How Prolific Serial Rapists Tend to Be Caught

[Any of N]

Mitchell : Good points, and this is helping me think about the case. A few more thoughts.

On the "transformation of the local Peeping Tom into the East Area Rapist"...

I bring up Ronnie Shelton a lot because the book by James Neff provides valuable detail. Shelton evolved organically much like how you describe, going from voyeurism as a kid, to entering homes, to attempted rape as a teenager, to eventual prolific rape as an adult. He was quite stealthy, and during his major crime spree he often drove near his targets in a car or a motorcycle. There was no tactic of parking a long way off and walking a great distance to the neighborhood. The practice of wandering about on foot was not part of his fantasy, even though that's how things started off for him in his early phase. The fantasy element came when he was looking into the homes. Maybe it was different for the EAR, I can agree to that, but it doesn't seem like it necessarily follows.

On the earliest attacks being near his home base...

Another thing I bring up a lot is the EAR hopping the American River on consecutive attacks. Seven times in the first nine. Unless he's walking across a dry riverbed (which we aren't sure was feasible), he's taking a terribly circuitous path with awful logistics: Drive a good way to a bridge, cross the bridge, drive back near to where you started but on the other side of the river, park a few miles away from your target and walk the rest. That might be too much of a bother, even for a guy with monomaniacal focus on his crimes.

On mobility and elusiveness ...

Cars are big and loud, I get it. But speed and mobility make it so you're not in one place for as long of a time. You can't be spotted if you're not there at all.

[Mitchell]

Aug 9, 2017 3:53:52 GMT Any of N said:

Mitchell : Good points, and this is helping me think about the case. A few more thoughts.

On the "transformation of the local Peeping Tom into the East Area Rapist"...

I bring up Ronnie Shelton a lot because the book by James Neff provides valuable detail. Shelton evolved organically much like how you describe, going from voyeurism as a kid, to entering homes, to attempted rape as a teenager, to eventual prolific rape as an adult. He was quite stealthy, and during his major crime spree he often drove near his targets in a car or a motorcycle. There was no tactic of parking a long way off and walking a great distance to the neighborhood. The practice of wandering about on foot was not part of his fantasy, even though that's how things started off for him in his early phase. The fantasy element came when he was looking into the homes. Maybe it was different for the EAR, I can agree to that, but it doesn't seem like it necessarily follows.

On the earliest attacks being near his home base...

Another thing I bring up a lot is the EAR hopping the American River on consecutive attacks. Seven times in the first nine. Unless he's walking across a dry riverbed (which we aren't sure was feasible), he's taking a terribly circuitous path with awful logistics: Drive a good way to a bridge, cross the bridge, drive back near to where you started but on the other side of the river, park a few miles away from your target and walk the rest. That might be too much of a bother, even for a guy with monomaniacal focus on his crimes.

On mobility and elusiveness ...

Cars are big and loud, I get it. But speed and mobility make it so you're not in one place for as long of a time. You can't be spotted if you're not there at all.

I think you and I are in agreement for the most part. Here I tried to take the position which described why the auto was not EAR's achilles heel as it was with so many others. To propose a theory that could explain the absence of reliable and consistent vehicle descriptions.

I think there is a very good chance that EAR was very much of the same mold as Shelton and the comparison is apt. There may be logistical differences to account for but I think the psychology is fundamentally the same.

That being said, I think it more improbable that EAR was frequently swapping vehicles through some external mechanism.

The junk plates do present a quandry.

[Mitchell]

Any of N

What do you make of the salvaged or "junked" license plates? Is it even accurate?

[weiss]

Could he have been stealing cars and covering it up using junk plates he swapped out? Not inconceivable an expert B&E man could also be a competent car thief. But then you would have to account for whether or not there was a history of stolen cars matching the description. Unless he's taking them from long term airport parking then returning them before he hops a flight out of town. Probably unlikely....

[sycamore]

Have you guys checked out Redwins pictures of cars in his family photo album. He has about five that are very similar that were oserverd at the crime scenes
A yellow pick up. a grey pick up, a beige Toyota, a bluey grey VW, a white station wagon Etc Etc.

[Any of N]

Aug 9, 2017 23:18:29 GMT Mitchell said:

Any of N

What do you make of the salvaged or "junked" license plates? Is it even accurate?

