Ear Clusters & Timeline Anomalies

[ice]

Nov 2, 2014 1:23:11 GMT jigisup said:

Here is another angle on the timing of many of EAR-ONS’ attacks. In numerous cases he struck on the same day and/or date in the various years of his known activity. (data comes from Arch's timeline - http://www.ear-ons.com)

#17 Fri., Apr. 15, 1977, & #32 Fri., Apr. 14, 1978 (same day)
(#26) Sat., Oct. 29, 1977, & (#40) Sat., Oct. 28, 1978 (same day)
#37 Thurs., July 6, 1978, & (#49) Thurs., July 5, 1979 (same day)
If you include the Maggiore murders, Thurs., Feb. 2, 1978, & (Manuela Witthuhn murder) Thurs., Feb. 5, 1981 (same day)
#15 Fri., March 18, 1977 & #31 Fri., March 18, 1978 (same date and day)

#9 Wed., Nov. 10, 1976, & #26 Thurs., Nov. 10, 1977 (same date)
#28 Fri., Dec. 2, 1977, & #42 Sat., Dec. 2, 1978 (same date)
#24 Sat., Oct. 1, 1977, and (Goleta H/H botched attack) Mon., Oct. 1, 1979 (same date)

(#48) Mon., Apr. 6, 1978, & (#44) Thurs., Apr. 5, 1979 (almost same date)

#18 Tues., May 3, 1977, + #19 Thurs., May 5, 1977, & (Janelle Cruz murder) Sun., May 4, 1986 (close to same date)

#35 Sat., June 23, 1978 & #47 Mon., June 25, 1979 (same fourth weekend)

It has been speculated that the timing of the attacks at might be attributed to an external calendar (academic, military scheduling, agricultural). Could any of these day/dates hold any significance for EAR-ONS personally (birthday, anniversary of a personal or family tragedy, for example)?

Great analysis jigisup! This information is extremely interesting and should be sent to LE ASAP.

P.S. I haven't checked them all but March 18, 1978 was a Saturday not a Friday:

www.dayoftheweek.org/?m=March&d=18&y=1978&go=Go

[dbw]

Jan 19, 2014 1:07:45 GMT evaliant said:

Jan 16, 2014 23:24:06 GMT jigisup said:

I have been working on the construction angle for about three months. But I have not yet turned to the Modesto or Davis papers for info about new construction. When I get my information organized in a nice visual (like you have done with dates etc.) I will post it. Right now my hypothesis is EAR-ONS was learning the construction business, possibly as a relative of a builder.

Jig - your current hypothesis dovetails into some thoughts I've been mulling over for a few weeks.

What if EAR was the son of a successful developer or builder? He was in college at UC Davis or CSUS during the East Area phase 1 & 2. His knowledge of residential development from growing up in a household where he learned the business from his father provided him unique insight into neighborhood construction practices that he was able to exploit for his own perverse actions. Maybe he's taking city planning or development classes at school (punishment papers) to join in the family business upon graduation.

At the end of the East Area second phase he either graduates and joins the family business or he graduates and decides to pursue a masters degree (I'm thinking San Jose State University, but I haven't had enough time to conduct sufficient research). In between graduating from UC Davis or CSUS he travels to meet his father at a development/building site in Modesto to get some 'hands-on' learning experience.

He then relocates to the Bay Area to either attend graduate school (my preference) or begin working on an existing construction project (if it's the latter, the summer break at the end of the Bay Area phase is more difficult to explain). After the Bay Area phase he moves to SoCal to join his father 's development/builder company full time. The attacks decrease in frequency due to full time employment but escalate in violence because his fantasies are running rampant and unchecked. Add in the possibility of a relationship coinciding with the end of school and the decrease in frequency becomes even more understandable.

The glaring hole with this idea is the military angle. That's why I'm interested in the ROTC programs at UC Davis and CSUS. It would provide some familiarity with military protocol but also allow EAR never to have been enlisted.

Obviously this is all just crazy speculation...

Why not ARC? It's more central to EAR activity than CSUS.

