The Danville Papers: Big Red Herrings?

[Any of N]

This opinion won't be very popular with people who've spent a lot of time on the lead, but I think I see a familiar pattern. Here's a quick argument that the Danville Papers are merely red herrings.

The following three propositions should be safe bets:

One: The investigation of any unsolved mystery will yield items and data that initially appear to be relevant but in reality are unrelated. Sometimes this illusory/misleading/false evidence will seem quite compelling. This is the inevitable result of random chance.

Two: Typically false evidence is quickly eliminated, but occasionally it will lack sufficient context or identifying information. When compelling false evidence cannot be eliminated, the potential for error is obvious.

Three: The odds of encountering compelling false evidence are better than you might think. Mysteries have endless facets, leading to endless opportunities for coincidences to occur. It's a matter of cumulative odds.

The Evidence

We're all familiar with the story. Two bloodhounds separately trailed the scent of the EAR to a location a half-mile away from an attack on Liberta Court (12-09-1978). The scent ended where a car had apparently been parked. Nearby a criminologist found multiple sheets of paper that had been torn from a spiral notebook. The pages comprise what we often call the Custer Essay, the Mad Is the Word Essay, and the Punishment Map.

The linkage of this evidence to the EAR includes (1) the timing and location of their discovery, (2) one essay reading like an angry rant, (3) the map corresponding to the type of residential neighborhood that the EAR liked to prowl, and (4) the word “punishment” being scrawled on the back of the map. The EAR of course exhibited anger and was seemingly motivated by retribution.

The Problem with the Evidence

At first blush the Danville Papers look like a gold mine of opportunity filled with fantastic potential. Just pull out the clues that lead to the offender's identity and go solve the case. But not so fast. There are no names or dates on what appear to be grade school compositions. No artist's signature appears on the map, and there are no street names. Everything is obscure, with nothing leading to a specific person or place.^*

If the papers are really what they appear to be (the EAR's work that he truly left behind by accident), wouldn't we expect better clues? This takes us to another proposition:

Four: You know you might have a red herring on your hands when… the context and identifying information are conspicuously absent.

It has been pointed out many times on this message board -- we don't know for sure that the EAR dropped these papers. There isn't anything that definitively ties them to our offender. All that richness of information and so little to show for it. If something seems too good to be true…

Again, I think we've seen this pattern many times before with other mysteries, and I'm thinking of non-hoax events. My thought is to briefly describe a few examples in subsequent posts. If anyone would like to join in, please do.


^* The connection to Mr. Sato is tenuous. The best proposed locations for the map require much pulling, stretching, and rearranging.


EDIT:

For reference, see the summary of the "homework papers" made available by the Casefile Podcast, Case 53. PDF file here.

[morf13]

These leads are just one thing to go on. Why would he have to sign his name to the sheets of paper? I write notes and scratch stuff all the time on a notepad, and don't write my name on it. If he dropped a form that was a job application, or a rental agreement, etc, we would expect to find his name and other no brainer info leading right to his door. But this happened to be notes or loose papers that he didn't feel the need to put his name on. Maybe it's a red herring, maybe not, but it's the best clue to work with. Criminals have been caught by things that they have left at crime scenes, even the best ones make mistakes

[locard]

As the late writer Michelle McNamara said about the papers that were found that they also represent different skill levels. A lower skill level to write the angry essay about the teacher. And a much higher skill level to draw that map.

[locard]

Jun 22, 2017 12:10:00 GMT ricedr said:

I think the ear had cleaned out his east area belongings, thrown everything into his car, including the papers and was on the run. That would make it likely that the vehicle he used in this crime was his own.
Just an opinion but I think those papers are the ear's.
ricedr

I am a native Californian (Northern California) and I have a different theory: I don't think that EAR offended where he lived. I think he was a commuter criminal and he commuted to the crimes. I think that people, including investigators, have put too much stock in the fact that he had to have lived in the Sacramento area. EAR was careful with everything. He was methodical. 

As the late writer Michelle McNamara pointed out, that EAR frequently mentioned to victims that he had a van, he needed money for his van.  Part of what he told victims, to get them to comply, was a ruse. But McNamara thought that maybe there was some truth in what EAR was stated about the van. Why did he eat in victims' homes if he lived nearby, had a kitchen and food? 

[bob]

There were a limited number of male 6th grade teachers in and around the counties where he assaulted. They had a limited number of male students.

Their combined total of students is a smaller number than any preexisting suspect list.

I don't believe any LE investigator has ever used Sato's student list, Cook's student list, or any combined student list.

They'll either find him, or his younger brother, on the list or not.

That's probably the best that will come of the Danville papers.

[Deleted]

The hosts of the VR podcast recently pointed out that the papers were found in an area inaccessible to vehicles on the Iron Horse Regional Trail. If this is actually the case then it is even more difficult to see how they were left there accidentally since the common theory that they feel out of his car is moot. With this guy I wouldn't put it past him to have purposely left them there to either send investigators on a wild goose chase or to incriminate a specific person he had in mind. If on the other hand the papers lead to his capture then he will have to share top billing with Rader for biggest screw up leading to an arrest.

