Amazing Profilers that got it right

[lockedout]

Jun 12, 2018 3:57:15 GMT cleopatra said:

Jun 11, 2018 20:22:25 GMT fasterpussycat said:

What is the evidence that these kinds of serial offenders will usually continue to offend until captured, killed or incapacitated?
I’m beginning to think that’s a myth that started with Ted Buddy era of profiling and has just been repeated for the last 40-years.
So far, the ones that have gotten away with their crimes for a very long time, and let’s say his sprees lasted from 10-15 years, and somehow managed to never get caught, seem to burn out on raping and killing much like many of us burn out on a sports hobby, and then because of a temporary life change, we give up the hobby and never go back to it.

Rape along with Cold Blooded Murder and bludgeoning people to death  even after they are dead, can hardly be considered a hobby or can hardly be compared to hobbies.  Breathing is not a hobby and we do it to survive.  Sleeping and eating are essential parts of our existence.  We need to do those things.

These heinous acts committed by these types of criminal psychopaths are part of who they are.  They didn't become interested in killing, tried it, liked it, and decided to have it in their lives as a hobby or sport.  They were born killers who were most likely stomping on butterflies and lady bugs as toddlers and liked the way it made them feel.  They tortured and killed animals as children to satisfy their urges to hurt and take life.  As they matured, they planned their future victims to be people.

When I first read DeAmbrosia's 15 page profile, I knew she was right on target.  

I think that's a moot point though you make Cleopatra: countless studies have been conducted concerning the whole nature v nurture aspect, and as far I know I don't think any firm conclusions have been drawn. I think the general agreement, though, has been that while some people are indeed predisposed to kill, others are slowly drawn into it via a combination of circumstances and factors. For all we know, JJD falls into the latter group. 

As for killing as a 'hobby' - as distasteful as it sounds, we have to recognize that for some people it genuinely is. I'm neither a scientist nor a psychologist, and as a 'normal' human being with a standard moral compass I find the idea of killing for a hobby both repugnant and inexplicable. Unfortunately though, that's one of the dark realities of life - some do. Denying such doesn't help in improving our knowledge of how these people function.

(not entirely sure that all makes sense, the whole case has left me bewildered!!)  

[cleopatra]

Jun 12, 2018 12:16:18 GMT lockedout said:

Jun 12, 2018 3:57:15 GMT cleopatra said:

Rape along with Cold Blooded Murder and bludgeoning people to death  even after they are dead, can hardly be considered a hobby or can hardly be compared to hobbies.  Breathing is not a hobby and we do it to survive.  Sleeping and eating are essential parts of our existence.  We need to do those things.

These heinous acts committed by these types of criminal psychopaths are part of who they are.  They didn't become interested in killing, tried it, liked it, and decided to have it in their lives as a hobby or sport.  They were born killers who were most likely stomping on butterflies and lady bugs as toddlers and liked the way it made them feel.  They tortured and killed animals as children to satisfy their urges to hurt and take life.  As they matured, they planned their future victims to be people.

When I first read DeAmbrosia's 15 page profile, I knew she was right on target.  

I think that's a moot point though you make Cleopatra: countless studies have been conducted concerning the whole nature v nurture aspect, and as far I know I don't think any firm conclusions have been drawn. I think the general agreement, though, has been that while some people are indeed predisposed to kill, others are slowly drawn into it via a combination of circumstances and factors. For all we know, JJD falls into the latter group. 

As for killing as a 'hobby' - as distasteful as it sounds, we have to recognize that for some people it genuinely is. I'm neither a scientist nor a psychologist, and as a 'normal' human being with a standard moral compass I find the idea of killing for a hobby both repugnant and inexplicable. Unfortunately though, that's one of the dark realities of life - some do. Denying such doesn't help in improving our knowledge of how these people function.

(not entirely sure that all makes sense, the whole case has left me bewildered!!)  

