Post by justasking on Mar 9, 2018 5:46:10 GMT
Edit: Notice; I've reconsidered some aspects and modified my thoughts in my later replies to this thread, so this opening draft might not be as pertinent as the later ones to this thread
In favt: DISREGARD this opening post, and look at the most recent ones I've written to this thread.
So, it will be lengthy, perhaps incoherent. There must be some holes in it, like in every theory. Odds are that something along the same lines has been speculated before. Not every aspect of the writing have to work, it could be just some aspect, or it might be none. But I just wrote it, it took time. So I put it here. Make what you will of it.
So:
My working hypothesis now is that whatever locations he seemed to favor at any time, those locations he had primarily familiarized himself with before the time period of attacks there.
When he attacks multiple places in Sacramento, he is (primarily) living elsewhere at that time. But he has done the preliminary work already when he was in Sacramento before. Let's add to this the detail how the central Carmichael seems untouched, like it was the center from where he attacked every direction around.
It might not mean that he would dwell in Carmichael at the time of the attacks, but that Carmichael was the main ground in the former time period when he became familiar with those other Sacramento areas. In my scenario, he was possibly in Carmichael then, and not at the time of the attacks. But for him to familiarize himself with certain areas in Sacramento, those other areas should have something to do with what he was doing in Carmichael. Let's say he worked in Carmichael, and the job offered him the opportunity to become familiar with his future attack locations. Then the job would have been something that probably extended to everywhere near his attacks in Sacramento. What the Rancho Cordova thing was, could be that the supposed job was more heavily directed to that RC area, granting him even more greater familiarity and comfort there.
If he chose his attack locations by this principle, by having been there just before but not anymore, then he would have already started picturing the schemes and scenarios around those areas even earlier on, when he was not attacking there. Let's take something like 4 months as a reference. If the attacks started in Rancho Cordova in June 1976, he could have been there more frequently and notably sometime around February of the same year. Then he could drive freely in his car around the neighborhood, perhaps take more risks in figuring the geography and residents out.
But then when he attacks in June, not many will think in retrospective about February, if nothing very extraordinary didn't happen then. They don't remember that car or that person, or at least they are not likely to make the connection due to the passage of time.
So, if he always attacked locations where his presence had been heavier just a little before but not at the moment, this would mean that (according to my theory) during the time he attacked around Sacramento, he was either in Davis or Modesto (because a little Davis-Modesto stretch is what he does after Sacramento). I would guess Modesto for couple of reasons.
First, Davis is obviously in good proximity to Sacramento. So if he was (for example) working in Carmichael at the time he familiarized himself with Sacramento overall, it could be that Davis belonged to the same package. So Sacramento and Davis would have been frequented by him in the same time period.
Second; when he deviates from the Sacramento attack-wise for the first time, it's in Stockton. Stockton is to the south, to the direction of Modesto. And additionally, let's say he had some relevant residual effects from a hypothetical shoulder injury still at the time he attacked Stockton. He had ceased the crimes for 3 months at this point, and because he was so "driven" with his actions, it's most likely that he would resume then just as soon as it was possible to reasonable degree. His hand (or whatever the obstacle, this is like a metaphor if nothing else) would still hurt but if he wasn't completely invalidated by it anymore, he could go through with it. Still the hand hurted somewhat badly, so it was a little uncomfortable to drive a car with it. He still wants to attack badly at this point, so he chooses Stockton which is a little closer to Modesto.
With Stockton he might have some familiarity outside of this principle (we don't even know if he could have originated from there), or he just goes to a place unfamiliar to him, although it's not comfortable. At least for some reason it's not comfortable for him to attack in Stockton, as evidenced by only two of his attacks having been committed there, 6 months apart from each other so it doesn't seem to be a pattern.
It must be noted that it might not have been a shoulder injury, but some other restriction as evidenced by his 3 month absence, still having some lingering effect after those 3 months. Effects that still weren't restrictive enough anymore at this point to obstruct him from "doing it again", somewhere a little closer (Stockton) to his dwelling place in Modesto.