[Any of N]

Jun 22, 2017 8:25:07 GMT morf13 said:

These leads are just one thing to go on. Why would he have to sign his name to the sheets of paper? I write notes and scratch stuff all the time on a notepad, and don't write my name on it. If he dropped a form that was a job application, or a rental agreement, etc, we would expect to find his name and other no brainer info leading right to his door. But this happened to be notes or loose papers that he didn't feel the need to put his name on. Maybe it's a red herring, maybe not, but it's the best clue to work with. Criminals have been caught by things that they have left at crime scenes, even the best ones make mistakes

The lack of a name is part of an overall pattern. I carry around a notebook at work every day, and if you were to take a few pages at random you would find things like dates, headings, and project names. But you and I are only an N of two. Short of doing a study, we'll just have to go by our considered judgment. I think I see a conspicuous lack of information. Essays are things that get turned in for grades, so they need to have names and dates. Maps tend to have streets and other features labeled.  

When we do see something with potential it tends to be maddeningly obscure. The map has the body of water labeled as "Lake spope" and "Lake Doge." There's the word "punshment" on the back with the tail of a big spiral shape serving as a backwards P.  There's also "teachia leasey" or some such as well as "Milling," "Jena," possibly "Mellanie," and "Cone from Snells." If the EAR dropped the papers, we have one unlikely set of events (shortage of identifying info) nested inside another unlikely event (finding evidence lost by a highly elusive predator). Rarity compounded by rarity. 

Alternatively, it could be a situation where some items found near a crime scene just happened to be hard to identify. Items that seem like they could be related, but aren't. That strikes me as less unlikely overall because the number and variety of things that could be found near a crime is practically unlimited.

Or, like Ludolf said, it could be misdirection by the EAR. That could also explain why we're "so close, so close and yet so far" away.

[Any of N]

Jun 22, 2017 12:10:00 GMT ricedr said:

As Any of N posted: false evidence is eliminated quickly. These papers are nearly forty years old and not eliminated.
There are several reasons I believe these papers belong to the ear. I could probably explain away all but this one notion. The Punishment and 6th grade rants were evidently written by a troubled soul. I was punished in the 6th grade. I got over it. That goes for the 7th, 8th, and on and on. A normal person gets over it. This nut could not. His check valves were defective.
I know there were a lot of nuts rolling around California. What are the odds two nuts rolled over that spot where the hounds lost the scent. Someone pointed out in another thread that the papers evidently hadn't been on the ground for long or they would have been in a worse condition. So two nuts were there at about the same time?
I think the ear had cleaned out his east area belongings, thrown everything into his car, including the papers and was on the run. That would make it likely that the vehicle he used in this crime was his own.
Just an opinion but I think those papers are the ear's.
ricedr

I don't think what you're saying is unreasonable, but it could also be wrong. We really don't know what the conditions were when the Mad essay was written or what the author was feeling at the time. Some kids hate to write. Give them a touchy-feely assignment and who knows what they might grind out. Well, Jena over their just read her essay aloud, Happy is the Word. (Gaaak!) Bob next to me is writing Hungry is the Word. (Heh.) What the heck can I write about? Mrs. Jones says it has to be something that really happened to me. (Groan!) Well, I was a bit miffed last year when our field trip got canceled...

You said, "These papers are nearly forty years old and not eliminated." There was one other proposition I wanted to add in the original post but couldn't fit it in. So as not to get carried away, this will be the last one, I promise.

Five:  Lack of identifying information is not highly suggestive of evidence validity.

Neither eliminated nor verified. That's a wash. 

[fordprefect]

If they were a red herring meant to distract LE, then the joke was on EAR since the papers were ignored for a few decades.

More seriously, I am boringly in the middle of the road on this one. I'm not convinced they were genuinely written by EAR. I'm not convinced they belonged to someone else or were red herrings. Being in the middle like that, I don't see the harm in anyone pursuing the papers seriously, and my feathers remain unruffled when people insist they weren't genuine or EAR's.

ricedr wrote:

"If I assume the papers are important because LE held onto them for so long then do I assume the rape kits and other evidence that were discarded were not important? It's a strange study in common sense vs policies and procedures."

My understanding is that LE's holding on to the Danville papers was accidental. They were forgotten about and found only recently. (I know someone will have more specifics about this).

It makes you wish someone had misfiled the "Afraid" letter.

[Any of N]

I'll tell you what. If this was an effort at misdirection by the EAR, he was spectacularly successful. Imagine his glee if he's still alive and following what goes on. He'd almost be as happy if false evidence like this turned up on its own.

The best example of false evidence I can think of, regardless of the type of mystery involved, is the infamous Umbrella Man. If you haven't yet seen the mini-documentary by Errol Morris, check it out forthwith. 


Link to NY Times page.

