Was LE not monitoring the ProBoard?

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 16:36:45 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Sept 21, 2020 13:40:07 GMT sammyt said:

Holes mentions it himself.  JJD was the last Parabon suspect to be considered.

Holes didn't bother to research into Joe DeAngelo, even when he had the name, and we know Joe left a fairly large trail of newspaper articles over the years.  

"Hey Paul... what about this former cop, who looks exactly like McGowen's sketch, had an ex fiancee called Bonnie, left Exeter after the Snelling murder, moved to Auburn and got sacked by the police for stealing dog repellent in the heart of EAR country, just as the EAR series ended?"

"Nah... the guy is at least a year too old, lots of cops get arrested and EAR was a burglar not a shoplifter, the Visalia ransacker had nothing to do with any of this and all the cops have already all been cleared anyway... put this guy at the bottom of the list".

"Ok boss, but you sure you don't want to have a look at this stuff I've found online?  Looks like this is the guy..."

"No, no.  I'm too busy with this huge list of other potential DNA suspects.  If I do get a bit of time, I'll go and sit outside this guy's house for a while if that will make you feel any better..."

Hi Sammy,

You state that Mr. Paul Holes had said the following: "JJD was the last Parabon suspect to be considered."

If he did indeed state that JJD was the last Parabon subject to be considered, it means nothing. There were other subjects that needed to be vetted, too, and it sounds like it was an appropriate process of elimination.

This case would have never been solved without Mr. Paul Holes taking the ball and running with it. He never gave up on this case, and otherwise, JJD would not be sitting behind cold, steel bars today.

Fair play to Holes for not giving up, but how does that sound like an appropriate process of elimination?

You run a quick check for criminal records, court records, address records and newspaper articles, and then start with the most likely perp (ie. the guy who was arrested for stealing dog repellent in RC as the EAR series ended/who went to The College of Sequoias while Claude Snelling taught there/who transferred from Exeter as the VR series ended/who was engaged to and jilted by a woman called Bonnie/who looked just like the McGowen sketch in his police photo etc etc).

Unless every other suspect was somehow better than this on paper, then it's obvious that Holes didn't bother to do any of this.

[Red909XMZ1]

Sept 21, 2020 17:05:40 GMT sammyt said:

Sept 21, 2020 16:36:45 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Hi Sammy,

You state that Mr. Paul Holes had said the following: "JJD was the last Parabon suspect to be considered."

If he did indeed state that JJD was the last Parabon subject to be considered, it means nothing. There were other subjects that needed to be vetted, too, and it sounds like it was an appropriate process of elimination.

This case would have never been solved without Mr. Paul Holes taking the ball and running with it. He never gave up on this case, and otherwise, JJD would not be sitting behind cold, steel bars today.

Fair play to Holes for not giving up, but how does that sound like an appropriate process of elimination?

You run a quick check for criminal records, court records, address records and newspaper articles, and then start with the most likely perp (ie. the guy who was arrested for stealing dog repellent in RC as the EAR series ended/who went to The College of Sequoias while Claude Snelling taught there/who transferred from Exeter as the VR series ended/who was engaged to and jilted by a woman called Bonnie/who looked just like the McGowen sketch in his police photo etc etc).

Unless every other suspect was somehow better than this on paper, then it's obvious that Holes didn't bother to do any of this.

You make it sound so easy to eliminate people; however, I believe it was likely an extremely arduous process.

None of us know what the exact protocols were for eliminating these individuals, nor do we know who were the exact people that were involved in the vetting process.

We also do not know what their thought processes were. The process you describe in your post are very simplistic, and do not account for a multitude of unknown variables thrown into the mix.

Old, gumshoe detective methods likely were not only employed -- at least, I sincerely hope not. One would hope with advanced technology would come advanced methods of investigation.

What I am trying to convey is that I believe it is a mistake to make assumptions. You know that old saying, "To assume, makes an a$$ out of you and me" -- well, it could very well be applied here.

[sammyt]

It didn't really matter now anyway. Holes and co were going to work through all the names.

But let's not pretend that any of the other Parabon suspects looked better on paper than JJD. Whatever 'advanced methods of investigation' you might use.

I'm sure Holes and his team used the cutting edge methods of 'current age' and 'current address'. Hence JJD not standing out as the obvious suspect, which he would have immediately to anyone running a background check.

