Possible Connection between 1973 Sac and the VR?

[hoth]

Mar 2, 2018 15:47:34 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 11:17:21 GMT attxlatt121 said:

Yeah the strangest thing for me is that people are saying the 73 suspect sounds just like the EAR and that it could likely be him. Yet, the new suspect has more in common with the VR than the EAR. Why the disconnect? Is it only because he’s in Sacramento?

Wouldn’t it be more logical even to say oh this ‘73 suspect doesn’t really sound like the EAR, but it could be the VR. Anyway.

The only possible reason for the disconnect is human nature.  The same exact thing happened with the Maggiore's.  All of the evidence pointed to the EAR and it took 40 years for the Sacramento Sheriff's office to finally officially make the connection.  And only after the FBI publicly made the connection by putting the Maggiore sketch on their EAR flyer.  I am thrilled by the progress, and hopeful that they can speed up the rate at which they challenge their old assumptions in this case. Clark did in fact say that it was possible that the EAR and the VR were the same guy.  How long until he realizes that it is likely is hard to say.  The case is speeding up and with the FBI looking over his shoulder past assumptions will no longer go unquestioned. 

Yep.  You can see aliens and UFOs all your life but you still for some reason need the government to acknowledge them as real for you to be able to acknowledge them yourself. Why take the blue chip stamps, I think as another poster wrote in another thread is a lot of what EAR does is take the small things that are important to you but that losing them would cause you some sort of pain and discomfort.  And then also I think there is an element of "collecting" these somewhat important items as momentos that if he wants he can keep in his possession or dump in the next yard as just so much garbage if he doesn't need them anymore.   

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 16:22:16 GMT hoth said:

Mar 2, 2018 15:47:34 GMT redding2 said:

The only possible reason for the disconnect is human nature.  The same exact thing happened with the Maggiore's.  All of the evidence pointed to the EAR and it took 40 years for the Sacramento Sheriff's office to finally officially make the connection.  And only after the FBI publicly made the connection by putting the Maggiore sketch on their EAR flyer.  I am thrilled by the progress, and hopeful that they can speed up the rate at which they challenge their old assumptions in this case. Clark did in fact say that it was possible that the EAR and the VR were the same guy.  How long until he realizes that it is likely is hard to say.  The case is speeding up and with the FBI looking over his shoulder past assumptions will no longer go unquestioned. 

Yep.  You can see aliens and UFOs all your life but you still for some reason need the government to acknowledge them as real for you to be able to acknowledge them yourself. Why take the blue chip stamps, I think as another poster wrote in another thread is a lot of what EAR does is take the small things that are important to you but that losing them would cause you some sort of pain and discomfort.  And then also I think there is an element of "collecting" these somewhat important items as momentos that if he wants he can keep in his possession or dump in the next yard as just so much garbage if he doesn't need them anymore.   

I agree that he was a collector type.  Clearly a coin collector IMO.  He stole what interested him specifically.  And the blue chip stamps interested him.  Probably because his mom collected them, and he picked up the habit from her.  The idea of getting something for free by collecting these stamps probably intrigued him.  The frustrating thing about these stamps is that it would take you forever to save up for the big items.  So a chance to finally beat the system by stealing the books of stamps was very appealing to him.  Plus if he did get a big item like a dining room table he would have a trophy of all the break ins right there in his house.  Out in the open and untraceable.

[attxlatt121]

Mar 2, 2018 15:57:32 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 11:45:41 GMT attxlatt121 said:

They don’t say and they seem pretty secretive. I guess they are some kind of criminologist, as they mention working on a case with LE where the suspect burned his computer and house down then shot himself in the head. This was because the police just went up to the man and said he suspected and asked for a dna sample.

My best guess is that they were paid by Clifton's team to put all of that together, but I find it odd that they are so secretive. 

Didn’t Clifton die in 2013? I messaged them and asked if they would consider making a new podcast regarding the new leads

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 16:39:27 GMT attxlatt121 said:

Mar 2, 2018 15:57:32 GMT redding2 said:

My best guess is that they were paid by Clifton's team to put all of that together, but I find it odd that they are so secretive. 

Didn’t Clifton die in 2013? I messaged them and asked if they would consider making a new podcast regarding the new leads

Exactly. So why go through the trouble to post it?  Only if they were being paid by his family right?  Strange very strange. 

