Pattern of Attacks in East Sacramento

[Any of N]

All that great work done with Geographic Profiling shouldn't stop us from looking at the attack patterns ourselves. There may be characteristics in the clusters that the math fails to take into account. With that in mind, consider the following circumstances in regard to East Sacramento:

• The attacks northward scatter roughly in a southwest-northeast diagonal pattern.
• The attacks southward do so as well, generally following the American River.
• There are two tightly packed clusters on either side of Riverbend Park, with six attacks in Rancho Cordova and three across the river in La Riviera Carmichael. There were no bridges in the immediate area at the time.
  
• The EAR liked to jump the river in consecutive attacks, doing so with few exceptions during the first 19 opportunities.
• The EAR never hit within the same suburb or "census-designated area" for two consecutive attacks. (The icons numbered 30 and 31 represent two victims for one attack.) Again, we're talking about East Sacramento only.
  

A lot of the speculation regarding the EAR's base of operations concerns there being two: one north and one south. For now let's consider the possibility that there was only one. Where might it have been?

Here is an annotated map, similar to one I posted in another thread which is again based on the FBI's map.



This map imagines EAR using Watt and Auburn as his main thoroughfares, and he laterals off from there to select targets. If his base is somewhere near Watt and Arden Way, then he benefits from a series of simple routes. (Roads highlighted in magenta.)

Consider, for example, Attacks 1 and 2 on either side of the river. He simply goes south on Watt and turns east in both instances. The routes are similar with one taking longer. With the attacks on La Riviera added, a southward diagonal pattern results. If the EAR takes east-west roads intersecting Watt and Auburn as highlighted, a northward diagonal pattern is also a natural consequence. These pathways also facilitate the practices of alternating river sides and suburbs on consecutive attacks.

One thing it doesn't do is explain the large tight cluster in Rancho Cordova. Yet it doesn't preclude it, either.

I offer this up as merely one possibility. Others have made similar observations in the past, but I hope the map makes it clear. The Watt-Auburn approach would have made things simple for the EAR to reach all the attack sites from a single base. It also leads me to the question -- has anyone looked along Watt Ave in Arden-Arcade for potential POI's?

[Justflint]

I looked at the map and read the same thing for the most part. Post is in the thread with the geolocation maps. It looks like a route someone went a lot, taking different little detours to get there. Origin is near the college campus or fairgrounds. East Sacramento arcade area. Figure the rancho cluster is on the south route that kicks north on sunrise. Follow Madison East. A big lake and whatnot. Picks up the furthest east attacks on the way.

The furthest north little jog ends up at a hill with trainyards. Was this a popular teenager spot? What was the attraction to anyone in the 70's? Maybe a cool hill to ride up and down for a workout? Something along those lines would explain this jog.

#22 was possibly linked with 21. Very tenuous but husband worked at the water treatment plant near 21. Other than that an outlier like the attack almost a year later on april 14,78.

The furthest south attack in Sacramento still has no pattern. The april 14,78 attack. EAR is gone after that. A 14 y/o babysitter who had noted calls at home prior. IMO this girl was a special target for some reason. Out of the way of his usual pattern. Followed to her babysitting job. Very odd.

If I had to guess closer to Howe then watts between cottage and northrop. Just a guess based on the pattern, but the origin might be further west. Doesn't look like it imo tho.

The origin of the route may be the lake and the resulting confusion and difficulty it would make for LE to figure out Fulsom was home base. Also further from the attacks and therefore safer. Destination from there would be the college if I had to hazard a guess. Could be as far as somewhere near the industrial park north at the highway interchanges.

[Any of N]

The earlier Arden-Arcade speculation has him more in the area bordering Carmichael, and he's working his way up Fair Oaks and Manzanita (or a similar path). That may be right, but I don't think it explains the patterns we can see on the map.

An old post by DBW sort-of inspired this thread. He's from the area, so he brings that insight to the table. Here it is. I substituted Fair Oaks for Folsom in one spot because I'm sure that's what he meant (square brackets).