Yeah, it could all be a false set of leads. On this issue I rely on those who are better informed than I am. Portofleith has posted about it:

We also need to consider that there were at least 4 or 5 other car sightings [in addition to TOR 505] in which the vehicle was either registered to a dead person or the license plate information did not match the vehicle registration, e.g. junked cars where the license plate supposedly was accounted for through junkyard disposal procedures.

portofleith, Car Stuff thread

She later added another example. There was also a brief discussion about incomplete license plate numbers matching junked plates via random chance. She agreed it was problematic.

So who knows. License plates of suspicious vehicles have been likened to composites based on suspicious men. Possibly unrelated to the EAR. If LE literally ran hundreds of license plates from suspicious vehicles in this case, maybe we shouldn't be surprised that a few came up as illegal. There were many other offenders operating in NorCal at the time. We could be talking coincidence here, much like the medical connections could be coincidence. Or the computer lab connections. Or the pizza restaurant connections. Or the nearby residential construction connections. Or the... you know what I mean.

Some of them might be real, though. Like the plates. 

[Any of N]

Aug 10, 2017 0:47:32 GMT sycamore said:

Have you guys checked out Redwins pictures of cars in his family photo album. He has about five that are very similar that were oserverd at the crime scenes
A yellow pick up. a grey pick up, a beige Toyota, a bluey grey VW, a white station wagon Etc Etc.

Yes. If Silas Boston's apprentice was listed as 5'-10'' instead of 6'-3'' I would be intrigued. Those all sound like generic cars from the 70's, so coincidence is very much in play. Keep in mind that those connections held for Silas Boston himself, and his DNA did not match. Other POI's have checked off a lot of boxes and were not our guy.  It happens. I fully support redwin doing his due diligence, but I'm not getting excited about it.

[Mitchell]

Aug 10, 2017 3:44:59 GMT Any of N said:

Aug 9, 2017 23:18:29 GMT Mitchell said:

Any of N

What do you make of the salvaged or "junked" license plates? Is it even accurate?

Yeah, it could all be a false set of leads. On this issue I rely on those who are better informed than I am. Portofleith has posted about it:

We also need to consider that there were at least 4 or 5 other car sightings [in addition to TOR 505] in which the vehicle was either registered to a dead person or the license plate information did not match the vehicle registration, e.g. junked cars where the license plate supposedly was accounted for through junkyard disposal procedures.

portofleith, Car Stuff thread

She later added another example. There was also a brief discussion about incomplete license plate numbers matching junked plates via random chance. She agreed it was problematic.

So who knows. License plates of suspicious vehicles have been likened to composites based on suspicious men. Possibly unrelated to the EAR. If LE literally ran hundreds of license plates from suspicious vehicles in this case, maybe we shouldn't be surprised that a few came up as illegal. There were many other offenders operating in NorCal at the time. We could be talking coincidence here, much like the medical connections could be coincidence. Or the computer lab connections. Or the pizza restaurant connections. Or the nearby residential construction connections. Or the... you know what I mean.

Some of them might be real, though. Like the plates. 

Quote from the link you provided under another example:

Victim #39 told under hypnosis, of a light colored Toyota Celica that pulled into her driveway the day of the attack. The license number she reported traced back to a 1973 Vega junked at a parts shop in Windsor. I think that makes 5 so far.

I wonder how many of these plates were either transcription errors, remembered incorrectly, recalled under hypnosis, etc...

Taken with your point about the sheer number of plates probably reported during the investigation, and assuming these sightings were actually EAR, this question of plates from junked autos begins to come into focus a bit.

There may be little to this angle, though it shouldn't be dismissed altogether.

[nick]

I have interviewed victims and witnesses of crimes and some swear to the accuracies of the vehicle license plate they claim to have seen even after I explain the plate is not in the system or does not exist in the order they reported it. I have tried moving the digits around and sometimes I got a match but most times nothing. I also had multiple witnesses of a single event come up with two completely different plate numbers and neither of them matched anything in the system. I guess my point is witnesses make mistakes on plates with the system of today is much easier to try to figure out possible other digit combinations it would have been much more difficult in the 1970's and early 1980's.

[nicknonora]

The car question I would ask: does the high number of spotted vehicles, particularly combined with the high number of wardrobe changes, indicate that EARONS had a source of wealth?

[nicknonora]

Also, does anyone know about a man who sold a car to someone matching the description and that car turned up abandoned a month later with a gun and wig in the trunk? I saw that stated on a site I had never visited.