"I think the general agreement, though, has been that while some people are indeed predisposed to kill, others are slowly drawn into it via a combination of circumstances and factors"

The ones who are predisposed to kill are born that way and they are psychopaths.
The ones who become that way via circumstances in their environments and social upbringings are sociopaths.

[cleopatra]

Jun 12, 2018 10:18:06 GMT gaviota said:

Her profile is a joke. I think what it calls into play is the utter nonsense of FBI profiles.

😲☹🤐

[mosswilliams]

D'Ambrosia's original profile on EAR/ONS was that he was dead or in prison, explaining he would not be able to stop killing. She was 100% wrong. She changed her profile to say he was alive and well after the FBI said there was an 85% chance he was still alive.

Her profile was vague and was similar to many other serial killer profiles, white, would continue to kill until caught.

And now I read how accurate she was? LMAO!!!

[femto]

Very general with not much substance and plenty of things wrong. Not to fault her for her work, but many here could have done a similiar profile of him.

[lockedout]

Jun 12, 2018 12:54:17 GMT cleopatra said:

Jun 12, 2018 12:16:18 GMT lockedout said:

I think that's a moot point though you make Cleopatra: countless studies have been conducted concerning the whole nature v nurture aspect, and as far I know I don't think any firm conclusions have been drawn. I think the general agreement, though, has been that while some people are indeed predisposed to kill, others are slowly drawn into it via a combination of circumstances and factors. For all we know, JJD falls into the latter group. 

As for killing as a 'hobby' - as distasteful as it sounds, we have to recognize that for some people it genuinely is. I'm neither a scientist nor a psychologist, and as a 'normal' human being with a standard moral compass I find the idea of killing for a hobby both repugnant and inexplicable. Unfortunately though, that's one of the dark realities of life - some do. Denying such doesn't help in improving our knowledge of how these people function.

(not entirely sure that all makes sense, the whole case has left me bewildered!!)  

"I think the general agreement, though, has been that while some people are indeed predisposed to kill, others are slowly drawn into it via a combination of circumstances and factors"

The ones who are predisposed to kill are born that way and they are psychopaths.
The ones who become that way via circumstances in their environments and social upbringings are sociopaths.

Touche!

Let me dwell and construct a reply, I've had a couple of after-worky drinks so don't trust myself to reply in the eloquent manner which your post requires! 

[relish]

Jun 12, 2018 15:42:35 GMT mosswilliams said:

D'Ambrosia's original profile on EAR/ONS was that he was dead or in prison, explaining he would not be able to stop killing. She was 100% wrong. She changed her profile to say he was alive and well after the FBI said there was an 85% chance he was still alive.

Her profile was vague and was similar to many other serial killer profiles, white, would continue to kill until caught.

And now I read how accurate she was? LMAO!!!

Agreed. Difficult to believe this is a serious thread. D'Amobrosia in the original profile from 1998 also said that EAR would not have been married during the attacks, and would not be able to sustain a relationship.

The profiles always include obvious material that basically can't be wrong. But she takes it to a new level. 

[htx]

Jun 12, 2018 5:28:33 GMT fasterpussycat said:

Jun 12, 2018 3:57:15 GMT cleopatra said:

Rape along with Cold Blooded Murder and bludgeoning people to death  even after they are dead, can hardly be considered a hobby or can hardly be compared to hobbies.  Breathing is not a hobby and we do it to survive.  Sleeping and eating are essential parts of our existence.  We need to do those things.

These heinous acts committed by these types of criminal psychopaths are part of who they are.  They didn't become interested in killing, tried it, liked it, and decided to have it in their lives as a hobby or sport.  They were born killers who were most likely stomping on butterflies and lady bugs as toddlers and liked the way it made them feel.  They tortured and killed animals as children to satisfy their urges to hurt and take life.  As they matured, they planned their future victims to be people.

When I first read DeAmbrosia's 15 page profile, I knew she was right on target.  