When he's out of Sacramento for good, in April 1978, it is time for that back-and-forth stretch between Modesto and Davis. As he has stopped attacking in Sacramento, he has has also stopped residing and/or working in Modesto. Now he can put the "intel" he gathered while being in Modesto into use by attacking there.
But as said, he does alternate between Modesto and Davis at this point. Davis he probably knew well enough from his Sacramento days, and Modesto he knew from his Modesto days. But what could be his location now? Let's not forget the main point of this theory: him attacking where his presence had been more heavy and frequent somewhat recently, but not anymore. So that would make his dwelling place at the time of Modesto - Davis attack period somewhere along the line of: Concord - Walnut Creek - Danville - San Ramon - San Jose.
There is somewhat of a triangular relation between Davis and Modesto with ~Concord as the "arrowhead". From Concord he would go 'North - East' to Davis and 'South - East' to Modesto.
The Modesto - Davis is during the summer, and again that 3 month "leave of absence" after that, between July and October (so perhaps it wasn't a shoulder injury after all, on a side note). But when he is back at it in autumn - he attacks Concord, where he had (according to my theory) gathered intel beforehand during the same summer when he was attacking Modesto and Davis, and not many would think back to summer anymore in October, in connection to the crime at least - again, if nothing too extraordinary had occurred then.
But what to make of the San Ramon (let alone San Jose, Danville...) where he attacks just a little after Concord? I'll get to that a little further on.
So, the summer 1978 when he was attacking Modesto - Davis, at that time he had a heavier presence in somewhere around Concord.
After San Ramon, in the remaining two months of year 1978, there are two San Jose attacks a month apart. Then week after the second one in San Jose, he attacks Danville once. At this point he again ceases for 3 and 1/2 months.
After the period of absence, in March 1979 he's back to Rancho Cordova. He really seems to be attached to that place. Hard to say what to make of it, other than that he was already familiar with it. It all started there, so perhaps it was to his "liking" for some reason. Perhaps the victim(s) of this attack would be the one(s) with whom he really came into contact at the time period when he was working in and around Sacramento, before the first known attack. Or if not contact proper, at least he formed some private "connection" to her/them from distance. It's notable that these victims were 12-year old twins. Not the most usual profile for him. Now I'm just speculating and deviating from my main thought, but girls that age might be seen at school. And being twins, they might be registered to a greater degree by the person who came into contact with them.
Anyway. Only a couple of weeks after that single occurrence in Rancho Cordova, he attacks in Fremont. So he's again to the Bay Area. He returned back to the same direction where he had been towards and in the end of 1978. After this he does the double alternation between Walnut Creek and Danville, and then his attacks as the EAR (as opposed to proto-ONS or ONS) come to end, as he was finally confronted by the angry, awakened husband.
It's hard to say where he would have dwelled during the time beginning with the attacks in Concord and through the time of absence, because his next attack is in Rancho Cordova, but it's only a single occurrence in the middle of his Bay Area activities.
Going back to my theory: as I said, I'm not sure where to put him during the time period beginning in October '78 when he attacked Concord, all the way to the ending of the "series" in July '79 in Danville. Looking at the attacks successively, he goes from Concord to the south to San Ramon. So he "skips" Walnut Creek and Danville at this point. After San Ramon, even further to the south to San Jose. It's only one single attack after that back to north in Danville, which was in December 1978, end of the year, before the 3 and 1/2 month absence.
So when thinking about it a little more; he might have been to somewhere around 'Walnut Creek - Danville' at the time period when he attacked Concord to the north, and San Ramon + San Jose to the south.
So when he attacks Danville in the end of the 1978, he is probably dwelling closer to the attack location at the time of the attack than ever before or after. But he was probably just leaving at that point, so maybe he is ready to take such a risk. He is beginning his "leave of absence", after all. But this is the area where he will resurface the next summer.
Can't say where he would live at the time when he attacks Fremont after Ranco Cordova. RC is single occurrence, a deviation. In some sense Fremont too could be a deviation, although it's in the Bay Area close to where he has been residing anyway during 1978.
