Geographic Profiling Results

[hhunter4]

In Michele McNamara's book, I'll Be Gone in the Dark One Woman's Search for the Golden State Killer, there is a section about geographic profiling (pages 296-300), that included plots of where the EAR was likely to have lived at the time of the attacks in the east Sacramento area. The theory is that a serial offender doesn't want to strike too close to home for fear of drawing LE attention that could identify him. The offender will use misdirection such as striking on opposite sides of his buffer zone to keep LE from zeroing in on his own neighborhood, and to avoid areas experiencing increased surveillance due to recent attacks. The attacks may occur farther away over time, but the buffer zone should remain fairly stable. The end result is to identify a theoretical geographical anchor point to be used in searching for the offender. In the book the author discusses methods used by Paul Holes and then plotted an anchor point near the intersection of Dewey Drive and Madison Avenue in Carmichael, CA. She also plotted an anchor point developed by Kim Rossmo, a prominent geographic profiler, as located near the intersection of Coyle Avenue and Millburn Street in Carmichael CA., about a half mile northwest of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes. At face value it doesn't seem like a good profile if JJD was living in Auburn, CA, some 30 miles away. JJD did move to a house in Roseville in July, 1977 located about 4 miles NNE of the two plotted anchor points, but it wasn't until after 22 attacks had already been made by the offender. However, there was one person important to the search living within a third of a mile of both anchor points. JJD'S former fiance, Bonnie, married another man late in 1972 and lived with him in an apartment in Sacramento for a few years. In 1976 and 1977 the local directory listed Bonnie and her husband as living at a house on Hesper Way in Carmichael, CA. This was the period when the attacks started and were the most frequent in the East Sacramento area. The home is located within a third of a mile WNW of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes, and within a third of a mile SSE of the anchor point identified by Kim Rossmo. If a buffer zone is an area of primary importance to an offender, and one that he doesn't want discovered, how is it that Bonnie occupied the buffer zone and not JJD? JJD always lived well outside of the buffer zone and the attack areas. He probably avoided attacking too close to Bonnie's house for fear of being named by her or her husband as a potential suspect. But he might have been drawn to her general area of East Sacramento because he was incapable of completely letting go of his former relationship with her. Out of the first 20 attacks, the offender struck 8 times within 2 miles of Bonnie's residence. Five of those eight attacks occurred within a mile of Bonnie's residence, and the closest attack was made within a half mile of her residence. I was one who discounted the emphasis on Bonnie as a cause for the attacks, but it would seem from the above that JJD may have had more of an obsession about her or the breakup than I realized before. Perhaps he was attempting to instill fear in Bonnie about living in the area. I would be interested to know what people think of geographic profiling in this case. Was it useful, or could it have been more useful if approached differently? Does the fact that Bonnie lived in or near the predicted buffer zone have any meaning, or was it just a coincidence?

[olympias]

May 15, 2018 4:31:59 GMT hhunter4 said:

In Michele McNamara's book, I'll Be Gone in the Dark One Woman's Search for the Golden State Killer, there is a section about geographic profiling (pages 296-300), that included plots of where the EAR was likely to have lived at the time of the attacks in the east Sacramento area. The theory is that a serial offender doesn't want to strike too close to home for fear of drawing LE attention that could identify him. The offender will use misdirection such as striking on opposite sides of his buffer zone to keep LE from zeroing in on his own neighborhood, and to avoid areas experiencing increased surveillance due to recent attacks. The attacks may occur farther away over time, but the buffer zone should remain fairly stable. The end result is to identify a theoretical geographical anchor point to be used in searching for the offender. In the book the author discusses methods used by Paul Holes and then plotted an anchor point near the intersection of Dewey Drive and Madison Avenue in Carmichael, CA. She also plotted an anchor point developed by Kim Rossmo, a prominent geographic profiler, as located near the intersection of Coyle Avenue and Millburn Street in Carmichael CA., about a half mile northwest of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes. At face value it doesn't seem like a good profile if JJD was living in Auburn, CA, some 30 miles away. JJD did move to a house in Roseville in July, 1977 located about 4 miles NNE of the two plotted anchor points, but it wasn't until after 22 attacks had already been made by the offender. However, there was one person important to the search living within a third of a mile of both anchor points. JJD'S former fiance, Bonnie, married another man late in 1972 and lived with him in an apartment in Sacramento for a few years. In 1976 and 1977 the local directory listed Bonnie and her husband as living at a house on Hesper Way in Carmichael, CA. This was the period when the attacks started and were the most frequent in the East Sacramento area. The home is located within a third of a mile WNW of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes, and within a third of a mile SSE of the anchor point identified by Kim Rossmo. If a buffer zone is an area of primary importance to an offender, and one that he doesn't want discovered, how is it that Bonnie occupied the buffer zone and not JJD? JJD always lived well outside of the buffer zone and the attack areas. He probably avoided attacking too close to Bonnie's house for fear of being named by her or her husband as a potential suspect. But he might have been drawn to her general area of East Sacramento because he was incapable of completely letting go of his former relationship with her. Out of the first 20 attacks, the offender struck 8 times within 2 miles of Bonnie's residence. Five of those eight attacks occurred within a mile of Bonnie's residence, and the closest attack was made within a half mile of her residence. I was one who discounted the emphasis on Bonnie as a cause for the attacks, but it would seem from the above that JJD may have had more of an obsession about her or the breakup than I realized before. Perhaps he was attempting to instill fear in Bonnie about living in the area. I would be interested to know what people think of geographic profiling in this case. Was it useful, or could it have been more useful if approached differently? Does the fact that Bonnie lived in or near the predicted buffer zone have any meaning, or was it just a coincidence?