To our man EARs and ONS, this could very well be no more emotionally engaging than an obsessive hobby might be.
He’s not thinking like we are, but he’s also thinking differently between his incarnations as the VR, the EAR, and then ONS.
He goes from prowling, to rape with very little murder and no killing of his sexual assault victims, to murder with rape almost being an afterthought. I think by the time of Witthum, Domingo/Sanchez attacks he wasn’t getting what he wanted anymore, and certainly by the Cruz attack that flickering candle of satisfaction in ONS went out.
He didn’t like ‘his thing’ anymore.

This, exactly. That's why I'm more inclined than not to believe that he didn't kill again after Cruz. His crimes were all rooted in his own sexual pleasure; I think as he aged, and had kids of his own to raise, his libido diminished, and the satisfaction he gained from his crimes began to be outweighed by the worry of being caught.

[Agent99 aka Sandia]

Jun 12, 2018 2:16:43 GMT Any of N said:

I don't know, Sandia. It's kind-of hard to brag on the profilers when their actual profiles didn't do much good. Joe DeAngelo wasn't even on anyone's radar until Paul Holes combined DNA with genealogy records. Nothing else helped worth a lick.

A lot of stuff in the profiles was standard for serial rapists/killers -- started out as a voyeur, advanced to home break-ins, sexual burglary, and so on. Likely had a criminal record. A lot of the rest was straightforward deduction based on the case files -- the offender was neat and tidy and owned a reliable car. He was lso smart and knew a thing or two about what he was doing.

A really and truly insightful profile would have included the following:

• In his late 20's to early 30's in June of '76.
• Played the role of a younger offender.
  
• Did not live within the crime zones but rather commuted from nearby communities.
  
• Very likely a cop or a former cop.
• Held a full-time job during most of the NorCal crime spree.
• Deliberately feigned the impression of elaborate stalking and prowling.
  
• Lost his full-time job shortly before the SoCal murders.
  

Mind you, I'm not saying it was possible to create such an accurate profile. Just that this is the sort of thing that would merit a bronze statue or two. DeAngelo might very well have been caught years ago if only we had been convinced he was a LEO.

I do recall that you yourself pushed the cop theory, Sandia. To that I say, kudos, and take a well-deserved bow. More well-deserved than the profilers, by the way.

Well, what you should keep in mind is that they are not the ones that are going to investigate, they are putting out a profile to help the police and the public. While some things might seem obvious to people that follow true crime, people in the general public that don't pay attention to such things might think that the killer would look deranged or as Holes said "the troll under the bridge"
They are predicting based on other crimes and criminals and psychology.  Nobody can expect they will be 100% right.  But I feel they did an amazing job.

I listened to a person that says he is a profiler on a podcast and "everything" he said was just stating what was already known of DeAngelo, no predictions. These profilers did not know who he was at the time.

I liked that D'Ambrosia was not trying to hedge her bets and came out firmly in her opinions and they turned out to be right. He was alive and living among us. He was the Visalia Ransacker. But is she right in that she does not believe he would have stopped?  I fear she is.   There she disagrees with O'Toole. 

O'Toole is sure he would have kept his trophies and I really hope she turns out to be right on that one.

Hazelwood predicting that the killer would lose weight and find a way to leave town. DeAngelo lost weight and left town after McGowen was shot. The losing weight really threw everyone off because of the discrepancy in descriptions.

I did bring up that he was a cop to Larry Pool and others plus on the board but I figured I'd have to be wrong because LE was very aware of that possibility and were looking for it and I assumed that they would find him if he was. How wrong I was about that!
Hindsight is 20/20 but I have to say that I think some in LE were blind!

I did point out what Hazelwood mentioned on several occasions. LE should have listened to Hazelwood!
(He would have lost weight and find an excuse to leave town)
p.s.  However, DeAngelo was very smart in that he did not quit the Exeter PD for 8 1/2  months.  McGowen 12/10/75.  DeAngelo quit Exeter PD on 8/25/76. 
AND...Before he quit he was attacking in Sacramento EAR #1 6/18/76 and EAR #2 7/17/76. 
That was clever because if LE thought the EAR was the VR, he was still in Exeter on EAR #1 and #2 and he traveled a bit  for the other crimes from Auburn.