Jan 6, 2015 23:51:17 GMT dbw said:

One way to look at EAR's areas if attack is to make a path from Mather Field Road to Folsom Blvd, to Watt Avenue, Across the American River, Down [Fair Oaks]  Boulevard to Manzanita Avenue, then branch off four ways: Auburn Blvd to Greenback Lane, Madison Avenue to Ornsgevale, winding Way through del Campo/Crestview, Winding way the opposite direction to ARC/Auburn Blvd area.

All follow the path of known EAR activity.
Fair Oaks Blvd generally follows the path parallel to the American River
Greenback/Auburn/Winding Way/Madison provide access to Highway 80.
Folsom Blvd provides access to Highway 50
All major routed provide access to the Watt Avenue Bridge, the service bridge below Sunrise Avenue, the Sunrise Avenue Bridge, the Old Fair Oaks foot bridge, and, if necessary, the Hazel Avenue Bridge, ll crossing the American River.
A little more complicated but fairly close access to the Howe Avenue Bridge, the J Street Bridge, and the suspension foot bridge at CSUS.
Fair Oaks and Folsom are close to the bike trails in both sides if the American River.
All of these routes parallel or cross creek beds and drainage canals.

To me the big question is this - when did he need to cross the river and which way was he heading? If we can establish which side of the American River EAR was operating out of, we can narrow down the area he lived in. The bridges are the convergent points.

So, it comes down to Rancho Cordova (south side) or Carmichael, Del Dayo, or ? (north side).

Rossmo's analysis says Carmichael just north west I Del Campo/Crestview - which would be in, but close to a neighborhood of EAR's attacks.

^{Link to post in original thread.}

It all sounds reasonable, but I think the circuitous river crossings are a problem, and I don't think it would result in the diagonal dispersal of attacks up north. If the EAR starts on Watt on the north side of the river, it would explain a lot.

[jackydee]

Sept 16, 2017 7:37:15 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Definitely a good theory if you want to make the argument that EAR mostly used automobiles. My only issue with this is that you have EAR doubling back from each attack to get back to Auburn or Watt, instead of making a one way circuit using other streets. And if EAR is making the circuit, Rancho Cordova seems like it could be a more logical base, due to the cluster happening there.

Looking back, Arden Arcade is often mentioned as a most likely base for EAR. That opens up the possibility of him using both the Strong and Chicken Ranch Sloughs (or easements), which lead to the Arcade Creek, giving him stealth access to nearly every northeast Sac attack--with or without a car. An Arden Arcade base would suggest he used a car to reach La Riv, Del Dayo and RC, while an RC base suggests he reached them on foot or bike, but used a car driving a circuit for all other east Sac strikes.

As he was clever enough to alternate attacks north and south, I would say he was also clever enough to mix car, foot and bike. In short, you have to imagine him being intentionally unpredictable--and that would be his "pattern." Then again if he had prior knowledge to LE strategy, his actions could be the opposite of theirs--so you might look for a pattern that countered LE intelligence at the time.

I know the routes he used are the main focus of this thread but I have for a long time been convinced he's from North of the American River. Instead of dividing his attacks between North and South of the River I divide them between those attacks that run one hundred or so yards along the River and those attacks significantly North of the river. Apart from 10 these Northern attacks steer well, well away from the river. However, if you run a line through these Northern attacks they run roughly equa-distant parallel to the river. I just cant get it out of my head that this can be coincidence. I think he lived somewhere in that pocket between the river and his Northern line of attacks. I wouldn't attempt to be any more geographically specific than that.

[michravera]

Sept 16, 2017 7:37:15 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Definitely a good theory if you want to make the argument that EAR mostly used automobiles. My only issue with this is that you have EAR doubling back from each attack to get back to Auburn or Watt, instead of making a one way circuit using other streets. And if EAR is making the circuit, Rancho Cordova seems like it could be a more logical base, due to the cluster happening there.