stopped reading after the first three words. 

[shayne78]

I feel geo profiling is an interesting science that can be helpful and has been. When a perp such as JJD seemingly is always on the move it is hard to pin a guy down to living in one particular area based on anchor points. That being said, it is absolutely unbelievable that this guy was apprehended in what could have possibly been a geographical center of his canon of crimes. Unreal! Many a time, people on this forum had said this guy must have been raised and lived in or around citrus heights.

[Deleted]

Interesting to look at the Eastern Sacreamento attack locations knowing that EAR could have been travelling from the East on the 80. A few attacks are south of the American River which gives two real routes back to the 80 over bridges, Watts and Sunrise unless the EAR goes west on 50 and picks up the 80 at Alhambra Triangle. But even the attacks north of the River tend to be deep into places like Carmichael. I guess this could have been another misleading strategy to make LE focus on the 50.

[marinerdna]

May 15, 2018 4:34:38 GMT olympias said:

May 15, 2018 4:31:59 GMT hhunter4 said:

In Michele McNamara's book, I'll Be Gone in the Dark One Woman's Search for the Golden State Killer, there is a section about geographic profiling (pages 296-300), that included plots of where the EAR was likely to have lived at the time of the attacks in the east Sacramento area. The theory is that a serial offender doesn't want to strike too close to home for fear of drawing LE attention that could identify him. The offender will use misdirection such as striking on opposite sides of his buffer zone to keep LE from zeroing in on his own neighborhood, and to avoid areas experiencing increased surveillance due to recent attacks. The attacks may occur farther away over time, but the buffer zone should remain fairly stable. The end result is to identify a theoretical geographical anchor point to be used in searching for the offender. In the book the author discusses methods used by Paul Holes and then plotted an anchor point near the intersection of Dewey Drive and Madison Avenue in Carmichael, CA. She also plotted an anchor point developed by Kim Rossmo, a prominent geographic profiler, as located near the intersection of Coyle Avenue and Millburn Street in Carmichael CA., about a half mile northwest of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes. At face value it doesn't seem like a good profile if JJD was living in Auburn, CA, some 30 miles away. JJD did move to a house in Roseville in July, 1977 located about 4 miles NNE of the two plotted anchor points, but it wasn't until after 22 attacks had already been made by the offender. However, there was one person important to the search living within a third of a mile of both anchor points. JJD'S former fiance, Bonnie, married another man late in 1972 and lived with him in an apartment in Sacramento for a few years. In 1976 and 1977 the local directory listed Bonnie and her husband as living at a house on Hesper Way in Carmichael, CA. This was the period when the attacks started and were the most frequent in the East Sacramento area. The home is located within a third of a mile WNW of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes, and within a third of a mile SSE of the anchor point identified by Kim Rossmo. If a buffer zone is an area of primary importance to an offender, and one that he doesn't want discovered, how is it that Bonnie occupied the buffer zone and not JJD? JJD always lived well outside of the buffer zone and the attack areas. He probably avoided attacking too close to Bonnie's house for fear of being named by her or her husband as a potential suspect. But he might have been drawn to her general area of East Sacramento because he was incapable of completely letting go of his former relationship with her. Out of the first 20 attacks, the offender struck 8 times within 2 miles of Bonnie's residence. Five of those eight attacks occurred within a mile of Bonnie's residence, and the closest attack was made within a half mile of her residence. I was one who discounted the emphasis on Bonnie as a cause for the attacks, but it would seem from the above that JJD may have had more of an obsession about her or the breakup than I realized before. Perhaps he was attempting to instill fear in Bonnie about living in the area. I would be interested to know what people think of geographic profiling in this case. Was it useful, or could it have been more useful if approached differently? Does the fact that Bonnie lived in or near the predicted buffer zone have any meaning, or was it just a coincidence?

stopped reading after the first three words. 