In my second follow up post, I listed other things in the profile that were spot on including his knowledge of police investigative methods and evidence gathering techniques.

This guy being trained as a cop, knowing about police procedures allowed him to throw out so many red herrings that it's amazing that they nailed so many points ...and they did.  

[zebra]

Jun 11, 2018 3:06:44 GMT Agent99 aka Sandia said:

 
...
ROY HAZELWOOD, Profiler (another case with parallels to this case):

Roy Hazelwood said “peepers” choose victims of opportunity”! And he said they probably live within a few blocks.
(note: Hazelwood is talking about peepers and is not mentioning rapists.)
Edmond, Oklahoma, A peeper (Jonathan Graham) entered the house with intent to rape. When he unexpectedly encountered a male in the hallway, he stabbed him to death. He then proceeded to raped the woman.
Hazelwood's Profile: Age 22 to 27, Education: hi school graduate.

Hazelwood said the KILLERS WEIGHT WOULD FLUCTUATE, would have been traumatized from unexpectedly killing a person. Hazelwood said the perpetrator would look for a LEGITIMATE REASON TO LEAVE TOWN.
As Hazelwood predicted Graham did lose weight after the crime and found an excuse to leave town -- he joined the army.

NOTE the similarity: DeAngelo, did find an excuse to leave Visalia after the McGowen shooting, a change of jobs.
                              DeAngelo did lose weight which threw everyone off because of the discrepancy between the pudgy Ransacker and the thin EAR.

I've been trying without success to find another article about a profiler that said serial rapists tend to travel great distances.  I am now seeing how that ties into DeAngelo too.  He lived in Auburn and traveled to Contra Costa County, Stockton, Modesto, San Jose and So. California all while living in Auburn.  (There is an indication that at some point they did live in Los Angeles as their second daughter was born there in November 1986.)

First, agreed that O'Toole and D'Ambrosia did a marvelous job.

Second, re parallels in the Hazelwood analysis, it pays to keep in mind that if JJD was VR, he sure didn't seem very traumatized over killing Mr. Snelling. He kept burgling without missing a beat. If he was traumatized by anything, it was that he was almost caught by McGowan in a later incident.

Re serial rapists. I have a little professional experience in this area and all the home-invasion type perps that I knew (five different cases) tended to be very familiar with the areas where they struck. None of them lived "right there" but all of them lived or worked within a 10-15 minute drive.  

[Agent99 aka Sandia]

Jun 12, 2018 2:16:43 GMT Any of N said:

I don't know, Sandia. It's kind-of hard to brag on the profilers when their actual profiles didn't do much good. Joe DeAngelo wasn't even on anyone's radar until Paul Holes combined DNA with genealogy records. Nothing else helped worth a lick.

A lot of stuff in the profiles was standard for serial rapists/killers -- started out as a voyeur, advanced to home break-ins, sexual burglary, and so on. Likely had a criminal record. A lot of the rest was straightforward deduction based on the case files -- the offender was neat and tidy and owned a reliable car. He was lso smart and knew a thing or two about what he was doing.

A really and truly insightful profile would have included the following:

• In his late 20's to early 30's in June of '76.
• Played the role of a younger offender.
  
• Did not live within the crime zones but rather commuted from nearby communities.
  
• Very likely a cop or a former cop.
• Held a full-time job during most of the NorCal crime spree.
• Deliberately feigned the impression of elaborate stalking and prowling.
  
• Lost his full-time job shortly before the SoCal murders.
  

Mind you, I'm not saying it was possible to create such an accurate profile. Just that this is the sort of thing that would merit a bronze statue or two. DeAngelo might very well have been caught years ago if only we had been convinced he was a LEO.

I do recall that you yourself pushed the cop theory, Sandia. To that I say, kudos, and take a well-deserved bow. More well-deserved than the profilers, by the way.

Hi Any of N,  When I read your response on the board I was in such a hurry that I somehow didn't see the last sentence with your KUDO's to me. Thanks!