When he does the final double alternation between Walnut Creek and Danville, it is summer 1979. No school at least. I speculated that he had a heavier presence somewhere around 'Walnut Creek - Danville' during the time period beginning in October 1978, and that's autumn. It should be noted that (at least today?) some southern parts of Walnut Creek still belong to the same San Ramon unified school district as Danville.
But this would mean that at the time of attacking San Ramon in October 1978, he would dwell in the areas that belong to the same unified school district (again, today at least, so it could fall flat) as San Ramon. Maybe the subtlety to note here is that his San Ramon attack is committed in southern part of San Ramon, practically at the margins were the said school district seems to end (today). It was far enough for him. And after all, we already saw how he was more willing to take risks towards the end of 1978 in regards to his own relative vicinity to the attacks, because a little later he attacks Danville too, just as he's leaving the 'Walnut Creek - Danville' area in December 1978.
I don't know how the couple of San Jose attacks (Nov-Dec '78) should be viewed in this theory. I think it is a deviation somewhat like the Rancho Cordova in March '79 and Fremont in April '79 were. It could be that he gathered that little San Jose "intel" he needed during the 3 month absence between July - October of 1978. By the same token, the Fremont intel for the single attack there in April 1979 he probably gathered during the next absence period between December '78 - March '79.
So, after the absence and a little trip back to Rancho Cordova and then a single attack in Fremont, it is summer 1979 and he targets the area where his presence was heavier and more regular beginning in the autumn of 1978, until some point before summer of 1979. Remember, enough time has to pass so that he would be "forgotten". It's the summer of '79, they won't connect the attacks to anyone in the last third of '78, once again: if nothing too extraordinary had taken place.
But there is an unexpected turn with the husband waking up and confronting him, possibly even seeing some detail that could incriminate him. So he could have made changes to his life patterns in response to that turn of events, which are not predictable by this "pattern" I hypothesized. According to the pattern he "should" be somewhere around Goleta in the summer 1979 - but that drive is much, much longer than any of his drives before. So it's very probable that there was a change to the pattern and his dwelling place during the summer of 1979 can't be surmised by the supposed former pattern.
So, if I try to summarize this mess:
-For any area he attacks, he has had a heavier presence there sometime before that (not during the attacks) during which he has gathered much of his "intel"
-He probably spends more time in Modesto (at least at some point) during Sacramento attacks (although he must have at least taken a motel or something while in Sac)
-But it must be noted that the June 1976 - May 1977 period is more regular throughout the year, and doesn't have the same contrast between summer and autumn as the later attacks, so at this point his life is in some way different than it will be from May '77 on. I'd speculate that his work hours are lesser at this point.
-Somewhere around Concord is his "main base" during the Modesto - Davis period (summer 1978)
-When school has begun in 1978, his "base" is along Walnut Creek and Danville
-In the end of the year 1978 he is a little bold and attacks San Ramon, close to where he is dwelling at this point, but just at the very southern margins, almost exactly where the San Ramon unified school district ends (at least today)
-San Jose he probably became more familiar with in the absent period of July 1978 - October 1978, enough for him to commit the two attacks there Nov and Dec '78
-The boldness continues a little after that in December '78, as he attacks Danville for the first time. He is probably just in the process of leaving the area
-After 3 months of absence (March 1979) he makes a trip to Rancho Cordova because he has time for it before some other duties elsewhere put restrictions on him, although he's at this point living somewhere closer to the Bay Area, more to the south.
-That's why he attacks Fremont just couple of weeks later. He probably had done something in or around Fremont during that period of absence from December '78 to March '79 and gathered that little Fremont "intel"
-The summer of 1979 he attacks Walnut Creek and Danville, which he became familiar with as he was there regularly during the autumn 1978
-Can't say where he dwelled during the time between December - June '79 because his pattern obviously changes due to the final EAR attack proper, where the intended male victim confronted him. He makes some change to his pattern at this point, which ends up in him showing up far to the south in Goleta, and him becoming a murderer
...That's pretty much it. I don't know how confusing it might be. I think I must read it myself to see if it makes sense anymore to me either, now after writing it. There might be typos as well.