@paragraph breaks

[bluetailfly]

May 15, 2018 6:31:30 GMT marinerdna said:

May 15, 2018 4:34:38 GMT olympias said:

stopped reading after the first three words. 

@paragraph breaks

You both might want to stop tooting your punctuation bigotry and read what was posted. It actually turned out to be pretty interesting.

[eastcoast2]

As of right now, my problem with comparing the geographic profiling that was done with reality is that we still have too many gaps in his actual living situation throughout the years. Maybe once it becomes clear as to where he lived when , the comparison will be more meaningful.

[zog]

May 15, 2018 12:16:19 GMT eastcoast2 said:

As of right now, my problem with comparing the geographic profiling that was done with reality is that we still have too many gaps in his actual living situation throughout the years. Maybe once it becomes clear as to where he lived when , the comparison will be more meaningful.

I think also the data was off. If they were to add in the other Break-ins from VR, the geographic profile will be much more accurate.

[V]

May 15, 2018 4:31:59 GMT hhunter4 said:

In Michele McNamara's book, I'll Be Gone in the Dark One Woman's Search for the Golden State Killer, there is a section about geographic profiling (pages 296-300), that included plots of where the EAR was likely to have lived at the time of the attacks in the east Sacramento area. The theory is that a serial offender doesn't want to strike too close to home for fear of drawing LE attention that could identify him. The offender will use misdirection such as striking on opposite sides of his buffer zone to keep LE from zeroing in on his own neighborhood, and to avoid areas experiencing increased surveillance due to recent attacks. The attacks may occur farther away over time, but the buffer zone should remain fairly stable. The end result is to identify a theoretical geographical anchor point to be used in searching for the offender. In the book the author discusses methods used by Paul Holes and then plotted an anchor point near the intersection of Dewey Drive and Madison Avenue in Carmichael, CA. She also plotted an anchor point developed by Kim Rossmo, a prominent geographic profiler, as located near the intersection of Coyle Avenue and Millburn Street in Carmichael CA., about a half mile northwest of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes. At face value it doesn't seem like a good profile if JJD was living in Auburn, CA, some 30 miles away. JJD did move to a house in Roseville in July, 1977 located about 4 miles NNE of the two plotted anchor points, but it wasn't until after 22 attacks had already been made by the offender. However, there was one person important to the search living within a third of a mile of both anchor points. JJD'S former fiance, Bonnie, married another man late in 1972 and lived with him in an apartment in Sacramento for a few years. In 1976 and 1977 the local directory listed Bonnie and her husband as living at a house on Hesper Way in Carmichael, CA. This was the period when the attacks started and were the most frequent in the East Sacramento area. The home is located within a third of a mile WNW of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes, and within a third of a mile SSE of the anchor point identified by Kim Rossmo. If a buffer zone is an area of primary importance to an offender, and one that he doesn't want discovered, how is it that Bonnie occupied the buffer zone and not JJD? JJD always lived well outside of the buffer zone and the attack areas. He probably avoided attacking too close to Bonnie's house for fear of being named by her or her husband as a potential suspect. But he might have been drawn to her general area of East Sacramento because he was incapable of completely letting go of his former relationship with her. Out of the first 20 attacks, the offender struck 8 times within 2 miles of Bonnie's residence. Five of those eight attacks occurred within a mile of Bonnie's residence, and the closest attack was made within a half mile of her residence. I was one who discounted the emphasis on Bonnie as a cause for the attacks, but it would seem from the above that JJD may have had more of an obsession about her or the breakup than I realized before. Perhaps he was attempting to instill fear in Bonnie about living in the area. I would be interested to know what people think of geographic profiling in this case. Was it useful, or could it have been more useful if approached differently? Does the fact that Bonnie lived in or near the predicted buffer zone have any meaning, or was it just a coincidence?

Paragraphs are a friend to us all. 