[portofleith]

I've done a little more research on the trading stamps theft- very, very  common in the 1970's.  The suspicious young man who came into the Blue Chip Trading center in Visalia in October 1973, traded books for women's earrings and necklaces, stating they were for his mother.  He returned several more times, once staging a temper tantrum for driving his car over a curb.

Note the ransacking in the article below and the blocking of the front door.

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 17:16:21 GMT portofleith said:

I've done a little more research on the trading stamps theft- very, very  common in the 1970's.  The suspicious young man who came into the Blue Chip Trading center in Visalia in October 1973, traded books for women's earrings and necklaces, stating they were for his mother.  He returned several more times, once staging a temper tantrum for driving his car over a curb.

Note the ransacking in the article below and the blocking of the front door.

Isn't the fact that it made the paper proof that it was an unusual behavior?  It is in the paper precisely because it was atypical.  That was the point of the article.  Again I appreciate you looking this up and putting the blue chip stamp thefts in perspective.  At the same time to say it was a very very common thing to steal is overstating things.  As you point out when the investigators went to redemption center the center had one guy in mind.  Not dozens, one.  Did they ever track down the composite of this guy that was always coming in with books of blue chip stamps.

[portofleith]

Mar 2, 2018 17:19:12 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:16:21 GMT portofleith said:

I've done a little more research on the trading stamps theft- very, very  common in the 1970's.  The suspicious young man who came into the Blue Chip Trading center in Visalia in October 1973, traded books for women's earrings and necklaces, stating they were for his mother.  He returned several more times, once staging a temper tantrum for driving his car over a curb.

Note the ransacking in the article below and the blocking of the front door.

Isn't the fact that it made the paper proof that it was an unusual behavior?  It is in the paper precisely because it was atypical.  That was the point of the article.  Again I appreciate you looking this up and putting the blue chip stamp thefts in perspective.  At the same time to say it was a very very common thing to steal is overstating things.  As you point out when the investigators went to redemption center the center had one guy in mind.  Not dozens, one. 

I selected this article because it showed some commonalities with the behavior of the Ransacker.  There are 67.000 articles in newspaper.com that are hits for the search "burglar trading stamps".  I can't post all of them, but they sound like the crimes of juvenile offenders.  Does that sound like I am overstating how common these thefts were"  They were extremely common.

[portofleith]

I do not know if this was true for the Blue Chips Center in Visalia, but the S&H stamp redemption Center in Fresno closed in 1975 and referred all of their customers to Visalia for redemption of books.  

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 17:26:17 GMT portofleith said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:19:12 GMT redding2 said:

Isn't the fact that it made the paper proof that it was an unusual behavior?  It is in the paper precisely because it was atypical.  That was the point of the article.  Again I appreciate you looking this up and putting the blue chip stamp thefts in perspective.  At the same time to say it was a very very common thing to steal is overstating things.  As you point out when the investigators went to redemption center the center had one guy in mind.  Not dozens, one. 

I selected this article because it showed some commonalities with the behavior of the Ransacker.  There are 67.000 articles in newspaper.com that are hits for the search "burglar trading stamps".  I can't post all of them, but they sound like the crimes of juvenile offenders.  Does that sound like I am overstating how common these thefts were"  They were extremely common.

I apologize if you are taking this personally.  For perspective according to the crime stats there were 2,000 break ins per year in Visalia in the 1970's.  2,000.  99.9% of them did not involve stealing blue chip stamps.  And when the Police went to the redemption center they only had one guy that routinely traded in large amounts of stamps.  So it was in fact unusual. 

Additionally there are 1.4 million break ins each year.  Multiply that by 40 years that the stamps existed and you get around 40 million break ins.  And you are saying that 67,000 of them involved stealing stamps.  No matter how you look at it stealing stamps is rare and the article that you posted makes that point by saying that the police found it to be odd.  I don't know why you are hell bent on saying that it is very very common because the Police have always made the point that it isn't and that the pattern of stealing these stamps was noteworthy. 

[portofleith]

Mar 2, 2018 17:35:52 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:26:17 GMT portofleith said:

I selected this article because it showed some commonalities with the behavior of the Ransacker.  There are 67.000 articles in newspaper.com that are hits for the search "burglar trading stamps".  I can't post all of them, but they sound like the crimes of juvenile offenders.  Does that sound like I am overstating how common these thefts were"  They were extremely common.