I've had several theories which most have been proven to be wrong except for possibly two.

One of those theories is the main reason I thought he must be a cop (along with other reasons). The main reason was my framing theory. It seemed all the people I think he tried to frame were known to the cops as problematic people.
Walter Hamilton in the book, that weird realtor "Frank Boham" in Lake Tahoe that was a suspected rapist or rapist wanna be. There was DKP, he was a small time drug dealer and one of the pens that were dropped at #6 had the name of the company his parents owned. The other pen that was dropped at a different victim's had the name of Bob's Cyclery and sure enough there was a problematic employee working there that cops had to spend their time on checking out. There was the security officer's badge dropped in front of a home in Concord that had the same unusual last name as someone on the EAR taskforce in Sacramento (that I think was not an attempt at framing, but a taunt at LE). So I've always wondered who would know all of these people that were known to the cops.  A cop! (but there was the possibility it was a person that was a clerk that worked for LE, or a parole officer, but put together with his abilities, I was worried it was a cop but I didn't want to believe it, such a scary thought, lately the cannibal cop is in the news and talk about scary! And he's suing for wrongful termination!?)

I just erroneously assumed that it couldn't be because the cops were on the look-out for a cop and would have found him. What a disappointment in LE that is for me.

I've fallen for his red herrings and so did a lot of people, like Paul Holes.
The map: Here is where Holes went down the rabbit hole. And I thought Holes was right.

The poem -- I was so convinced that it was taken from the writings of Ellen G. White, prophet of the Seventh Day Adventist church. So, wrong, wrong, wrong! I'll bet if he read the boards he thoroughly enjoyed that one. Well what I        have to say to him is from old Chinese proverb "He Who Laughs Last, Laughs best" bub.

The Sixth Grade Rant:  He was in Mr. Sato's 6th grade class. Wrong, wrong, wrong. He was too old to have been during the years Mr. Sato taught 6th grade.  It did occur to me that he dropped those 3 papers on purpose as his typical red herrings, but something I can't mention came to light really making it seem he was indeed in Mr. Sato's class.  LE was seriously onto that and researching it and that was not easy considering how long ago that was and the lack of records.

 Framing: I still am convinced he framed people and lately there is the podcast 12-26-75 saying Oscar Clifton was framed in Visalia while DeAngelo was a cop in Exeter and admits to being the VR. The podcast has a lot of very interesting things to say, but there are some things that I'm not so sure about. Jury is out for me on that one, but I am very interested. The podcasters say there is a whole family it looks like he tried to frame, tracking dogs leading them to various member's doorstep.  The families DNA was checked out clearing them all so it looks like he was targeting them for framing.  Perhaps they crossed him in his weirdo mind?   Anyway, I am still really interested in the framing theory.

Eva Taylor: I do believe he killed Eva Taylor. Santa Barbara did not but I am not sure if they still hold that opinion. They did not believe it because of the progression of violence theory.  Well that apparently doesn't hold true with him. So I am hoping we will have an answer on Eva Taylor, especially if they find his trophies, he took some very identifiable things of hers.

I just read your motto "esse est percipi". I had to google that one and then sat here thinking, staring off into space, trying to grasp the example for a while:  "if a tree falls in a forest and there is nobody to hear it does it make a noise" Thinking, thinking, thinking....conclusion: Yes it does. LOL

[Agent99 aka Sandia]

Jun 13, 2018 21:34:15 GMT zebra said:

Jun 11, 2018 3:06:44 GMT Agent99 aka Sandia said:

 
...
ROY HAZELWOOD, Profiler (another case with parallels to this case):

Roy Hazelwood said “peepers” choose victims of opportunity”! And he said they probably live within a few blocks.
(note: Hazelwood is talking about peepers and is not mentioning rapists.)
Edmond, Oklahoma, A peeper (Jonathan Graham) entered the house with intent to rape. When he unexpectedly encountered a male in the hallway, he stabbed him to death. He then proceeded to raped the woman.
Hazelwood's Profile: Age 22 to 27, Education: hi school graduate.

