So many possibilities...which scenarios are most likely?
Feb 23, 2014 16:45:05 GMT
albion, jigisup, and 1 more like this
Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2014 16:45:05 GMT
I think that many of us are most troubled by the same nagging doubt...we want to believe that the EAR is dead or in prison, but the chances of this are statistically lower than him being alive and well. Many people propose theories as to what he might be doing now, whether he is still committing crimes, whether he has burned out and simply relives his old conquests for gratification, whether someone close to him with influence found out what he was doing and threatened to drop the hammer if he reoffended; whether he married and settled down (I do not believe that he found a submissive spouse with whom he was able to satisfy his sick fantasies, because what got this guy off was fear, not pain. A wife who unwillingly was forced to take part in his sick fantasies would be disgusted and emotionally scarred, but I don't believe he would get the fear thrill from her for very long after which time she became accustomed to his deviant behaviours and came to accept them as an unpleasant but necessary part of the marriage). The possibilities are endless. And many posters have contributed their own thoughts as to what they think this guy is up to these days, some more plausible than others.
But I was hoping to create a thread where we could list only the most likely scenarios based on what we know about this type of offender, what we know about its offender in particular, and what we know about the criminal justice system and society in general. For me, there are a few things to take into consideration that are (in my view) more important than others in helping to make this determination. Below I've described a line of inquiry that I think might be the most fruitful avenue to explore, but I would like to hear from other posters and what they think tells us the most about where the offender is (let's assume he is not dead) and why he stopped offending. I know I am covering some well-trodden ground here, but I'm interested in hearing the less speculative theories, and instead compiling an evidence-backed list of information about the case that may provide clues to his whereabouts and his reasons for cooling off, and how that evidence might point us to where the offender is at this point and what he might be up to.
For me, the most intriguing line of inquiry in this respect is the long break between the offender's 1981 murderous attack on Cheri Domingo and Gregory Sanchez in Goleta, and his quiet period of five years before the murder of Janelle Cruz in Irvine, 1986. There is a lot of debate about what the offender may have been doing during that period of time, some more plausible than others. If he were incarcerated for another serious crime like rape, then the gap is easily explained. However, I imagine that law enforcement has explored this avenue thoroughly, cross-referencing prisoners in Cali and other states who went away for a home-invasion rape shortly after the Domingo and Sanchez murders that were released some time in the months leading up to the Janelle Cruz murder, and who was a viable suspect due to geography and profile. Not to say that the police would have been able to check every possible candidate, but my guess is that LE has examined this avenue thoroughly with no results.
As a result, I think it is safe to assume that our offender was NOT in prison during its time, or not for a sexual offence like rape. Now we know that psychopaths are prolific criminals who engage in all kinds of offences, so there is a strong possibility he went away for a crime like drug trafficking or burglary in Cali or another state, and would be able to avoid the LE investigation of the aforementioned candidates in this manner. If this is the situation, we are S.o.o.L. An attempt to track him by cross-referencing criminals who went away for sex crimes matching the gSK or EAR MO during this time is most likely a dead end.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that the offender had a long cooling off period during which time something caused him to stop offending, even though he was at large in society. I think this might be the most fruitful avenue to pursue. What might the GSK have been doing during this time, and why did he have such a long cooling-off period?
Them there is the Janelle Cruz murder, which is a real aberration in a number of ways. The attack did fit with the GSK's MO, but was atypical in some ways that have been discussed in depth on this board and others. The attack really does seem to be a one-off, and not the kind of incident one would expect from a man who has been imprisoned for a crime, and biding their time until release when they could begin offending again (in to case, one would expect the crime spree to continue after Ms. Cruz, and not end after a single attack). Most likely, this offender found some other compelling reason to stop offending, and the Janelle Cruz murder was a relapse of sorts. If not, there would have been other GSK attacks before and after her murder. What could have happened after the Domingo/Sanchez murders that caused the GSK to stop, and what made him become active again for a single attack five years later, only to stop again...this time, for good (most likely)? I know that many posters have speculated on the many different scenarios (ie, finding religion {doubtful}, marriage; pressures by someone who had influence over him and new he was the offender; burning out - the Cruz murder actually seems to make this the most likely scenario because it was a one-off that does suggest a relapse that the offender did not repeat).