[jigisup]

Nov 2, 2014 11:24:39 GMT ice said:

Nov 2, 2014 1:23:11 GMT jigisup said:

Here is another angle on the timing of many of EAR-ONS’ attacks. In numerous cases he struck on the same day and/or date in the various years of his known activity. (data comes from Arch's timeline - http://www.ear-ons.com)

#17 Fri., Apr. 15, 1977, & #32 Fri., Apr. 14, 1978 (same day)
(#26) Sat., Oct. 29, 1977, & (#40) Sat., Oct. 28, 1978 (same day)
#37 Thurs., July 6, 1978, & (#49) Thurs., July 5, 1979 (same day)
If you include the Maggiore murders, Thurs., Feb. 2, 1978, & (Manuela Witthuhn murder) Thurs., Feb. 5, 1981 (same day)
#15 Fri., March 18, 1977 & #31 Fri., March 18, 1978 (same date and day)

#9 Wed., Nov. 10, 1976, & #26 Thurs., Nov. 10, 1977 (same date)
#28 Fri., Dec. 2, 1977, & #42 Sat., Dec. 2, 1978 (same date)
#24 Sat., Oct. 1, 1977, and (Goleta H/H botched attack) Mon., Oct. 1, 1979 (same date)

(#48) Mon., Apr. 6, 1978, & (#44) Thurs., Apr. 5, 1979 (almost same date)

#18 Tues., May 3, 1977, + #19 Thurs., May 5, 1977, & (Janelle Cruz murder) Sun., May 4, 1986 (close to same date)

#35 Sat., June 23, 1978 & #47 Mon., June 25, 1979 (same fourth weekend)

It has been speculated that the timing of the attacks at might be attributed to an external calendar (academic, military scheduling, agricultural). Could any of these day/dates hold any significance for EAR-ONS personally (birthday, anniversary of a personal or family tragedy, for example)?

Great analysis jigisup! This information is extremely interesting and should be sent to LE ASAP.

P.S. I haven't checked them all but March 18, 1978 was a Saturday not a Friday:

www.dayoftheweek.org/?m=March&d=18&y=1978&go=Go

Thanks Ice -- I fixed it. 

[slumbergirl]

This may sound simplistic, but maybe he would retrieve a memento of a victim from his collection leading up to the anniversary of his attack on that victim. He may have gotten back into his fantasizing, then, acting out behavior all over again - thus, the attacks on the same day or date.

[Brad]

Nov 2, 2014 20:17:04 GMT slumbergirl said:

This may sound simplistic, but maybe he would retrieve a memento of a victim from his collection leading up to the anniversary of his attack on that victim. He may have gotten back into his fantasizing, then, acting out behavior all over again - thus, the attacks on the same day or date.

Makes perfect sense to me.

[portofleith]

Nov 3, 2014 0:25:46 GMT Brad said:

Nov 2, 2014 20:17:04 GMT slumbergirl said:

This may sound simplistic, but maybe he would retrieve a memento of a victim from his collection leading up to the anniversary of his attack on that victim. He may have gotten back into his fantasizing, then, acting out behavior all over again - thus, the attacks on the same day or date.

Makes perfect sense to me.

That is an interesting observation Slumber.

[V]

Jan 10, 2014 13:46:10 GMT portofleith said:

Jan 10, 2014 12:44:53 GMT ice said:

This is a good theory. Plus it ties in with the fact a lot of houses seemed to be empty when he was doing his prowling and the general lack of phone calls to the police by neighbours. 

I do not believe his attacks would have stopped for any reason in the summer, including employment or vacation(unless military and very restrictive).  That is why I continue to search old news archives for the summer breaks - where was he peeping, prowling and raping during those breaks?

Completely agree. 

[pendleton]

Don't forget incarceration and institutionalization.

[michravera]

Jan 7, 2014 22:35:26 GMT evaliant said:

Using Arch’s timeline I mapped all of the attacks mainly to give myself a better feel for the California layout and distance between attacks. I also graphed the timeline to see if anything jumped out at me. I don’t want to rehash the work Arch has done on the on the East Area crimes and the various comfort zones, but if you continue in the flash map vein for the rest of the attacks you’ll see that there were four main areas in the timeline:

June ’76 – May ‘77 East Area of SAC - 1 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook, Foothill Farms, & Orangevale) – Approx. 11 months

October ’77 - April ’78 – East Area of SAC -2 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook & Foothill Farms) – Approx. 7 months

Approx. 2 years spent in the East Area of SAC.