Looking back, Arden Arcade is often mentioned as a most likely base for EAR. That opens up the possibility of him using both the Strong and Chicken Ranch Sloughs (or easements), which lead to the Arcade Creek, giving him stealth access to nearly every northeast Sac attack--with or without a car. An Arden Arcade base would suggest he used a car to reach La Riv, Del Dayo and RC, while an RC base suggests he reached them on foot or bike, but used a car driving a circuit for all other east Sac strikes.

As he was clever enough to alternate attacks north and south, I would say he was also clever enough to mix car, foot and bike. In short, you have to imagine him being intentionally unpredictable--and that would be his "pattern." Then again if he had prior knowledge to LE strategy, his actions could be the opposite of theirs--so you might look for a pattern that countered LE intelligence at the time.

I have always assumed that he used different methods of approach and retreat and had alternates available for each. It wouldn't surprise me, if, for instance, he had prepared to steal several bikes for his getaway. Bring his own (probably higher performance bike) and stash it some distance away but know that he could steal a few others and ride it to his own, if he had been unexpectedly pursued. I am pretty sure that he had a car (van or tow truck would be better) some additional distance away where he could dump the bike and would look like just another tow truck or delivery driver sleeping in the cab at 4:30AM waiting for the next call or for the loading crew to arrive.

If he used the creeks or water systems, he may have known which ones were dry and where he could hide until things cooled off. And a bike or a car would have just made things more convenient some of the time.

[Any of N]

Sept 16, 2017 20:32:39 GMT jackydee said:

Sept 16, 2017 7:37:15 GMT @cloudofwitnesses said:

Definitely a good theory if you want to make the argument that EAR mostly used automobiles. My only issue with this is that you have EAR doubling back from each attack to get back to Auburn or Watt, instead of making a one way circuit using other streets. And if EAR is making the circuit, Rancho Cordova seems like it could be a more logical base, due to the cluster happening there.

Looking back, Arden Arcade is often mentioned as a most likely base for EAR. That opens up the possibility of him using both the Strong and Chicken Ranch Sloughs (or easements), which lead to the Arcade Creek, giving him stealth access to nearly every northeast Sac attack--with or without a car. An Arden Arcade base would suggest he used a car to reach La Riv, Del Dayo and RC, while an RC base suggests he reached them on foot or bike, but used a car driving a circuit for all other east Sac strikes.

As he was clever enough to alternate attacks north and south, I would say he was also clever enough to mix car, foot and bike. In short, you have to imagine him being intentionally unpredictable--and that would be his "pattern." Then again if he had prior knowledge to LE strategy, his actions could be the opposite of theirs--so you might look for a pattern that countered LE intelligence at the time.

I know the routes he used are the main focus of this thread but I have for a long time been convinced he's from North of the American River. Instead of dividing his attacks between North and South of the River I divide them between those attacks that run one hundred or so yards along the River and those attacks significantly North of the river. Apart from 10 these Northern attacks steer well, well away from the river. However, if you run a line through these Northern attacks they run roughly equa-distant parallel to the river. I just cant get it out of my head that this can be coincidence. I think he lived somewhere in that pocket between the river and his Northern line of attacks. I wouldn't attempt to be any more geographically specific than that.

The thread is about patterns, too, so you're right on topic, jackydee. Here's a table looking at three of the patterns, which includes your river proximity observation.



Switching sides of the river on consecutive attacks seems intentional, as it happens on two-thirds of the possible opportunities. Switching among suburbs on consecutive attacks must absolutely be intentional as it happens at every single opportunity. The northern attacks paralleling the river also look like an intentional pattern as you point out, but maybe that was the indirect result using the Watt-Auburn routes.

Geometry's map makes it easy to see the switching of the suburbs.



Did the EAR benefit by alternating suburbs? I seem to recall posters claiming he did not, given that most attacks fell under the jurisdiction of the Sacramento County Sheriff's Department. And, the thinking goes, this suggests he wasn't so knowledgeable about LE after all. If nick and others wouldn't mind weighing in...

