Ear Clusters & Timeline Anomalies

[evaliant]

Using Arch’s timeline I mapped all of the attacks mainly to give myself a better feel for the California layout and distance between attacks. I also graphed the timeline to see if anything jumped out at me. I don’t want to rehash the work Arch has done on the on the East Area crimes and the various comfort zones, but if you continue in the flash map vein for the rest of the attacks you’ll see that there were four main areas in the timeline:

June ’76 – May ‘77 East Area of SAC - 1 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook, Foothill Farms, & Orangevale) – Approx. 11 months

October ’77 - April ’78 – East Area of SAC -2 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook & Foothill Farms) – Approx. 7 months

Approx. 2 years spent in the East Area of SAC.

June ’78 – Early July ’78 – Davis/Modesto Split – Approx. 1 month

October ’78 – Early July ’79 – Bay Area & San Jose (includes Concord, San Ramon, Danville, Fremont, Walnut Creek, & San Jose) – Approx. 9 months

October ’79 – July ’81 – Southern California (includes Goleta, Ventura, Dana Point, & Irvine) – Approx. 1 year & 9 months

Below are the most interesting points that I noticed and, more importantly, the glaring anomalies in the timeline:

1. October was by far the most active month.

2. In May of ’77 he attacked 5 times – the most of any month, and the only year he attacked in the month of May.

3. Directly between the end of the East SAC 1 phase (May ’77) and beginning of the East SAC 2 phase (Oct ’77) he travels 70 miles south to hit Stockton (Sept ’77). Towards the end of the East SAC 2 phase, and a month after the Maggiore’s sketch is released he hits Stockton again (March ’78). What drew him south to Stockton out of the East Area in Sept ’77 and again 6 months later in March ’78?

4. In June and early July of ’78 EAR traveled between Modesto and Davis twice within a one to two day period. He attacked on Monday at 3:50am in Modesto and was in Davis to attack at 4:00am Wednesday. Later that month he was again in Modesto to attack Friday at 1:30am and was back in Davis for a Saturday morning attack at 3:00am. Why would he be traveling 100 miles back and forth within a one to two day period? What type of employment would require quick travel between Davis and Modesto?

5. The biggest anomaly in my opinion: Except for the beginning of the attacks that start in June of ’76 and escalate later that year, at no other point were there attacks in the middle of the summer months until ONS arrives in ‘80. It appears that during ’77, ’78 & ’79 he took a hiatus during a portion of the summer. What type of employment would require or allow a 2 month break? If he was not employed as some believe, why would he consistently break during the summer months?

[mb]

Maybe he lived with a parent(s) who were teachers, or had younger siblings in school. During the summer months they may have left town to visit relatives, etc.

[thebutler]

or he could have been a college student and went home for the summer. he didnt attack at home because you dont poop where you sleep, so the saying goes.

[Deleted]

Anybody have a schedule for McGeorge school of Law?

[Deleted]

Those plaid bell bottoms are fly! Not! If my wardrobe was limited to those or anything similar...like the EAR, I too might wander around butt naked.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2014 13:41:53 GMT portofleith said:

Jan 8, 2014 10:10:06 GMT @playinem121 said:

Those plaid bell bottoms are fly! Not! If my wardrobe was limited to those or anything similar...like the EAR, I too might wander around butt naked.

You may have stumbled upon the reason for EAR walking into a couple homes sans pants.

Thats what I'm thinking too.  

[evaliant]

Jan 7, 2014 23:00:18 GMT portofleith said:

Jan 7, 2014 22:52:09 GMT thebutler said:

or he could have been a college student and went home for the summer. he didnt attack at home because you dont poop where you sleep, so the saying goes.

Class Schedule Theory CSUS





The attacks beginning with #22 , begin the significant shift in Ears attack patterns. #22 does seem to be one of his message attacks, since it was out of his usual hunting ground and near the office of the CB'er donating dentist.