There are so many possibilities, but I am interested in zeroing in on the most likely based on what we know about psychopaths, serial sex offenders, and the offender himself. What could have made him stop willingly or unwillingly that does not include prison?
If we can solve the puzzle of the Cruz attack and why the GSK went quiet before and after, it, it might give us a better idea of what kind of person he is and whether or not he is still around (because if he's dead, I truly believe that luck is the only way his identity will be revealed. I think a lot of important EAR evidence has been destroyed on account of statute of limitations issues and perhaps an eagerness on the part of some officers to destroy evidence of incompetence). If we can profile him now as the person he might be currently, we may be able to open new areas of inquiry to help us zero in on him.
Finally, I want to take a moment to briefly explain my own theory about who this offender is, and explain the aberrations I mentioned earlier.
I believe the EAR was a soldier, officer, or reservist from a local military installation. His skill set and MO show extensive training in reconnaissance, home invasion, physical fitness, and the ability to subdue multiple victims and control the scene single-handedly, the use of meticulous planning and research, as well as a tactical and strategic approach to the crimes that suggest military training. The fact that there are several military installations in the immediate area, and some of the victims had connections to these bases makes this theory all the more likely. There are more than a few cases of soldiers deployed to Vietnam who picked up unsavoury habits there, and would have learned all the skills this offender displayed in his criminal acts. So service in Vietnam is a possibility, but not a necessity because many of the skills he employed are learned in basic training.
The 1981-86 break can be explained by an overseas deployment. A viable area of inquiry might be to find out where most soldiers from bases like Mathers were deployed in 1981 (Lebanon?), and then checking the area around those overseas/out-of-state bases for unsolved crimes matching his MO. As we've come to learn recently, the USAF has a tendency to protect sex offenders in their midst, and he might have been known to be a sexual predator on the bases where he served, but was never brought to justice due to the military culture regarding treatment of sex offenders who are soldiers/sailors/airmen.
I think that a closer look at soldiers and/or reservists who lived in the Sac area during the attacks who were deployed overseas or out-of-state during 1981-86 might be a good place to start.
So, am I suggesting new lines of enquiry, or just covering well-trodden ground with this post?
But I was hoping to create a thread where we could list only the most likely scenarios based on what we know about this type of offender, what we know about its offender in particular, and what we know about the criminal justice system and society in general. For me, there are a few things to take into consideration that are (in my view) more important than others in helping to make this determination. Below I've described a line of inquiry that I think might be the most fruitful avenue to explore, but I would like to hear from other posters and what they think tells us the most about where the offender is (let's assume he is not dead) and why he stopped offending. I know I am covering some well-trodden ground here, but I'm interested in hearing the less speculative theories, and instead compiling an evidence-backed list of information about the case that may provide clues to his whereabouts and his reasons for cooling off, and how that evidence might point us to where the offender is at this point and what he might be up to.
For me, the most intriguing line of inquiry in this respect is the long break between the offender's 1981 murderous attack on Cheri Domingo and Gregory Sanchez in Goleta, and his quiet period of five years before the murder of Janelle Cruz in Irvine, 1986. There is a lot of debate about what the offender may have been doing during that period of time, some more plausible than others. If he were incarcerated for another serious crime like rape, then the gap is easily explained. However, I imagine that law enforcement has explored this avenue thoroughly, cross-referencing prisoners in Cali and other states who went away for a home-invasion rape shortly after the Domingo and Sanchez murders that were released some time in the months leading up to the Janelle Cruz murder, and who was a viable suspect due to geography and profile. Not to say that the police would have been able to check every possible candidate, but my guess is that LE has examined this avenue thoroughly with no results.