In favt: DISREGARD this opening post, and look at the most recent ones I've written to this thread.
So, it will be lengthy, perhaps incoherent. There must be some holes in it, like in every theory. Odds are that something along the same lines has been speculated before. Not every aspect of the writing have to work, it could be just some aspect, or it might be none. But I just wrote it, it took time. So I put it here. Make what you will of it.
So:
My working hypothesis now is that whatever locations he seemed to favor at any time, those locations he had primarily familiarized himself with before the time period of attacks there.
When he attacks multiple places in Sacramento, he is (primarily) living elsewhere at that time. But he has done the preliminary work already when he was in Sacramento before. Let's add to this the detail how the central Carmichael seems untouched, like it was the center from where he attacked every direction around.
It might not mean that he would dwell in Carmichael at the time of the attacks, but that Carmichael was the main ground in the former time period when he became familiar with those other Sacramento areas. In my scenario, he was possibly in Carmichael then, and not at the time of the attacks. But for him to familiarize himself with certain areas in Sacramento, those other areas should have something to do with what he was doing in Carmichael. Let's say he worked in Carmichael, and the job offered him the opportunity to become familiar with his future attack locations. Then the job would have been something that probably extended to everywhere near his attacks in Sacramento. What the Rancho Cordova thing was, could be that the supposed job was more heavily directed to that RC area, granting him even more greater familiarity and comfort there.
If he chose his attack locations by this principle, by having been there just before but not anymore, then he would have already started picturing the schemes and scenarios around those areas even earlier on, when he was not attacking there. Let's take something like 4 months as a reference. If the attacks started in Rancho Cordova in June 1976, he could have been there more frequently and notably sometime around February of the same year. Then he could drive freely in his car around the neighborhood, perhaps take more risks in figuring the geography and residents out.
But then when he attacks in June, not many will think in retrospective about February, if nothing very extraordinary didn't happen then. They don't remember that car or that person, or at least they are not likely to make the connection due to the passage of time.
So, if he always attacked locations where his presence had been heavier just a little before but not at the moment, this would mean that (according to my theory) during the time he attacked around Sacramento, he was either in Davis or Modesto (because a little Davis-Modesto stretch is what he does after Sacramento). I would guess Modesto for couple of reasons.
First, Davis is obviously in good proximity to Sacramento. So if he was (for example) working in Carmichael at the time he familiarized himself with Sacramento overall, it could be that Davis belonged to the same package. So Sacramento and Davis would have been frequented by him in the same time period.
Second; when he deviates from the Sacramento attack-wise for the first time, it's in Stockton. Stockton is to the south, to the direction of Modesto. And additionally, let's say he had some relevant residual effects from a hypothetical shoulder injury still at the time he attacked Stockton. He had ceased the crimes for 3 months at this point, and because he was so "driven" with his actions, it's most likely that he would resume then just as soon as it was possible to reasonable degree. His hand (or whatever the obstacle, this is like a metaphor if nothing else) would still hurt but if he wasn't completely invalidated by it anymore, he could go through with it. Still the hand hurted somewhat badly, so it was a little uncomfortable to drive a car with it. He still wants to attack badly at this point, so he chooses Stockton which is a little closer to Modesto.
With Stockton he might have some familiarity outside of this principle (we don't even know if he could have originated from there), or he just goes to a place unfamiliar to him, although it's not comfortable. At least for some reason it's not comfortable for him to attack in Stockton, as evidenced by only two of his attacks having been committed there, 6 months apart from each other so it doesn't seem to be a pattern.
It must be noted that it might not have been a shoulder injury, but some other restriction as evidenced by his 3 month absence, still having some lingering effect after those 3 months. Effects that still weren't restrictive enough anymore at this point to obstruct him from "doing it again", somewhere a little closer (Stockton) to his dwelling place in Modesto.