I apologize if you are taking this personally.  For perspective according to the crime stats there were 2,000 break ins per year in Visalia in the 1970's.  2,000.  99.9% of them did not involve stealing blue chip stamps.  And when the Police went to the redemption center they only had one guy that routinely traded in large amounts of stamps.  So it was in fact unusual. 

Unless you have access to other burglary reports, how do you know that taking blue chip stamps was unusual in Visalia?  The Ransacker only stole blue chip stamps from around 10 of the 100 or more homes he entered.  Far more significant was the taking of single earrings.

[morf13]

Mar 2, 2018 17:43:56 GMT portofleith said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:35:52 GMT redding2 said:

I apologize if you are taking this personally.  For perspective according to the crime stats there were 2,000 break ins per year in Visalia in the 1970's.  2,000.  99.9% of them did not involve stealing blue chip stamps.  And when the Police went to the redemption center they only had one guy that routinely traded in large amounts of stamps.  So it was in fact unusual. 

Unless you have access to other burglary reports, how do you know that taking blue chip stamps was unusual in Visalia?  The Ransacker only stole blue chip stamps from around 10 of the 100 or more homes he entered.  Far more significant was the taking of single earrings.

And don't forget the piggy banks 

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 17:43:56 GMT portofleith said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:35:52 GMT redding2 said:

I apologize if you are taking this personally.  For perspective according to the crime stats there were 2,000 break ins per year in Visalia in the 1970's.  2,000.  99.9% of them did not involve stealing blue chip stamps.  And when the Police went to the redemption center they only had one guy that routinely traded in large amounts of stamps.  So it was in fact unusual. 

Unless you have access to other burglary reports, how do you know that taking blue chip stamps was unusual in Visalia?  The Ransacker only stole blue chip stamps from around 10 of the 100 or more homes he entered.  Far more significant was the taking of single earrings.

I know that it was unusual because the police said it was unusual.  And like you said it would mostly be kids that would take blue chip stamps at a single robbery.  This was a grown man taking them from hundreds of robberies.  Huge difference.  Anyways.  Moving on.
I am glad you brought the earrings.  What do you make of the fact that both the 1973 guy and the VR took single earrings and stole blue chip stamp books? 

[redding2]

Mar 2, 2018 17:45:47 GMT morf13 said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:43:56 GMT portofleith said:

Unless you have access to other burglary reports, how do you know that taking blue chip stamps was unusual in Visalia?  The Ransacker only stole blue chip stamps from around 10 of the 100 or more homes he entered.  Far more significant was the taking of single earrings.

And don't forget the piggy banks 

Thanks morf.  What do you make of the dozen MO similarities between the 1973 guy and the VR?

[morf13]

Mar 2, 2018 18:01:36 GMT redding2 said:

Mar 2, 2018 17:45:47 GMT morf13 said:

And don't forget the piggy banks 

Thanks morf.  What do you make of the dozen MO similarities between the 1973 guy and the VR?

There are some similarities for sure

[redding2]

Here is a list of some of the similarities between the 1973 guy and the VR:
1. Stealing blue chip stamps.
2. Handguns
3. Single earrings were taken from pairs
4. Opening a separate point of escape;left screen on bed
5. Stealing Wallets and dumping them in different locations;
6. Stealing Photos;
7. Secondary securing of front door by chair, security chain, or other blocking item;
8. Heavy ransacking of bedrooms and scattering of clothing articles on floor;
9. Women’s undergarments stacked in other rooms;
10. Stealing Piggy Banks + Coins from jars;
11. Stealing class rings;
12. Hang-up phone calls;
13. Waffle print shoes.
14. Ransacking the kitchen
15. Attacked in the evening

It would be very unusual statistically for two burglars to share all of those traits especially when you factor in how rare the single earring thefts, and the blue chip stamp thefts are. Conservatively I would put the odds of the blue chip stamps at 10%, and the odds of the single earrings at 5%. Even if you gave each additional item on the list a probability of 50% each(which is extremely conservative) you would quickly wind up with one in a million odds (actually 1 in 400,000). So stated another way we would only expect to find one burglar with that MO.  Conservatively it would be the same as flipping a coin and getting heads 13 times in a row. Very, very, very, rare.

If you don't believe this then I would invite you to take this problem to the nearest stats. teacher that you can find.