Hazelwood said the KILLERS WEIGHT WOULD FLUCTUATE, would have been traumatized from unexpectedly killing a person. Hazelwood said the perpetrator would look for a LEGITIMATE REASON TO LEAVE TOWN.
As Hazelwood predicted Graham did lose weight after the crime and found an excuse to leave town -- he joined the army.

NOTE the similarity: DeAngelo, did find an excuse to leave Visalia after the McGowen shooting, a change of jobs.
                              DeAngelo did lose weight which threw everyone off because of the discrepancy between the pudgy Ransacker and the thin EAR.

I've been trying without success to find another article about a profiler that said serial rapists tend to travel great distances.  I am now seeing how that ties into DeAngelo too.  He lived in Auburn and traveled to Contra Costa County, Stockton, Modesto, San Jose and So. California all while living in Auburn.  (There is an indication that at some point they did live in Los Angeles as their second daughter was born there in November 1986.)

First, agreed that O'Toole and D'Ambrosia did a marvelous job.

Second, re parallels in the Hazelwood analysis, it pays to keep in mind that if JJD was VR, he sure didn't seem very traumatized over killing Mr. Snelling. He kept burgling without missing a beat. If he was traumatized by anything, it was that he was almost caught by McGowan in a later incident.

Re serial rapists. I have a little professional experience in this area and all the home-invasion type perps that I knew (five different cases) tended to be very familiar with the areas where they struck. None of them lived "right there" but all of them lived within a 10-15 minute drive.  

What a great point!  You're right, he kept offending and burglarizing.  But, then again, he did lose a lot of weight.  I would guess that he probably immediately made plans to leave, probably had to sell his house, look for another job, probably didn't want to leave too soon so as not to call attention to himself, probably stopped offending in Visalia because it was too risky and also perhaps so they would think he left, but it is puzzling as to why he would keep offending in Exeter, and it is even more puzzling how LE in Visalia and Exeter didn't notice that. 

Do you think he wanted to stop and couldn't? Do you think his compulsion was just too strong.  

About the home invasion rapists, I think you are right about that too, but he also did travel great distances.  Living in Auburn and traveling to Modesto, Contra Costa County, San Jose and when he murdered traveling all the way to So. Cal.

I take it that they have found that his parents lived in 4 different homes in Rancho Cordova and he attacked all around there. He had a relative in Orangevale and did two attacks close by. In Orange County there were relatives, if I understand correctly, living in between Janelle and Manuela and they were only about 2 miles apart. Of course there is Visalia, and he lived there. He had relatives in Exeter and he worked in Exeter and it appears to me he was the Exeter Ransacker from what I gather from the podcast titled "12-26-75"  I think they are finding a lot of relatives living near where he attacked.

I'd really like to know the connection to Goleta and of course to Ventura and Dana Point as well.

I can't find the article I read, or perhaps it was some t.v. program.  If I recall correctly a profiler like Hazelwood or Ressler was the person explaining it.  They pointed out one case of a rapist that traveled something like 5 hours one way to just do surveillance, pick out a target and alternative targets.  He did this quite a few times.  Then when he actually drove the 5 hours to commit the crime, his desire to do it was gone, but he did anyway.  He was asked why, and I think he said because otherwise all those trips doing the surveillance would have been a waste of time.  That strange, stupid answer always stuck with me.  I wish I could find that program or article, it was fascinating.  So my idea that rapists were known to travel great distances basically came from what that profiler said.  I am not a professional in any field regarding psychology or crime, so I don't know what to believe when there are conflicting opinions.

There was Barry Dyson, rapist; Program: "Body Of Evidence" with retired FBI profiler Dayle Hinman, Episode: “The Phantom Rapist aka South Side Rapist“  He was very prolific, attacked in clusters but then started attacking in neighboring  jurisdictions thinking that LE would not compare notes.  I think he was right.  

I don't want to pry and if you prefer not to say please just ignore the question, but can you share what you do professionally.  It sounds VERY interesting.