When he's out of Sacramento for good, in April 1978, it is time for that back-and-forth stretch between Modesto and Davis. As he has stopped attacking in Sacramento, he has has also stopped residing and/or working in Modesto. Now he can put the "intel" he gathered while being in Modesto into use by attacking there.
But as said, he does alternate between Modesto and Davis at this point. Davis he probably knew well enough from his Sacramento days, and Modesto he knew from his Modesto days. But what could be his location now? Let's not forget the main point of this theory: him attacking where his presence had been more heavy and frequent somewhat recently, but not anymore. So that would make his dwelling place at the time of Modesto - Davis attack period somewhere along the line of: Concord - Walnut Creek - Danville - San Ramon - San Jose.
There is somewhat of a triangular relation between Davis and Modesto with ~Concord as the "arrowhead". From Concord he would go 'North - East' to Davis and 'South - East' to Modesto.
The Modesto - Davis is during the summer, and again that 3 month "leave of absence" after that, between July and October (so perhaps it wasn't a shoulder injury after all, on a side note). But when he is back at it in autumn - he attacks Concord, where he had (according to my theory) gathered intel beforehand during the same summer when he was attacking Modesto and Davis, and not many would think back to summer anymore in October, in connection to the crime at least - again, if nothing too extraordinary had occurred then.
But what to make of the San Ramon (let alone San Jose, Danville...) where he attacks just a little after Concord? I'll get to that a little further on.
So, the summer 1978 when he was attacking Modesto - Davis, at that time he had a heavier presence in somewhere around Concord.
After San Ramon, in the remaining two months of year 1978, there are two San Jose attacks a month apart. Then week after the second one in San Jose, he attacks Danville once. At this point he again ceases for 3 and 1/2 months.
After the period of absence, in March 1979 he's back to Rancho Cordova. He really seems to be attached to that place. Hard to say what to make of it, other than that he was already familiar with it. It all started there, so perhaps it was to his "liking" for some reason. Perhaps the victim(s) of this attack would be the one(s) with whom he really came into contact at the time period when he was working in and around Sacramento, before the first known attack. Or if not contact proper, at least he formed some private "connection" to her/them from distance. It's notable that these victims were 12-year old twins. Not the most usual profile for him. Now I'm just speculating and deviating from my main thought, but girls that age might be seen at school. And being twins, they might be registered to a greater degree by the person who came into contact with them.
Anyway. Only a couple of weeks after that single occurrence in Rancho Cordova, he attacks in Fremont. So he's again to the Bay Area. He returned back to the same direction where he had been towards and in the end of 1978. After this he does the double alternation between Walnut Creek and Danville, and then his attacks as the EAR (as opposed to proto-ONS or ONS) come to end, as he was finally confronted by the angry, awakened husband.
It's hard to say where he would have dwelled during the time beginning with the attacks in Concord and through the time of absence, because his next attack is in Rancho Cordova, but it's only a single occurrence in the middle of his Bay Area activities.
Going back to my theory: as I said, I'm not sure where to put him during the time period beginning in October '78 when he attacked Concord, all the way to the ending of the "series" in July '79 in Danville. Looking at the attacks successively, he goes from Concord to the south to San Ramon. So he "skips" Walnut Creek and Danville at this point. After San Ramon, even further to the south to San Jose. It's only one single attack after that back to north in Danville, which was in December 1978, end of the year, before the 3 and 1/2 month absence.
So when thinking about it a little more; he might have been to somewhere around 'Walnut Creek - Danville' at the time period when he attacked Concord to the north, and San Ramon + San Jose to the south.
So when he attacks Danville in the end of the 1978, he is probably dwelling closer to the attack location at the time of the attack than ever before or after. But he was probably just leaving at that point, so maybe he is ready to take such a risk. He is beginning his "leave of absence", after all. But this is the area where he will resurface the next summer.
Can't say where he would live at the time when he attacks Fremont after Ranco Cordova. RC is single occurrence, a deviation. In some sense Fremont too could be a deviation, although it's in the Bay Area close to where he has been residing anyway during 1978.