[elir]

FYI they didn't simply look at current address.

With the family trees, they had to back track to a common ancestor and then build up the tree moving forward, eliminating people based on sex, age, and the person's geographic location during the period of the crimes.

There was a candidate that was in Oregon in 2018 but who had been in the general Sac area during the 1970s, was in the estimated age range etc. He was tested and eliminated.

I am amending my post - the content above was from what Holes has repeated in various interviews, but in the story below, it looks somewhat different. In particular, Holes had previously stated that it took 4 months to do the tree and narrow it down to JJD yet this story implies it took far longer.

www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-genealogy-site-serial-killer-20180427-story.html

Police using genetic sites misidentified Oregon man as Golden State serial killer suspect in 2017

 By Michael Balsamo and Jonathan J. Cooper and Gillian Flaccus
Associated Press | Apr 28, 2018 at 9:39 AM

SACRAMENTO, CALIF. — Investigators hunting for the so-called Golden State Killer turned to searching genetic websites in 2017 but misidentified an Oregon man as a potential suspect. A year later, after using a similar technique, they are confident they've caught the serial rapist and killer who eluded capture for four decades.

In March 2017, an Oregon City police officer, working at the request of investigators in California, convinced a judge to order a 73-year-old man in a nursing home to provide a DNA sample.

Court documents obtained by The Associated Press said detectives used a genetic profile based off DNA from crime scenes linked to the serial killer and compared it to information on a free online genealogical site.

Investigators cited a rare genetic marker, which the Oregon man shared with the killer, to get the judge to issue the order. The Oregon City man is in extremely poor health in a rehabilitation facility and was unable to answer questions Friday.

His daughter said his family was not aware that authorities took a DNA sample from him while he was lying in bed at the rehabilitation center until she was contacted by the FBI in April 2017 and asked to help expand the family's genetic tree in the search for suspects.

The woman, an amateur genealogist, cooperated, but ultimately investigators determined none of her relatives were viable suspects, she said. The woman spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because she did not want the family's name publicly linked to the case.

"I don't like that they thought that my dad was the bad guy, but the truth is they were able to rule out people in my dad's (family) tree," she said. "They didn't have to look at those people anymore."

The family was angry the FBI had not told them about the sample but felt better after reading an AP story that investigators obtained a warrant, she said.

"I mean, they go from California to Oregon to get my dad's DNA? They clearly thought he was the bad guy," she said. "I think DNA is amazing and if you've done something wrong you don't deserve to be protected."

Ultimately investigators turned to a different genealogical site and arrested a man who they say was one of California's most feared and elusive serial killers.

On Friday, Joseph James DeAngelo appeared in court to face murder charges. Handcuffed to a wheelchair in orange jail scrubs, the 72-year-old looked dazed and spoke in a faint voice to acknowledge he was represented by a public defender. He did not enter a plea.

DeAngelo, a former police officer, has been charged with eight counts of murder, and additional charges are expected, authorities said.

"We have the law to suggest that he is innocent until he's proven guilty," said his attorney, Diane Howard.

Investigators arrested DeAngelo on Tuesday after matching crime-scene DNA with genetic material stored in an online database by a distant relative. They relied on a different website than in the Oregon search, and did not seek a warrant for his DNA. Instead, they waited for him to discard items and swabbed them for DNA, which proved a conclusive match to evidence from crimes more than 30 years ago, they said.

The co-founder of the genealogy website used by authorities to help identify DeAngelo said on Friday that he had no idea its database was tapped by law enforcement.

The free genealogy website, which pools DNA profiles that people upload and share publicly to find relatives, said it has always informed users its database can be used for other purposes.

But the site's co-founder Curtis Rogers said the search was "done without our knowledge" and the company does not "hand out data."

Officials did not need a court order to access GEDmatch 's large database of genetic blueprints, lead investigator Paul Holes told the Mercury News in San Jose, California. Major commercial DNA companies say they do not give law enforcement access to their genetic data without a court order.

But critics warned the method could jeopardize privacy rights.

"People who submit DNA for ancestors testing are unwittingly becoming genetic informants on their innocent family," said Steve Mercer, chief attorney for the forensic division of the Maryland Office of the Public Defender.