Right where JFK was shot is a man holding an open umbrella. It's not raining and nobody else has one. A photograph of this guy constitutes hard evidence, does it not? Hard evidence that just sort of hangs out there by itself. Until they find the guy and haul him in before congress. That umbrella? It was just for making a weird protest gesture, aimed at JFK's father. Merely a very odd coincidence with the shooting.

[jmm0099]

With a more conventional offender, I'd say there was no chance that was a red herring, but I put nothing past him.

The punishment map seems the most fitting to the offender.

I don't know about the homework pages. I don't think the same person authored Excitement's Crave and Mad is the Word. At first I thought that Mad was authentic and Excitement's Crave was just some rando writing the newspaper, but I think it's possible that it's the other way around, or that neither are authentic... I doubt both are authentic.

[bob]

Hi AnyOfN,

I like this post, because it questions assumptions. That said, I still believe the papers were accidentally left by EAR. 

The umbrella man video is just a person holding an umbrella in a video; he is one of many people near a shooting. The umbrella and its carrier are neither more nor less compelling than all others at the crime scene, all of whom must be investigated along with the various accessories they carried.

The Danville papers were not found in a crowd of people with accessories. I believe they were the only item there. Which increases the likelihood that they are relevant to someone who recently left the spot (the perpetrator). Like all evidence, the papers (should have been) must be processed as evidence. Somewhere there is very likely a 6th grade teacher who... yada, yada, yada. It's extremely important to investigate this.

Do I believe EAR left them? Yes, because of their content, mood, immaturity, timing, and location.

Did he leave them by accident? Yes. Because if they were a red herring, it would have been a female 6th grade teacher. The pool of male 6th grade teachers is fairly small. It's easy to check. Investigators then should have followed up. And I believe that investigators now can find all male 6th grade teachers' students (and their older brothers). 

LE should ask victims if the notebook was stolen from them. There is a lot to investigate with those papers. But the lead re: the 6th grade, male, sentence-writing, field-trip loving teacher is somewhat finite. It's finite enough that it should be exhausted and put to rest.

The lack of a name on the papers doesn't mean they aren't real. The Mad rant and the Custer essay were never turned in, so they weren't graded either. There are plenty of kids who forget to put their names on their work, and forget to turn it in. I'm a mom. One of my kids went a whole year in grade school without turning in a single assignment. I put his homework in his backpack every morning. It NEVER got there! There is a black hole in the universe full of lost homework and missing socks. 

Presuming the papers are a red herring, why include a Custer essay? Whom does that incriminate? Custer is dead. How does it mislead? I believe it doesn't.
Why not drop a bill of sale from an auto yard? an Officer's Club? a security guard firm? Why not drop a beer can? Jewelry from another crime scene? I wish there was a name on the paper(s), but I think the Custer Essay does more to legitimize the drop than anything. 

It's possible he was a teacher instead of a student. And hopefully LE will consider athletic teachers. If the drop was intentional, I think he's a teacher. But I think those papers fell out by accident.

Good thread from you as always!

[jackydee]

They may or may not be a red herring. They may or may not have been accidentally left. Still, they probably deserve to be investigated by LE especially if LE believe they did not receive adequate attention in the past.

[Any of N]

Bob, thank you for the kind words and the thoughtful reply. We can agree to disagree, but I have a few thoughts about what you wrote.

The Faux Importance of Umbrella Man

You're right, he was just another guy in the crowd who was no more important than anyone else. That's not how private researchers saw it, though. Due to the significance of the crime they were primed and ready to assign meaning to anything that looked suspicious. An open umbrella looked like a possible signal. There was also timing, location, and circumstance to consider. And for a time nobody could find this person. (Or maybe they could, but being this was long before the internet it seemed that way.)


The (Faux?) Importance of the Danville Papers

Okay, so the papers were out there in the bushes all by themselves. But in a sense they were indeed a single face milling among a vast throng. LE investigated over 50 home invasions and on each occasion the surrounding neighborhoods were canvassed, sometimes several times by different investigators. Bloodhounds followed the offender's scent after multiple attacks. LE followed the suspected paths through drainage beds and greenbelts. They also trawled through the 100+ burglaries thought to be related. That created much opportunity for something compelling yet false to be found. And as private researchers obsessed by the case, we're primed and ready to assign meaning.


Deliberate Misdirection v. Mere Happenstance

I too think it's unlikely that the EAR-ONS wrote the papers from scratch as part of an elaborate prank. Too much work for too little payoff. He would have been so much better off taking a different approach. We're completely in agreement on that. When misdirection is discussed, speculation seems to focus more on opportunistic appropriation. We imagine the offender stumbling across the papers. "What the heck? Mad is the word? Ooh, I know what I can do with this." Might as well include the Custer essay. Doesn't hurt.

More interesting for me is the possibility that the papers were a random occurrence. Yes, some kid didn't bother to write down his name or the composition dates. He didn't sign his art or put many labels on the map. It can happen. I'm thinking it did happen that way. And it caused so many problems.

[bob]

I believe LE needs to rule out the possibility that the notebook was stolen from someone in Sac. or Visalia. 

I wish they would publicize the notebook more. 

Either way they need to find students of male 6th grade teachers.