June ’78 – Early July ’78 – Davis/Modesto Split – Approx. 1 month

October ’78 – Early July ’79 – Bay Area & San Jose (includes Concord, San Ramon, Danville, Fremont, Walnut Creek, & San Jose) – Approx. 9 months

October ’79 – July ’81 – Southern California (includes Goleta, Ventura, Dana Point, & Irvine) – Approx. 1 year & 9 months

Below are the most interesting points that I noticed and, more importantly, the glaring anomalies in the timeline:

1. October was by far the most active month.

2. In May of ’77 he attacked 5 times – the most of any month, and the only year he attacked in the month of May.

3. Directly between the end of the East SAC 1 phase (May ’77) and beginning of the East SAC 2 phase (Oct ’77) he travels 70 miles south to hit Stockton (Sept ’77). Towards the end of the East SAC 2 phase, and a month after the Maggiore’s sketch is released he hits Stockton again (March ’78). What drew him south to Stockton out of the East Area in Sept ’77 and again 6 months later in March ’78?

4. In June and early July of ’78 EAR traveled between Modesto and Davis twice within a one to two day period. He attacked on Monday at 3:50am in Modesto and was in Davis to attack at 4:00am Wednesday. Later that month he was again in Modesto to attack Friday at 1:30am and was back in Davis for a Saturday morning attack at 3:00am. Why would he be traveling 100 miles back and forth within a one to two day period? What type of employment would require quick travel between Davis and Modesto?

5. The biggest anomaly in my opinion: Except for the beginning of the attacks that start in June of ’76 and escalate later that year, at no other point were there attacks in the middle of the summer months until ONS arrives in ‘80. It appears that during ’77, ’78 & ’79 he took a hiatus during a portion of the summer. What type of employment would require or allow a 2 month break? If he was not employed as some believe, why would he consistently break during the summer months?

One wonders that the summer breaks might have been that "he didn't feel like it". Maybe he was either feeling good in the summer time and didn't need to offend. Maybe he felt bad in the summer time and didn't want to devote the energy to offend. Maybe he formed or renewed relationships in the summertime that gave him other things to do. Maybe he had his cover person go away in the summer and didn't feel safe in offending. For instance, nude sunbathing was fairly common along the south side of the American river as soon as you got out of the direct shadows of Howe and Watt Aves and CSUS. Maybe he got or saw everything he needed to along the river during the summer. Maybe his girlfriend was away at college and came to Sacramento in the summer. Maybe the other way around. Maybe the May frenzy was "clearing out his backlog" before whatever event triggered the hiatus or was a reaction to a delay in that event.

As to the Stockton-Davis-Modesto connection: Maybe these attacks were victim-specific. Maybe he followed the victim instead of catching them in his net. I know that UoP, UC Davis, and CSU Stanislaus are located in those cities. Each also has at least one CCC. Maybe his cover person (girlfriend? roommate? source of transportation?) had specific business or was partying in those places, so looking for a connection to EAR/ONS himself might be a diversion.

EAR/ONS could easily have been with his friends at the Graduate and left "to meet Betty" gotten to wherever he was going to conduct the attack and arrived at his shared place at a time that was consistent with a booty call. If his cover person (or people) had late classes or worked in restaurants, no one would think anything of his sleeping until noon because they did it themselves. One semester at CSUS, I had no classes before 3PM and that was undergrad (but a few years later). The roommates would only have had to have seen Betty once and he wouldn't really have ever had to have a relationship. Some drunk chick hangs on you on the dance floor or at your table for a little while, you don't even need a phone number. Guys will believe anything and often not ask too many questions. Remember that this era was after the widespread use of the oral contraceptive and before the fear of AIDS (most of it before even the first reported AIDS case and all of it before the first reported heterosexual transmission on AIDS in the US). I know that I had my share of "10 minute 10 meter" sex in Sacramento at that time (or just after).

Maybe the reason for his escalation once he left Sacramento was that he no longer had a cover person and used the gun as a substitute. It would also be easier to deal with the aftermath of a murder, if you lived alone (or could be alone for long enough to deal with things when you needed to).

So, maybe when Law Enforcement is looking for a loner, they are barking up the wrong tree. Maybe he had help! Stash a bike and get a ride would work. Get a ride and escape on foot. Camp out and get a ride home. That would also explain why LE has never really tied a car to this guy. The car wasn't ever close enough to the attack to be tied to it, and maybe not even driven by EAR/ONS himself (at least in the Northern California phase).