"It seems crazy to say a police officer investigating a very serious crime can't do something your cousin can do," said Erin Murphy, a DNA expert and professor at New York University School of Law. "If an ordinary person can do this, why can't a cop? On the other hand, if an ordinary person had done this, we might think they shouldn't."

While most consumers would submit DNA to a commercial company such as Ancestry.com and 23andMe to create a genetic profile, the FBI did so for investigators, Holes told The New York Times.

The profile was then uploaded to GEDmatch using a fake profile and pseudonym, the Times reported. The site allows users to remain anonymous.

[Red909XMZ1]

Sept 21, 2020 17:42:04 GMT sammyt said:

It didn't really matter now anyway. Holes and co were going to work through all the names.

But let's not pretend that any of the other Parabon suspects looked better on paper than JJD. Whatever 'advanced methods of investigation' you might use.

I'm sure Holes and his team used the cutting edge methods of 'current age' and 'current address'. Hence JJD not standing out as the obvious suspect, which he would have immediately to anyone running a background check.

You stated, "I'm sure Holes..." -- bingo -- that is a problem. You are not sure of anything he and his team did, and in what order, at what time, etc...

Assumptions are just that: only assumptions, and are not facts.

If you are going to post on what he did or did not do, I would think it is only fair that you report only the facts.

The best way to do that is to contact him, and ask him yourself. He has a Twitter account.

I believe you would only want the facts to be written about you, if you were in his position.

[cherylh]

Your keys are always in the last place you look.

Because why would you keep looking for your keys when you've already found them?

Holes' comments are being misunderstood. There were numerous other suspects on the list in addition to JJD. Holes had checked out other suspects first. But he certainly kept JJD on the list, and checked him. 

He did check arrest records of people on the list generated by DNA matching. Many had arrest records for crimes far more serious than shoplifting. Many also had close ties to the areas in which the crimes took place.

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 18:05:36 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Sept 21, 2020 17:42:04 GMT sammyt said:

It didn't really matter now anyway. Holes and co were going to work through all the names.

But let's not pretend that any of the other Parabon suspects looked better on paper than JJD. Whatever 'advanced methods of investigation' you might use.

I'm sure Holes and his team used the cutting edge methods of 'current age' and 'current address'. Hence JJD not standing out as the obvious suspect, which he would have immediately to anyone running a background check.

You stated, "I'm sure Holes..." -- bingo -- that is a problem. You are not sure of anything he and his team did, and in what order, at what time, etc...

Assumptions are just that: only assumptions, and are not facts.

If you are going to post on what he did or did not do, I would think it is only fair that you report only the facts.

The best way to do that is to contact him, and ask him yourself. He has a Twitter account.

I believe you would only want the facts to be written about you, if you were in his position.

Well people are going to speculate.  You assume things yourself by suggesting Holes used some 'advanced methods of investigation', so what's the difference?

How do you know what protocol Holes used in order to place JJD bottom of his list of suspect names?

Whatever protocol Holes chose was useless anyway as he got the worst possible result.  JJD couldn't have been looked at later if Holes had picked the names out of a hat.

[murderinc]

youtu.be/IPpaCnbfjPM?t=798

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 18:28:14 GMT cherylh said:

Your keys are always in the last place you look.

Because why would you keep looking for your keys when you've already found them?

Holes' comments are being misunderstood. There were numerous other suspects on the list in addition to JJD. Holes had checked out other suspects first. But he certainly kept JJD on the list, and checked him. 

He did check arrest records of people on the list generated by DNA matching. Many had arrest records for crimes far more serious than shoplifting. Many also had close ties to the areas in which the crimes took place.

I'd love to see one POI who looked better on paper than JJD, let alone numerous ones.

I think Holes was possibly blinded by his belief that EAR wasn't the VR.  Otherwise the Exeter and COS links would have stood out a mile.

Any veteran of this case would have broken out in a cold sweat the moment they read about a cop who went to COS, and then got caught stealing dog repellent in RC.

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 18:33:03 GMT murderinc said:

youtu.be/IPpaCnbfjPM?t=798

Lol Holes spoke to Willick but "still wasn't convinced".

Seriously?

[Red909XMZ1]

Sept 21, 2020 18:32:52 GMT sammyt said:

Sept 21, 2020 18:05:36 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

You stated, "I'm sure Holes..." -- bingo -- that is a problem. You are not sure of anything he and his team did, and in what order, at what time, etc...

Assumptions are just that: only assumptions, and are not facts.