[hhunter4]

Got it! My initial post was a paragraph that ran on and on. Next time I'll break it up into more manageable sized paragraphs.

Still, I think it is interesting that Bonnie turned up living close to the buffer zone and anchor points identified in Mrs. McNamara's book. Maybe the geographic profilers focused too much on the buffer zone being the offender's place of residence instead of a work address, or an address of someone else meaningful in the offender's life.

[typicallynot]

This is extremely interesting considering the Bonnie angle.

This could indicate he was offending after having spent time stalking Bonnie. It could explain why Bonnie’s home was closer to what would/should be his theoretical home base.

[jen75]

I have just now been looking up the addresses where the attacks took place on google earth. I just wish I knew how he chose his victims. At least 2 of them (Domingez and Cruz) lived on cul-de-sacs. It looks like a cul-de-sac would be harder to escape from if needed.

[justiceseeker2018]

Why do people have to act so righteous about a lack of paragraphs or typo's on the internet? Jesus Christ, get over yourself. The OP shared some really excellent thoughts. OP, I think you hit the nail on the head with your deductions. This is not likely coincidental. For years people pinpointed Carmichael as a possible 'hot spot' and wondered why EAR avoided it. This is a great possible answer, and it's also likely JJD was trying to strike fear in Bonnie.

[relish]

May 15, 2018 4:34:38 GMT olympias said:

May 15, 2018 4:31:59 GMT hhunter4 said:

In Michele McNamara's book, I'll Be Gone in the Dark One Woman's Search for the Golden State Killer, there is a section about geographic profiling (pages 296-300), that included plots of where the EAR was likely to have lived at the time of the attacks in the east Sacramento area. The theory is that a serial offender doesn't want to strike too close to home for fear of drawing LE attention that could identify him. The offender will use misdirection such as striking on opposite sides of his buffer zone to keep LE from zeroing in on his own neighborhood, and to avoid areas experiencing increased surveillance due to recent attacks. The attacks may occur farther away over time, but the buffer zone should remain fairly stable. The end result is to identify a theoretical geographical anchor point to be used in searching for the offender. In the book the author discusses methods used by Paul Holes and then plotted an anchor point near the intersection of Dewey Drive and Madison Avenue in Carmichael, CA. She also plotted an anchor point developed by Kim Rossmo, a prominent geographic profiler, as located near the intersection of Coyle Avenue and Millburn Street in Carmichael CA., about a half mile northwest of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes. At face value it doesn't seem like a good profile if JJD was living in Auburn, CA, some 30 miles away. JJD did move to a house in Roseville in July, 1977 located about 4 miles NNE of the two plotted anchor points, but it wasn't until after 22 attacks had already been made by the offender. However, there was one person important to the search living within a third of a mile of both anchor points. JJD'S former fiance, Bonnie, married another man late in 1972 and lived with him in an apartment in Sacramento for a few years. In 1976 and 1977 the local directory listed Bonnie and her husband as living at a house on Hesper Way in Carmichael, CA. This was the period when the attacks started and were the most frequent in the East Sacramento area. The home is located within a third of a mile WNW of the anchor point identified by Paul Holes, and within a third of a mile SSE of the anchor point identified by Kim Rossmo. If a buffer zone is an area of primary importance to an offender, and one that he doesn't want discovered, how is it that Bonnie occupied the buffer zone and not JJD? JJD always lived well outside of the buffer zone and the attack areas. He probably avoided attacking too close to Bonnie's house for fear of being named by her or her husband as a potential suspect. But he might have been drawn to her general area of East Sacramento because he was incapable of completely letting go of his former relationship with her. Out of the first 20 attacks, the offender struck 8 times within 2 miles of Bonnie's residence. Five of those eight attacks occurred within a mile of Bonnie's residence, and the closest attack was made within a half mile of her residence. I was one who discounted the emphasis on Bonnie as a cause for the attacks, but it would seem from the above that JJD may have had more of an obsession about her or the breakup than I realized before. Perhaps he was attempting to instill fear in Bonnie about living in the area. I would be interested to know what people think of geographic profiling in this case. Was it useful, or could it have been more useful if approached differently? Does the fact that Bonnie lived in or near the predicted buffer zone have any meaning, or was it just a coincidence?

stopped reading after the first three words. 

Bragging about fear. Congratulations.

[jmm0099]

I'm sorry, I didn't mean tot he derail this thread. It's an interesting point. Maybe he avoided her area because she'd recognize him while prowling?