As a result, I think it is safe to assume that our offender was NOT in prison during its time, or not for a sexual offence like rape. Now we know that psychopaths are prolific criminals who engage in all kinds of offences, so there is a strong possibility he went away for a crime like drug trafficking or burglary in Cali or another state, and would be able to avoid the LE investigation of the aforementioned candidates in this manner. If this is the situation, we are S.o.o.L. An attempt to track him by cross-referencing criminals who went away for sex crimes matching the gSK or EAR MO during this time is most likely a dead end.
This leaves us with the strong possibility that the offender had a long cooling off period during which time something caused him to stop offending, even though he was at large in society. I think this might be the most fruitful avenue to pursue. What might the GSK have been doing during this time, and why did he have such a long cooling-off period?
Them there is the Janelle Cruz murder, which is a real aberration in a number of ways. The attack did fit with the GSK's MO, but was atypical in some ways that have been discussed in depth on this board and others. The attack really does seem to be a one-off, and not the kind of incident one would expect from a man who has been imprisoned for a crime, and biding their time until release when they could begin offending again (in to case, one would expect the crime spree to continue after Ms. Cruz, and not end after a single attack). Most likely, this offender found some other compelling reason to stop offending, and the Janelle Cruz murder was a relapse of sorts. If not, there would have been other GSK attacks before and after her murder. What could have happened after the Domingo/Sanchez murders that caused the GSK to stop, and what made him become active again for a single attack five years later, only to stop again...this time, for good (most likely)? I know that many posters have speculated on the many different scenarios (ie, finding religion {doubtful}, marriage; pressures by someone who had influence over him and new he was the offender; burning out - the Cruz murder actually seems to make this the most likely scenario because it was a one-off that does suggest a relapse that the offender did not repeat).
There are so many possibilities, but I am interested in zeroing in on the most likely based on what we know about psychopaths, serial sex offenders, and the offender himself. What could have made him stop willingly or unwillingly that does not include prison?
If we can solve the puzzle of the Cruz attack and why the GSK went quiet before and after, it, it might give us a better idea of what kind of person he is and whether or not he is still around (because if he's dead, I truly believe that luck is the only way his identity will be revealed. I think a lot of important EAR evidence has been destroyed on account of statute of limitations issues and perhaps an eagerness on the part of some officers to destroy evidence of incompetence). If we can profile him now as the person he might be currently, we may be able to open new areas of inquiry to help us zero in on him.
Finally, I want to take a moment to briefly explain my own theory about who this offender is, and explain the aberrations I mentioned earlier.
I believe the EAR was a soldier, officer, or reservist from a local military installation. His skill set and MO show extensive training in reconnaissance, home invasion, physical fitness, and the ability to subdue multiple victims and control the scene single-handedly, the use of meticulous planning and research, as well as a tactical and strategic approach to the crimes that suggest military training. The fact that there are several military installations in the immediate area, and some of the victims had connections to these bases makes this theory all the more likely. There are more than a few cases of soldiers deployed to Vietnam who picked up unsavoury habits there, and would have learned all the skills this offender displayed in his criminal acts. So service in Vietnam is a possibility, but not a necessity because many of the skills he employed are learned in basic training.
The 1981-86 break can be explained by an overseas deployment. A viable area of inquiry might be to find out where most soldiers from bases like Mathers were deployed in 1981 (Lebanon?), and then checking the area around those overseas/out-of-state bases for unsolved crimes matching his MO. As we've come to learn recently, the USAF has a tendency to protect sex offenders in their midst, and he might have been known to be a sexual predator on the bases where he served, but was never brought to justice due to the military culture regarding treatment of sex offenders who are soldiers/sailors/airmen.
I think that a closer look at soldiers and/or reservists who lived in the Sac area during the attacks who were deployed overseas or out-of-state during 1981-86 might be a good place to start.
So, am I suggesting new lines of enquiry, or just covering well-trodden ground with this post?