Friday, May 13, was the last day of instruction at CSUS. That began his frenzy of May 77 attacks(#18-#21) and the big lull of summer of 1977.



Then the resumption of attacks commences, beginning with #23 ,the first Stockton 9/6/77, (exactly the first day of class at CSUS). Had he spent the summer working in the Stockton area or just pulled off the road en route from Visalia to study neighborhoods?



Then he is jumping all around Sacramento through attack #28(12/2/77). Then we have the lull that ends with resumption of activities that begin with #29- 1/28/78(CSUS class begins on Monday 1/30).



The Maggiores murder is 2/2/78



Attack #31(3/18/78) Stockton coincides with the last day of class at CSUS before Spring Break(3/18/78)- another drive home to Visalia?.



Then another big lull until June 5(Monday) -( last day of the academic year at CSUS was the Friday before- June 2nd.)



Attacks #33-#37(June 1978) parallell the May 1977 frenzy of attacks, except now he is flitting through Modesto and Davis. Had he talked his parents into an extension to look at graduate schools? Then another big lull until 10/7/1978 when he emerges in Concord with #38. I think the CC attacks were all randomized to distance himself from Sacramento. He could have still lived in Ranch Cordova at this point.



I am trying to imagine what kind of control parents could have over a college student returning home for breaks, that would stop this kind of compulsive behavior? 

If he was a student on the GI Bill or a shift worker, what made the summers and breaks that coincide with the CSUS calendar, different than other months?



I can't think of anything, except that either he worked out of state during the summers or was im a living situation that restricted his activity. If the latter is true, then I don't think he was living at home if he was VR during the ransacking stage- maybe he was farmed out to relatives?



The breaks are very puzzling.

Port – I find the CSUS theory very compelling for the first two years. It fits on a number of fronts. But I still have my reservations because there are some specific factors that would have to be true in order for it to work. For instance:

1.    I think he would have had to have come from a wealthy family that set him up with off campus housing where he could have lived alone. There’s no way he would have been able to live in a dorm or even with a roommate and not had his weird hours noticed and questioned, especially as the EAR crimes became more public. (To be fair, maybe this did happen and LE dismissed him as a suspect) <--- This also solves the question of why there were attacks in the summer of ’76. He moved to SAC and leased housing prior to the fall semester to prepare for school. Finally got away from the parents and was able to begin acting out his fantasies.

2.    Although the two Stockton attacks fit nicely with the CSUS schedule I think they’re difficult to explain. I have a hard time believing he randomly pulled over on the way to or from home. It differs from his MO of casing neighborhoods and stalking victims. They only make sense if he was living in or visiting Stockton, and unless there was some attraction there in the mid-seventies that I’m unaware of no college kid was using Stockton as spring break destination. And that’s the paradox. If his family lived in Stockton how was he so familiar with the East Area? Not enough time between high school graduation and the beginning of the attacks in June ’76 to become intimately familiar with the canals and levees. Split parents? How do you then explain the two month absences in the summer? The only thing I can think of is that he grew up in SAC and moved prior to CSUS.

3.    May is finals time. The frenzy in May ’77 would seem difficult to accomplish between studying and test taking, even if he was a gifted student. For the theory to fit, he would have had to at least passed some of those finals in order to re-enroll for the Fall semester in ’77.

4.    He has to have graduated, transferred or dropped out by the summer of ’78 otherwise the CC cluster doesn’t make sense. If he was not the Maggiore killer the murders and publication of the composite sketches must have been like a Christmas gift. How convenient. You’ll be graduating and moving out of the area in a month and LE are focused on a sketch that’s not you and makes it appear that the sketch and media attention drove you away from the area.

5.    If he graduated, transferred or dropped out by the summer of ’78 – the summer breaks of ’78 and ’79 are more difficult to explain.

6.    The Modesto/Davis cluster is perplexing no matter if this or another theory.

Does anyone know if the ROTC program at CSUS was there in ’76 and/or ’77?

[Drifter]

Terrific analytical skills, evaliant!