[Mitchell]

Aug 10, 2017 5:52:33 GMT nick said:

I have interviewed victims and witnesses of crimes and some swear to the accuracies of the vehicle license plate they claim to have seen even after I explain the plate is not in the system or does not exist in the order they reported it. I have tried moving the digits around and sometimes I got a match but most times nothing. I also had multiple witnesses of a single event come up with two completely different plate numbers and neither of them matched anything in the system. I guess my point is witnesses make mistakes on plates with the system of today is much easier to try to figure out possible other digit combinations it would have been much more difficult in the 1970's and early 1980's.

Very interesting and noteworthy, Nick. What are your thoughts regarding information obtained from a subject who is under hypnosis? Hard to believe anything of value could be learned through that approach, but I could certainly be wrong.

[nick]

Aug 10, 2017 10:26:05 GMT Mitchell said:

Aug 10, 2017 5:52:33 GMT nick said:

I have interviewed victims and witnesses of crimes and some swear to the accuracies of the vehicle license plate they claim to have seen even after I explain the plate is not in the system or does not exist in the order they reported it. I have tried moving the digits around and sometimes I got a match but most times nothing. I also had multiple witnesses of a single event come up with two completely different plate numbers and neither of them matched anything in the system. I guess my point is witnesses make mistakes on plates with the system of today is much easier to try to figure out possible other digit combinations it would have been much more difficult in the 1970's and early 1980's.

Very interesting and noteworthy, Nick. What are your thoughts regarding information obtained from a subject who is under hypnosis? Hard to believe anything of value could be learned through that approach, but I could certainly be wrong.

I have always questioned hypnosis because I think it lends itself to possible manipulation of the subject. I think there have been proven cases where the subjects were lead directly to the conclusion the hypnotist wanted prior to the start. I have posted my view on a cognitive interview which is a form of helping a subject to recall details but in no way under the spell of hypnosis. I think there is some value to cognitive interviews when performed properly but don't think much in regards to hypnosis.

[Mitchell]

Aug 10, 2017 22:55:11 GMT nick said:

Aug 10, 2017 10:26:05 GMT Mitchell said:

Very interesting and noteworthy, Nick. What are your thoughts regarding information obtained from a subject who is under hypnosis? Hard to believe anything of value could be learned through that approach, but I could certainly be wrong.

I have always questioned hypnosis because I think it lends itself to possible manipulation of the subject. I think there have been proven cases where the subjects were lead directly to the conclusion the hypnotist wanted prior to the start. I have posted my view on a cognitive interview which is a form of helping a subject to recall details but in no way under the spell of hypnosis. I think there is some value to cognitive interviews when performed properly but don't think much in regards to hypnosis.

I think I've seen you mention the cognitive interview before, though I never looked into it until now. This is a quick review.

simplypsychology.org/cognitive-interview.html

Very interesting, and judging by the limited trial that was performed, pretty effective by comparison. Comments and questions abound.

First, a comment:

nick, you brought up leading interview(interrogation) techniques, which when used outside of the realm of the long discredited practice of witness hypnosis, are surely one the standard techniques taught to potential interrogators. Shouldn't the practice of leading the subject be forbidden altogether? Further, I personally think the investigative apparatus should be independent of LE because there is a definite conflict of interest at work. The institution that collects evidence and conducts interviews shouldn't also be the institution that arrests, charges, and prosecutes you. In other words, the institution that controls the evidence and frames the narrative is the same institution that has a vested interest in clearing cases which is a huge conflict of interest.

Three initial questions:

1.) Proponents of hypnosis claim that almost total recall can be achieved years after the fact. How accurate is cognitive interviewing after one day, one week, one month,or even one year later?

2.) Has the veracity of details obtained through cognitive interviewing ever been challenged in court?

3.) Were cognitive interviews ever conducted with any witnesses in the EAR/ONS case?

I'm going to try and find answers to those questions, but if anyone knows off the top of their head, that would work too.

[Any of N]

One of the biggest surprises for me when studying this case is the use of hypnosis by LE back in the 70's. I mean, you've got to be kidding. Maybe Johnny Carson was right: the country is tilted and all the loose marbles roll to California.^* TV cop shows back then didn't even incorporate it into their scripts, like it was it too hokey even for Hollywood.

I can tell you that any cognitive psychologist will quickly acknowledge that memories fade over time, and that an interviewing technique will only help optimize the retrieval for any given point in time. It will not affect the rate of decay.



^* All Proboards members and readers excepted.