When he does the final double alternation between Walnut Creek and Danville, it is summer 1979. No school at least. I speculated that he had a heavier presence somewhere around 'Walnut Creek - Danville' during the time period beginning in October 1978, and that's autumn. It should be noted that (at least today?) some southern parts of Walnut Creek still belong to the same San Ramon unified school district as Danville.
But this would mean that at the time of attacking San Ramon in October 1978, he would dwell in the areas that belong to the same unified school district (again, today at least, so it could fall flat) as San Ramon. Maybe the subtlety to note here is that his San Ramon attack is committed in southern part of San Ramon, practically at the margins were the said school district seems to end (today). It was far enough for him. And after all, we already saw how he was more willing to take risks towards the end of 1978 in regards to his own relative vicinity to the attacks, because a little later he attacks Danville too, just as he's leaving the 'Walnut Creek - Danville' area in December 1978.
I don't know how the couple of San Jose attacks (Nov-Dec '78) should be viewed in this theory. I think it is a deviation somewhat like the Rancho Cordova in March '79 and Fremont in April '79 were. It could be that he gathered that little San Jose "intel" he needed during the 3 month absence between July - October of 1978. By the same token, the Fremont intel for the single attack there in April 1979 he probably gathered during the next absence period between December '78 - March '79.
So, after the absence and a little trip back to Rancho Cordova and then a single attack in Fremont, it is summer 1979 and he targets the area where his presence was heavier and more regular beginning in the autumn of 1978, until some point before summer of 1979. Remember, enough time has to pass so that he would be "forgotten". It's the summer of '79, they won't connect the attacks to anyone in the last third of '78, once again: if nothing too extraordinary had taken place.
But there is an unexpected turn with the husband waking up and confronting him, possibly even seeing some detail that could incriminate him. So he could have made changes to his life patterns in response to that turn of events, which are not predictable by this "pattern" I hypothesized. According to the pattern he "should" be somewhere around Goleta in the summer 1979 - but that drive is much, much longer than any of his drives before. So it's very probable that there was a change to the pattern and his dwelling place during the summer of 1979 can't be surmised by the supposed former pattern.
So, if I try to summarize this mess:
-For any area he attacks, he has had a heavier presence there sometime before that (not during the attacks) during which he has gathered much of his "intel"
-He probably spends more time in Modesto (at least at some point) during Sacramento attacks (although he must have at least taken a motel or something while in Sac)
-But it must be noted that the June 1976 - May 1977 period is more regular throughout the year, and doesn't have the same contrast between summer and autumn as the later attacks, so at this point his life is in some way different than it will be from May '77 on. I'd speculate that his work hours are lesser at this point.
-Somewhere around Concord is his "main base" during the Modesto - Davis period (summer 1978)
-When school has begun in 1978, his "base" is along Walnut Creek and Danville
-In the end of the year 1978 he is a little bold and attacks San Ramon, close to where he is dwelling at this point, but just at the very southern margins, almost exactly where the San Ramon unified school district ends (at least today)
-San Jose he probably became more familiar with in the absent period of July 1978 - October 1978, enough for him to commit the two attacks there Nov and Dec '78
-The boldness continues a little after that in December '78, as he attacks Danville for the first time. He is probably just in the process of leaving the area
-After 3 months of absence (March 1979) he makes a trip to Rancho Cordova because he has time for it before some other duties elsewhere put restrictions on him, although he's at this point living somewhere closer to the Bay Area, more to the south.
-That's why he attacks Fremont just couple of weeks later. He probably had done something in or around Fremont during that period of absence from December '78 to March '79 and gathered that little Fremont "intel"
-The summer of 1979 he attacks Walnut Creek and Danville, which he became familiar with as he was there regularly during the autumn 1978
-Can't say where he dwelled during the time between December - June '79 because his pattern obviously changes due to the final EAR attack proper, where the intended male victim confronted him. He makes some change to his pattern at this point, which ends up in him showing up far to the south in Goleta, and him becoming a murderer
...That's pretty much it. I don't know how confusing it might be. I think I must read it myself to see if it makes sense anymore to me either, now after writing it. There might be typos as well.