont) to 6/2/79 (Walnut Creek), a two-month period of inactivity.
In my opinion, you'd have to work around these and other inactivity periods in order to correctly calculate and compare prolificacy.
For the two month-period between EAR's first attack in Contra Costa (10/7/78) through the last attack before a four-month hiatus (12/9/78), EAR struck six times in the Bay Area. This averages 3 attacks/month. Compare that to the similar period that followed his Summer 1977 hiatus: from his Stockton attack on 9/6/77, through his aborted Foothill Farms attack on 12/2/77, EAR struck six times during a three-month period, averaging 2 attacks/month. Observing a similar range and time-of-year for 1976, EAR struck six times from 10/5/76 through 12/18/76. This is a 2½-month period. That averages roughly 2.3 attacks/month.
For the one-month period in summer of 1979, EAR struck four times between 6/2/79 and 7/5/79 (his final, and aborted, attack anywhere in Northern CA). This is an average of 4 attacks/month. This is similar to his average of 5 attacks/month during the previous summer's pendulation between Davis and Modesto, and comparable to his most prolific periods of activity in Sacramento. The most prolific one-month period for EAR was May 1977, during which he attacked five times in under a month. October 1976 was also a busy period (four attacks in two weeks).
So, what would seem to thin out Contra Costa prolificacy are three sizeable inactivity periods. Those aside, he was no less prolific in this area than elsewhere. In fact, the summer of 1979 was a busy period, and he did not strike mostly on weekend days at this time.
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Edited by SpeakelOfEngrish, 2 years ago
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
So everyone here is in agreement EAR wasn't some homeless drifter? *sarcasm*
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By ZForce
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2 years ago
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Re: Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Posted By: ZForce
So everyone here is in agreement EAR wasn't some homeless drifter? *sarcasm*
So since at least one person took offense to my comment above, allow me to clarify...it was only alluding to another thread where someone suggested EAR may have been a drifter, which clearly nobody here believes to be involved in this discussion thus far.
As for the content here, it looks like VR/EAR/ONS changed MO/Sig when he moved to throw LE off of his location. This is why he did things like changing the knot in Goleta, as well as escalating the violence. Not likely that he created the crimes to throw LE off of where he was living cuz things were getting too hot. When things got hot this guy moved.
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By ZForce
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2 years ago
500 Posts
Re: Re: Re: Contra Costa County Con Artist
Posted By: ZForce
Posted By: ZForce
So everyone here is in agreement EAR wasn't some homeless drifter? *sarcasm*
So since at least one person took offense to my comment above, allow me to clarify...it was only alluding to another thread where someone suggested EAR may have been a drifter, which clearly nobody here believes to be involved in this discussion thus far.
As for the content here, it looks like VR/EAR/ONS changed MO/Sig when he moved to throw LE off of his location. This is why he did things like changing the knot in Goleta, as well as escalating the violence. Not likely that he created the crimes to throw LE off of where he was living cuz things were getting too hot. When things got hot this guy moved.
Note: it's never been noted that EAR changed the knot in Goleta. A diamond knot was found in the Ventura ligatures, or ligature, and much has been made of this detail since its release (ca. 2002). As far as what's known, the diamond knot, or Chinese decorator knot, is only associated with the Ventura homicides. Whatever knots were used in Goleta, they've not been discussed.
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By SpeakelOfEngrish
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2 years ago
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