[zebra]

I don't think we yet know enough about his entire situation to reconstruct his exit plan from Exeter. It could be that didn't feel the heat until McGowan's composite was published. It would be natural for him to want to change his appearance a bit at that point. It wouldn't be that hard to cut back on the junk food or to grow a mustache. It could just be that his wife had only recently finished (or was about to finish) her bachelor's degree at Fresno and that she wanted to look for job opportunities or apply to law school in the Sacramento area.

Above all, VR/EAR/ONS/GSK was a "predator" and most predators develop a preferred hunting ground - usually locations they know as well or better than their victims and someplace where they can fit easily into the environment. Why did this guy eventually range so far and strike so far away? I'd guess it had to do with just how prolific he became. Most of the serial offenders that I dealt with were caught after 10 or 15 known incidents. This guy struck at least that many times and several more before he started attacking outside of the Sacramento area.

Also, in the same way he was using fake accents, telling false stories about his background and leaving false clues, I think he was intentionally trying to create a pattern that would lead in the opposite direction of his home.

Could he just "stop" in 1986? I don't know if he did, but he could. At that point, he'd have been 40 years old, and not nearly so quick or agile as he'd been a decade earlier. And, if you assume these were sex-motivated crimes, his libido may have dropped off considerably. In addition to that, I'm guessing it's just like any other addiction. It's a lot easier to quit smoking or drinking if you have fewer opportunities to smoke or drink. If he had more of a 9-5 job, it may have just kept him too busy. By the 1990s, DNA was coming on the scene and that may have been another hurdle that gave him pause.

[riverstorum]

I keep seeing stuff like zebras last paragraph, and it doesnt really sit well with me. Rapists are all ages. They are all body and agility types. Rape isnt about libido, and its not like being a smoker. And rapists are busy and have 9-5 jobs (or more) just like anyone else.

[Any of N]

Jun 13, 2018 22:04:59 GMT Agent99 aka Sandia said:

Jun 12, 2018 2:16:43 GMT Any of N said:

I don't know, Sandia. It's kind-of hard to brag on the profilers when their actual profiles didn't do much good. Joe DeAngelo wasn't even on anyone's radar until Paul Holes combined DNA with genealogy records. Nothing else helped worth a lick.

A lot of stuff in the profiles was standard for serial rapists/killers -- started out as a voyeur, advanced to home break-ins, sexual burglary, and so on. Likely had a criminal record. A lot of the rest was straightforward deduction based on the case files -- the offender was neat and tidy and owned a reliable car. He was lso smart and knew a thing or two about what he was doing.

A really and truly insightful profile would have included the following:

• In his late 20's to early 30's in June of '76.
• Played the role of a younger offender.
  
• Did not live within the crime zones but rather commuted from nearby communities.
  
• Very likely a cop or a former cop.
• Held a full-time job during most of the NorCal crime spree.
• Deliberately feigned the impression of elaborate stalking and prowling.
  
• Lost his full-time job shortly before the SoCal murders.
  

Mind you, I'm not saying it was possible to create such an accurate profile. Just that this is the sort of thing that would merit a bronze statue or two. DeAngelo might very well have been caught years ago if only we had been convinced he was a LEO.

I do recall that you yourself pushed the cop theory, Sandia. To that I say, kudos, and take a well-deserved bow. More well-deserved than the profilers, by the way.

Hi Any of N,  When I read your response on the board I was in such a hurry that I somehow didn't see the last sentence with your KUDO's to me. Thanks!

I've had several theories which most have been proven to be wrong except for possibly two.