[trabuco]

It makes sense that the EAR would do attack #1 in an area where he felt comfortable and familiar with. When the EAR was contemplating attacking his first couple he again comes back to that same area in attack #16. There are first times for many things and they bring about moments of uncertainty that makes us add another layer of protection.

[Ranger71]

This is why I'm curious to see what happens with Dexters POIs. One was from RC near Dawes and Folsom Blvd, and also shows an address at some point in the center of Folsom, which may have been way later than the 1970's but who knows. The other living POI went to HS in Orangevale and we know a few things happened there. With a car you could strike in Citrus Hts/Fair Oaks and take a main thoroughfare straight across to Orangevale.
Maybe POI #1 struck in RC early on to get home quickly and test things out. Perhaps later if both were working together they hit further areas and helped with the use of a van/car.
**POI 1's address in Folsom was backed up right against a middle school.

[englishman]

I think he did Any of N. With the exception of attacks 47, 10, 15 and 27 the attacks seem to be clustered in reasonably close proximity, that makes me think he scouted a particular parts of suburbs and returned there rather then moving on a couple of blocks, he perhaps wasn't out every day/night running in peoples gardens and blue printing every street.

He avoided the riverside of Arden Arcade like the plague, but Carmichael got hit quite frequently by the river, was there anything in this area which put him off attacking?

[dagglebort]

If you look at the first eleven attacks you will see that the Rancho Cordova Cluster is already almost fully developed. This means the EAR either lived in this area or traveled from somewhere else to Rancho cluster for attacks: 1,3,6,8 and earlier pre attack 1 incidents on Dolecetto and Dawes. If traveled into or out of the area I would assume:

1. Definitely must use Folsom for travel into or out of Rancho. This is the only pattern I see.
2. Likely may have used 50.
3. If traveled from or into Arden Arcade likely used Watt.
4. If traveled into Fair Oaks and Orangevale likely used Sunrise.
5. IMO I don't really see him swimming the river or commando crossing the river. I could be very wrong. Just my opinion.
6. Attacks 1 & 3 he showed up naked from the waist down. I don't know how far you can travel on foot, running, jumping fences, thrashing through high brush in open fields or by bicycle when you are naked from the waist down.

Attacks 12, 13, 14, 15 are interesting geographically. Attack 13 is the second assault in what I would call the Del Campo cluster which would be attacks 4, 13 and 17. And attack 15 is the return to Rancho Cordova.

[spodey]

Sept 17, 2017 20:16:00 GMT englishman said:

I think he did Any of N. With the exception of attacks 47, 10, 15 and 27 the attacks seem to be clustered in reasonably close proximity, that makes me think he scouted a particular parts of suburbs and returned there rather then moving on a couple of blocks, he perhaps wasn't out every day/night running in peoples gardens and blue printing every street.

He avoided the riverside of Arden Arcade like the plague, but Carmichael got hit quite frequently by the river, was there anything in this area which put him off attacking?

Your comment on his staying away from  Arden Arcade made me check it via Google and this news article about it came up with some history of Arden Arcade from the 1980s.  The article made me think that it wasn't " his style" and he may have been too well known there for whatever reason.

www.sacbee.com/news/local/article173222226.html

[englishman]

Sept 17, 2017 22:17:13 GMT spodey said:

Sept 17, 2017 20:16:00 GMT englishman said:

I think he did Any of N. With the exception of attacks 47, 10, 15 and 27 the attacks seem to be clustered in reasonably close proximity, that makes me think he scouted a particular parts of suburbs and returned there rather then moving on a couple of blocks, he perhaps wasn't out every day/night running in peoples gardens and blue printing every street.

He avoided the riverside of Arden Arcade like the plague, but Carmichael got hit quite frequently by the river, was there anything in this area which put him off attacking?