[rocker]

"Although the two Stockton attacks fit nicely with the CSUS schedule I think they’re difficult to explain. I have a hard time believing he randomly pulled over on the way to or from home. It differs from his MO of casing neighborhoods and stalking victims. They only make sense if he was living in or visiting Stockton, and unless there was some attraction there in the mid-seventies that I’m unaware of no college kid was using Stockton as spring break destination. And that’s the paradox. If his family lived in Stockton how was he so familiar with the East Area?"

I think he may have been visiting family. It would have given him opportunity to become familiar with the surroundings and select victims while providing plausible deniability in a pinch if questioned about his presence there.

[Relentless]

I think he was working on the Longs Drug Store that was being built in Stockton at that time.

[evaliant]

Jan 9, 2014 7:20:34 GMT Relentless said:

I think he was working on the Longs Drug Store that was being built in Stockton at that time.

While I certainly don't discount this possibility, the Stockton attacks feel like outliers to me; one-off attacks if you will. The attack groupings indicate that EAR had clusters or zones that he picked out and then offended within those zones for a sustained period of time. To me, they indicate a residence somewhere within the surrounding area.

The outliers to the zones are the singular Stockton attacks that occur in Sept ’77 and March ’78, and most probably the Davis/Modesto attacks in June ’78 – although these do seem to represent a cluster they occur within one month and EAR never returns.

Here is the timeline for the Stockton attacks:

From June ’76 through May ’77 EAR is consistently offending in the East Area hitting between one and two times a month, except for the frenzied activity in Oct & May. His last attack is the possible “message” attack near the CB patrol organizer’s home in May. Then he’s gone for 3 months. He reappears with the attack in Stockton in Sept ’77 and is back attacking in the East Area four weeks later on Oct 1st.

I think that 3 month break would be your window because he’s back in the East Area again beginning in Oct and consistently hitting once or twice a month (October being higher) through January ’78. If you believe he is the Maggiore shooter he’s there through at least the beginning of Feb.

Did the Long’s construction take place during that three month break from June ’77 – Sept ‘77?

The second window could be between the late January ’78 attack where he’s gone for all of February (discount Maggiore) and reappears in mid-March for the Stockton attack. He’s back in the East Area two and half weeks later for an attack on April 6th.  Seems like a short window.

It’s certainly possible he was living in Stockton and driving North into the East Area, but the consistency and grouping of the attacks indicate to me that he was living somewhere in the area.

[rocker]

Indeed, the pattern has an "East Area local guy at the time" feel to it.

[evaliant]

Jan 9, 2014 14:54:25 GMT portofleith said:

Jan 9, 2014 7:20:34 GMT Relentless said:

I think he was working on the Longs Drug Store that was being built in Stockton at that time.

The Davis, Modesto and Stockton neighborhoods all had plenty of new construction in the area.  The location of these attacks also bring to mind Erikdavid's recent post about driving north to south, perhaps even as far south to San Diego.

Irvine and Goleta share a common industry of military defense and high tech companies.

Evaliant-  I looked at Officer Training Corps stints as a possibility.  UC Davis did offer such courses. All UC Davis academic calendars are archived on their website, including their course offerings.  UC DAvis did offer classes that may have included courses pertinent to the neighborhood map found in the notebook.

There were many soldiers attending school on the post war GI Bill back then, so no parent may have been needed for income, if he was a veteran and a student.  He also could have received unemployment benefits.

The HH attack in Goleta occurred on the first day of the quarter starting at UCSB.  He may or may not have been a student.  College campuses and hospital parking lots are great locations to troll for attractive young women.

You’re right about the gi bill and being a student. He wouldn’t need parental support for housing. However, if he was a veteran the summer breaks don’t make as much sense. If he’s going home and living under supervision I can understand the cease in compulsion. What vet living on their own voluntarily spends two months away from their residence and hunting ground?

Outside of a student angle, what other possibilities exist that would take someone away for at least two months every summer for three consecutive years? If he was enlisted, were there mandatory training programs that ran in the summer months?