If you are going to post on what he did or did not do, I would think it is only fair that you report only the facts.

The best way to do that is to contact him, and ask him yourself. He has a Twitter account.

I believe you would only want the facts to be written about you, if you were in his position.

Well people are going to speculate.  You assume things yourself by suggesting Holes used some 'advanced methods of investigation', so what's the difference?

How do you know what protocol Holes used in order to place JJD bottom of his list of suspect names?

Whatever protocol Holes chose was useless anyway as he got the worst possible result.  JJD couldn't have been looked at later if Holes had picked the names out of a hat.

Your post makes no sense. I stated none of what you said I stated.

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 19:40:32 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Sept 21, 2020 18:32:52 GMT sammyt said:

Well people are going to speculate.  You assume things yourself by suggesting Holes used some 'advanced methods of investigation', so what's the difference?

How do you know what protocol Holes used in order to place JJD bottom of his list of suspect names?

Whatever protocol Holes chose was useless anyway as he got the worst possible result.  JJD couldn't have been looked at later if Holes had picked the names out of a hat.

Your post makes no sense. I stated none of what you said I stated.

Let's leave it then.  We're not going to agree on this, and people can make up their own minds about the deductive skills of Paul Holes.

Paul Holes interview:

youtu.be/IPpaCnbfjPM?t=798

[Red909XMZ1]

Sept 21, 2020 19:51:08 GMT sammyt said:

Sept 21, 2020 19:40:32 GMT Red909XMZ1 said:

Your post makes no sense. I stated none of what you said I stated.

Let's leave it then.  We're not going to agree on this, and people can make up their own minds about the deductive skills of Paul Holes.

Paul Holes interview:

youtu.be/IPpaCnbfjPM?t=798

Yes, let's just agree to disagree.

[V]

Sept 21, 2020 13:40:07 GMT sammyt said:

Sept 21, 2020 11:45:34 GMT V said:

Where did you get this information? 

Holes mentions it himself.  JJD was the last Parabon suspect to be considered.

Holes didn't bother to research into Joe DeAngelo, even when he had the name, and we know Joe left a fairly large trail of newspaper articles over the years.  

"Hey Paul... what about this former cop, who looks exactly like McGowen's sketch, had an ex fiancee called Bonnie, left Exeter after the Snelling murder, moved to Auburn and got sacked by the police for stealing dog repellent in the heart of EAR country, just as the EAR series ended?"

"Nah... the guy is at least a year too old, lots of cops get arrested and EAR was a burglar not a shoplifter, the Visalia ransacker had nothing to do with any of this and all the cops have already all been cleared anyway... put this guy at the bottom of the list".

"Ok boss, but you sure you don't want to have a look at this stuff I've found online?  Looks like this is the guy..."

"No, no.  I'm too busy with this huge list of other potential DNA suspects.  If I do get a bit of time, I'll go and sit outside this guy's house for a while if that will make you feel any better..."

Where did Holes say this? In a podcast? Is there a quote in an article or something? 

[sammyt]

Sept 21, 2020 20:12:13 GMT V said:

Sept 21, 2020 13:40:07 GMT sammyt said:

Holes mentions it himself.  JJD was the last Parabon suspect to be considered.

Holes didn't bother to research into Joe DeAngelo, even when he had the name, and we know Joe left a fairly large trail of newspaper articles over the years.  

"Hey Paul... what about this former cop, who looks exactly like McGowen's sketch, had an ex fiancee called Bonnie, left Exeter after the Snelling murder, moved to Auburn and got sacked by the police for stealing dog repellent in the heart of EAR country, just as the EAR series ended?"

"Nah... the guy is at least a year too old, lots of cops get arrested and EAR was a burglar not a shoplifter, the Visalia ransacker had nothing to do with any of this and all the cops have already all been cleared anyway... put this guy at the bottom of the list".

"Ok boss, but you sure you don't want to have a look at this stuff I've found online?  Looks like this is the guy..."

"No, no.  I'm too busy with this huge list of other potential DNA suspects.  If I do get a bit of time, I'll go and sit outside this guy's house for a while if that will make you feel any better..."

Where did Holes say this? In a podcast? Is there a quote in an article or something? 

The video link is in this thread.  Holes still wasn't convinced about JJD even when Willick told him all that had happened after the shoplifting arrest.