Your comment on his staying away from  Arden Arcade made me check it via Google and this news article about it came up with some history of Arden Arcade from the 1980s.  The article made me think that it wasn't " his style" and he may have been too well known there for whatever reason.

www.sacbee.com/news/local/article173222226.html

Lower income housing, immigrants from Middle Eastern and South Asian countries. You can stand out in some areas, from personal experience I find people in areas with a high volume of immigration tend to keep themselves to themselves, they don't like to get involved in other peoples business, especially if the other person is not from the same background, second generations tend to mix more. 

[Any of N]

I wanted to get back to this thread and make a few more observations about the patterns. Note the table above that shows (1) frequent changing to the other side of the river on consecutive attacks, (2) constant changing of suburbs on consecutive attacks, and (3) an even split of north and south attacks in East Sacramento. If you agree it looks deliberate, then the evidence supports the following conclusions:
 

• The EAR was not a classic "marauder offender" who attacked where he happened to be frequenting. This looks more like commuting within a confined area. I believe there is research that questions the marauder-commuter distinction, so maybe EAR was a hybrid type.
• The EAR picked the neighborhoods first, then selected victims from the neighborhoods.
  
• The EAR was well-aware of the boundary lines between the different suburbs and it mattered to him.
  
• The EAR was a systematic thinker who planned his attacks from multiple levels of abstraction.
  

We debate these points a lot, and I've sometimes been on the other side. Being human, we are all hard-wired to see patterns, and we sometimes see them where they don't exist or were they happened by chance. But it really looks to me like he was spacing out his attacks with care. The paths I have highlighted in the original post would have facilitated his efforts.

[michravera]

Sept 17, 2017 5:18:08 GMT Any of N said:

Sept 16, 2017 20:32:39 GMT jackydee said:

I know the routes he used are the main focus of this thread but I have for a long time been convinced he's from North of the American River. Instead of dividing his attacks between North and South of the River I divide them between those attacks that run one hundred or so yards along the River and those attacks significantly North of the river. Apart from 10 these Northern attacks steer well, well away from the river. However, if you run a line through these Northern attacks they run roughly equa-distant parallel to the river. I just cant get it out of my head that this can be coincidence. I think he lived somewhere in that pocket between the river and his Northern line of attacks. I wouldn't attempt to be any more geographically specific than that.

The thread is about patterns, too, so you're right on topic, jackydee. Here's a table looking at three of the patterns, which includes your river proximity observation.



Switching sides of the river on consecutive attacks seems intentional, as it happens on two-thirds of the possible opportunities. Switching among suburbs on consecutive attacks must absolutely be intentional as it happens at every single opportunity. The northern attacks paralleling the river also look like an intentional pattern as you point out, but maybe that was the indirect result using the Watt-Auburn routes.

Geometry's map makes it easy to see the switching of the suburbs.



Did the EAR benefit by alternating suburbs? I seem to recall posters claiming he did not, given that most attacks fell under the jurisdiction of the Sacramento County Sheriff's Department. And, the thinking goes, this suggests he wasn't so knowledgeable about LE after all. If nick and others wouldn't mind weighing in...

This map definitely looks like a guy who could swim or boat across the river with a stashed bike on each side. The distance from the river the northern line of attacks looks just like what would be comfortable for leisurely 30 minute (or haul ass 10 minute) ride from the river. I know that I would ride to a girlfriend's aunt's house in Foothill Farms from my house on La Riviera near Howe (when I was 15 or 16 and couldn't drive).

Stashed bike to stashed boat to stashed bike, attack and reverse the process. Maybe the guy even *LIVED* on a stashed rowboat. Maybe this would explain some of the smells? If it was too hard to get to the boat at the time (or he thought that it was staked out), he would simply stay on the bike and use Watt, Howe, or Sunrise to get to safety, or grab another (and worry about the boat or raft which was decoupled from the attacks later).