If he was a student I find the ROTC program a serious possibility. It checks a number of boxes suggested by the profile and noted in the attack descriptions (navigator flashlight, familiarity with the officers club, possible combat boots, possible familiarity with military tactics, etc.) but allows for him not to have been fully enlisted, which could explain his hesitation at certain confrontations. CSUS has an ROTC program. I do not know if it was there in ’76 and/or ’77, but if it was I sure would like to see a list of students that participated in the program for those years or maybe a class photo or two. The academic track described below certainly sounds like something EAR would find enjoyable:

“The Department offers two program tracks: (1) a purely academic track, and (2) a precommissioning track for those desiring a commission in the U.S. Army. The academic track entails no obligation to the military and is open to all students. Students pursuing the academic track do not wear a uniform or otherwise participate in extracurricular activities designed as part of the precommissioning process. Activities for all students include the Ranger club (a club designed for adventure activities such as rappel ling, white-water rafting, orienteering, and patrolling) and intramural sports teams.”

[anonymous]

Gone in the summer? Wealthy family (or just upper middle class) vacationing at second home in Goleta or Santa Barbara. I don't see a military connection. The military wasn't too popular back then. Do you think his profile would suggest he'd enlist? Or did the draft get him and he had a low number?

[rocker]

Jan 7, 2014 22:35:26 GMT evaliant said:

Using Arch’s timeline I mapped all of the attacks mainly to give myself a better feel for the California layout and distance between attacks. I also graphed the timeline to see if anything jumped out at me. I don’t want to rehash the work Arch has done on the on the East Area crimes and the various comfort zones, but if you continue in the flash map vein for the rest of the attacks you’ll see that there were four main areas in the timeline:

June ’76 – May ‘77 East Area of SAC - 1 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook, Foothill Farms, & Orangevale) – Approx. 11 months

October ’77 - April ’78 – East Area of SAC -2 (includes RC, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Glenbrook & Foothill Farms) – Approx. 7 months

Approx. 2 years spent in the East Area of SAC.

June ’78 – Early July ’78 – Davis/Modesto Split – Approx. 1 month

October ’78 – Early July ’79 – Bay Area & San Jose (includes Concord, San Ramon, Danville, Fremont, Walnut Creek, & San Jose) – Approx. 9 months

October ’79 – July ’81 – Southern California (includes Goleta, Ventura, Dana Point, & Irvine) – Approx. 1 year & 9 months

Below are the most interesting points that I noticed and, more importantly, the glaring anomalies in the timeline:

1. October was by far the most active month.

2. In May of ’77 he attacked 5 times – the most of any month, and the only year he attacked in the month of May.

3. Directly between the end of the East SAC 1 phase (May ’77) and beginning of the East SAC 2 phase (Oct ’77) he travels 70 miles south to hit Stockton (Sept ’77). Towards the end of the East SAC 2 phase, and a month after the Maggiore’s sketch is released he hits Stockton again (March ’78). What drew him south to Stockton out of the East Area in Sept ’77 and again 6 months later in March ’78?

4. In June and early July of ’78 EAR traveled between Modesto and Davis twice within a one to two day period. He attacked on Monday at 3:50am in Modesto and was in Davis to attack at 4:00am Wednesday. Later that month he was again in Modesto to attack Friday at 1:30am and was back in Davis for a Saturday morning attack at 3:00am. Why would he be traveling 100 miles back and forth within a one to two day period? What type of employment would require quick travel between Davis and Modesto?

5. The biggest anomaly in my opinion: Except for the beginning of the attacks that start in June of ’76 and escalate later that year, at no other point were there attacks in the middle of the summer months until ONS arrives in ‘80. It appears that during ’77, ’78 & ’79 he took a hiatus during a portion of the summer. What type of employment would require or allow a 2 month break? If he was not employed as some believe, why would he consistently break during the summer months?

Would the "break during the summer months" be consistent with employment or attendance at a summer camp?