One of those theories is the main reason I thought he must be a cop (along with other reasons). The main reason was my framing theory. It seemed all the people I think he tried to frame were known to the cops as problematic people.
Walter Hamilton in the book, that weird realtor "Frank Boham" in Lake Tahoe that was a suspected rapist or rapist wanna be. There was DKP, he was a small time drug dealer and one of the pens that were dropped at #6 had the name of the company his parents owned. The other pen that was dropped at a different victim's had the name of Bob's Cyclery and sure enough there was a problematic employee working there that cops had to spend their time on checking out. There was the security officer's badge dropped in front of a home in Concord that had the same unusual last name as someone on the EAR taskforce in Sacramento (that I think was not an attempt at framing, but a taunt at LE). So I've always wondered who would know all of these people that were known to the cops.  A cop! (but there was the possibility it was a person that was a clerk that worked for LE, or a parole officer, but put together with his abilities, I was worried it was a cop but I didn't want to believe it, such a scary thought, lately the cannibal cop is in the news and talk about scary! And he's suing for wrongful termination!?)

I just erroneously assumed that it couldn't be because the cops were on the look-out for a cop and would have found him. What a disappointment in LE that is for me.

I've fallen for his red herrings and so did a lot of people, like Paul Holes.
The map: Here is where Holes went down the rabbit hole. And I thought Holes was right.

The poem -- I was so convinced that it was taken from the writings of Ellen G. White, prophet of the Seventh Day Adventist church. So, wrong, wrong, wrong! I'll bet if he read the boards he thoroughly enjoyed that one. Well what I        have to say to him is from old Chinese proverb "He Who Laughs Last, Laughs best" bub.

The Sixth Grade Rant:  He was in Mr. Sato's 6th grade class. Wrong, wrong, wrong. He was too old to have been during the years Mr. Sato taught 6th grade.  It did occur to me that he dropped those 3 papers on purpose as his typical red herrings, but something I can't mention came to light really making it seem he was indeed in Mr. Sato's class.  LE was seriously onto that and researching it and that was not easy considering how long ago that was and the lack of records.

 Framing: I still am convinced he framed people and lately there is the podcast 12-26-75 saying Oscar Clifton was framed in Visalia while DeAngelo was a cop in Exeter and admits to being the VR. The podcast has a lot of very interesting things to say, but there are some things that I'm not so sure about. Jury is out for me on that one, but I am very interested. The podcasters say there is a whole family it looks like he tried to frame, tracking dogs leading them to various member's doorstep.  The families DNA was checked out clearing them all so it looks like he was targeting them for framing.  Perhaps they crossed him in his weirdo mind?   Anyway, I am still really interested in the framing theory.

Eva Taylor: I do believe he killed Eva Taylor. Santa Barbara did not but I am not sure if they still hold that opinion. They did not believe it because of the progression of violence theory.  Well that apparently doesn't hold true with him. So I am hoping we will have an answer on Eva Taylor, especially if they find his trophies, he took some very identifiable things of hers.

I just read your motto "esse est percipi". I had to google that one and then sat here thinking, staring off into space, trying to grasp the example for a while:  "if a tree falls in a forest and there is nobody to hear it does it make a noise" Thinking, thinking, thinking....conclusion: Yes it does. LOL

When I listened to the recent 12-26-75 podcasts I immediately thought of you. As recently as three months ago the framing theory seemed like a stretch but definitely not anymore. DeAngelo layered on the deviousness, so why not try to frame somebody while he was at it?

Quite a few times over the years various posters would write, "Somebody out there knows something, and all it takes is that one tip." Hard to accept that it was more than a few cops who didn't put two-and-two together. Maybe it came down to this: They were willing to accept the concept of a dirty cop in the abstract but not in the immediate sense. A cop in another state? Sure. A cop in a nearby district? Maybe. A cop I work alongside with? Shrug and change the subject.

I get that they wanted no part of a witch hunt, but when a fellow cop is fired for petty theft and then threatens the chief? Check the guy out, if only for the sake of due diligence. Part of the answer probably lies in the info Almagata provided in a recent thread (Tension in the Auburn Police Department). Everyone was distracted at the time by departmental problems. But... There was always the opportunity to look back on the situation years later and think, hmmmm.

esse est percipi -- Yeah, I was just having a little fun with that, but there's a serious side. Truth unrecognized (or not perceived) might as well not be truth at all. With DeAngelo in custody we can say that somebody actually was out there in the woods to hear the tree fall.