At basically any time during the Sacramento County attacks, except during a deluge or spring thaw, one could swim across the American River at any point between what is now known as CASR-51 (it was a part of I-80 then) and Sunrise Blvd in less than about one minute. It might take a bit more than that (like 3 minutes) to do it in a rowboat or rubber raft, but that could be accomplished even at deluge or spring thaw (and you could even get to a convenient and precise location with one of those conveyances).

So, has anyone done the study of the late night and early morning flow rates of the American River during the attacks? Did EAR complete any attacks during a deluge or spring thaw?

[michravera]

Sept 30, 2017 3:26:41 GMT michravera said:

Sept 17, 2017 5:18:08 GMT Any of N said:

The thread is about patterns, too, so you're right on topic, jackydee. Here's a table looking at three of the patterns, which includes your river proximity observation.



Switching sides of the river on consecutive attacks seems intentional, as it happens on two-thirds of the possible opportunities. Switching among suburbs on consecutive attacks must absolutely be intentional as it happens at every single opportunity. The northern attacks paralleling the river also look like an intentional pattern as you point out, but maybe that was the indirect result using the Watt-Auburn routes.

Geometry's map makes it easy to see the switching of the suburbs.



Did the EAR benefit by alternating suburbs? I seem to recall posters claiming he did not, given that most attacks fell under the jurisdiction of the Sacramento County Sheriff's Department. And, the thinking goes, this suggests he wasn't so knowledgeable about LE after all. If nick and others wouldn't mind weighing in...

This map definitely looks like a guy who could swim or boat across the river with a stashed bike on each side. The distance from the river the northern line of attacks looks just like what would be comfortable for leisurely 30 minute (or haul ass 10 minute) ride from the river. I know that I would ride to a girlfriend's aunt's house in Foothill Farms from my house on La Riviera near Howe (when I was 15 or 16 and couldn't drive).

Stashed bike to stashed boat to stashed bike, attack and reverse the process. Maybe the guy even *LIVED* on a stashed rowboat. Maybe this would explain some of the smells? If it was too hard to get to the boat at the time (or he thought that it was staked out), he would simply stay on the bike and use Watt, Howe, or Sunrise to get to safety, or grab another (and worry about the boat or raft which was decoupled from the attacks later).

At basically any time during the Sacramento County attacks, except during a deluge or spring thaw, one could swim across the American River at any point between what is now known as CASR-51 (it was a part of I-80 then) and Sunrise Blvd in less than about one minute. It might take a bit more than that (like 3 minutes) to do it in a rowboat or rubber raft, but that could be accomplished even at deluge or spring thaw (and you could even get to a convenient and precise location with one of those conveyances).

So, has anyone done the study of the late night and early morning flow rates of the American River during the attacks? Did EAR complete any attacks during a deluge or spring thaw?

... and, if he used a raft, it would bolster my offhanded theory, given what I can think of now then that I didn't think of back then, that EAR worked for one of the raft rental companies. If so, he would have had access to hundreds of untraceable rafts, especially on weekdays not during the summer season and to many people's driver's licenses (which were often left as bail for return of the raft)!
It would also explain why he didn't attack in the summer. He worked days and couldn't spare the required recon and attack time!
Also, maybe he didn't attack in the summer because it would be too easy to relate an attack to the source of addresses.
It would also explain some of the mistaken and aborted attacks (people who had recently moved).
It would also explain how he "vanished into the fog". Even when it was clear in the rest of the city, it was often foggy just by the river (and sometimes, for reasons that I don't fully understand, out in the area along the northern band of attacks as laid out in the map).
It would also explain his bent for creeks and trails adjacent thereto in areas away from Sacramento.
Maybe the smell that some of the victims detected was material used in constructing and repairing rafts. A kind of blue paint or dye was often used on some of these rafts.

If someone found one of these rafts abandoned, it would likely have been dismissed as "someone left there raft here" or, more likely, if found in February or March, "a raft that got thrashed at Folsom lake back in October finally washed up. I wonder how it got through the dams". The latter certainly would have been my reaction!